Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[PragmaticPopulist]

Based on the Gallup 50-state poll and the partisan lean of states, here's what a battleground map might look like if the election were held now:

I find it hard to believe Trump is in negative territory in Indiana and Texas, and just barely in positive territory in Missouri and Mississippi. I'm also skeptical that he's +5 in Utah. A lot of Mormons just voted for him as an anti-Clinton vote.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The only state that he won in which his disapproval rate is at 50 or lower is Nevada... and that state is at 50. His barest win in 2016 (New Hampshire) gives him a 60% disapproval rate.

I don't know if I'm reading this wrong or not, but Trump did not win Nevada and New Hampshire.

But Trump does not have as much room for losses. He excited populist sentiments and then sold out the masses who voted for him. In the Midwest he is becoming a d@mnable city-slicker. In the South he is becoming a worse d@mnyankee than Barack Obama.  It is hard to see anyone heading in his direction unless he expects tax cuts or sweetheart deals.

Reminds me of what Fmr. Gov. Pat McCrory did. He campaigned as a pragmatist in his initial election in 2012, and did rather well for a Republican in North Carolina's urban areas. By 2016, he was trying to win reelection by banking on social conservatives with his bathroom bill, which was toxic in the state's urban centers. Only difference is that Trump is doing the opposite: he won with a huge turnout among rural voters, and is now banking on hard-line conservatives with the health care bill and yuge tax breaks for the top 1%.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

The big cities of America like Los Angeles are just as every bit of American as the small, rural communities like Elliott County.

Every American is a "real" American, just as every part of America is "real" America. Enough of these dumbass Republicans trying to pretend they're somehow more American than others. I know it's hard for them to accept that not everyone is White, straight, cisgender, and Christian like in their idealized suburbs and small towns, but facts are facts. They may not like urban and coastal America, but we don't like them either. But we do have to tolerate each other. And funny thing is, you never hear us claiming they're not "real" America. They're the ones who're culturally and demographically out of touch with present-day America.

The whole "real" vs "fake" America debate is a way of stoking cultural resentment, and it isn't just one party that does it. West Virginia is just as American as California and vice versa. Liberals calling people in rural America dumb and uneducated and conservatives calling cities crime-infested places of despair is directed at their respective bases, while alienating potential persuadable voters. Goes to show why rural America is increasingly Republican while urban America is increasingly Democratic.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Either his approval has improved slightly, or the Quinnipiac poll from last week was an outlier. I think the safest place to put his approval right now is in the mid-to-high 30s.

[PragmaticPopulist]

My takeaways from the Marist poll:

• 37% of Republicans say the government has gone too far in expanding the right to protest or criticize the government
• Democrats are about evenly divided on whether Confederate Statues should be removed or not: 44% remain, 47% remove
• 43% of non-college Whites agree with the beliefs of BLM, compared to 40% who disagree

I really don't like generalizing entire segments of the electorate, but after reading every statistic from the poll, I can't help but come to the conclusion that Republicans are more tribal than Democrats.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

Rasmussen, August 17, 2017

Approve 40% (24% strongly)
Disapprove 59% (49% strongly)

Also...

Wow. All the congressional leaders have even worse approval ratings than Trump. Crazy.

I can sort of understand the low approval for Pelosi and McConnell given that they have been objects of hate for the opposing party for years and years (and McConnell is evil incarnated, of course). But what the hell have Paul Ryan and Chuck Schumer done to deserve this?

Personally, I do hate McConnell passionately, but I don't have strong feelings towards Paul Ryan either way. And I like Pelosi and Schumer quite a lot.

Schumer is actually pretty popular for a congessional leader. Pelosi is more popular than Mitch or Paul.

Ryan's probably unpopular because of health care and that Democrats see him as enabling Trump, and Republicans don't like him because they think he wasn't strong enough in his support for Trump.

But yeah, congressional leaders are generally the bogeymen for the opposing side, so they're naturally pretty unpopular. Schumer might be less unpopular because he's relatively new to the national scene, and he hasn't (yet) been a majority leader.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Never exactly understood why Hawaii is usually so pro-incumbent. What's even more interesting is that New Jersey also seems to be souring even more than it already was on Trump, but it's usually another Pro-incumbent state. I wonder if it has to do with Trump's close association to Christie?