2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Anna Komnene]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

Why don't you think a democrat could become Speaker in a 50/50 situation?

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

Why don't you think a democrat could become Speaker in a 50/50 situation?

I guess it could happen, I'm just thinking that if Democrats hold more bargaining chips, they can give Republicans the Speakership in exchange for control of most if not all the committees. I really don't know what the mindset of Democratic leadership will be in potential negotiations though. This'll be interesting for sure.

[Virginiá]

Idk. I think 2019 could be even better for VA Dems. Think of all the other special elections we've had under similar conditions as 2019 is likely to have. Highly energized Dems and malaised Republicans leading to a bloodbath. Believe it or not, it looks like Gillespie might have saved Republicans from totally losing the HoD by getting more Republican voters to turnout than they did in 2009 and 2013.

Yeah, I think I have to agree with this one. As far as I know, most if not all of these districts were Clinton district or maybe a couple marginal Trump districts. They wouldn't be impossible to hold. I also think it's reasonably possible the HoD has a slightly altered map by 2019 due to some ongoing map-related lawsuit(s), which would soften up Republicans even more.

[_]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

[Oryxslayer]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

[Skill and Chance]

Idk. I think 2019 could be even better for VA Dems. Think of all the other special elections we've had under similar conditions as 2019 is likely to have. Highly energized Dems and malaised Republicans leading to a bloodbath. Believe it or not, it looks like Gillespie might have saved Republicans from totally losing the HoD by getting more Republican voters to turnout than they did in 2009 and 2013.

Yeah, I think I have to agree with this one. As far as I know, most if not all of these districts were Clinton district or maybe a couple marginal Trump districts. They wouldn't be impossible to hold. I also think it's reasonably possible the HoD has a slightly altered map by 2019 due to some ongoing map-related lawsuit(s), which would soften up Republicans even more.

Yes, if SCOTUS rules for the plaintiffs in any of the ongoing redistricting cases, the VA legislature should go Dem for good in 2019.  It will happen on the current maps if Trump's approval sinks any further. 

[Cashew]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

[Nyvin]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

Yes.

The only districts to go to recount are 27, 28, 40, and 94.

District 84 went to GOP.   68 and 85 went to Dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

yep

[Oryxslayer]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

Yes though Reps have the present advantage in all 4 - though with caveats.

In 27 and 28, it is a simple Rep lead, check the previous page for the vote margin.
In 40, Dems had a lead, but some votes were found on a recanvas for the Rep. I won't be suprised if this one changes during the recount.
In 94, the Rep leads by 12(!) votes. This is the battleground, and could even change on provisionals. There are 50ish in Newport news, and this is one of two seats inside the city. Dems tend to do well on the provisionals, so they could make gains solely if all provisionals are counted.

[Skill and Chance]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

yep

I think it's going to end up tied 50/50.  I would be very surprised if the Dem doesn't pick up the Newport News seat with provisionals.  The Republican only leads by 12 votes out of 23,000.  I figured one of the Dem leading seats would flip back, and it appears that's what happened.  There's still an outside chance of 51D/49R with the 86 vote R lead in HD-28 going to a recount.

[Virginiá]

@heatcharger: Do you know if DK or anyone else will put out Northam's win by state Senate district? This would good to look out for 2019. There are already a bunch of Republican-held Clinton districts, but I'm curious if Northam picked up any new ones. I'd expect at least one or two.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

@heatcharger: Do you know if DK or anyone else will put out Northam's win by state Senate district? This would good to look out for 2019. There are already a bunch of Republican-held Clinton districts, but I'm curious if Northam picked up any new ones. I'd expect at least one or two.

They should be up on VPAP eventually.

[heatcharger]

@heatcharger: Do you know if DK or anyone else will put out Northam's win by state Senate district? This would good to look out for 2019. There are already a bunch of Republican-held Clinton districts, but I'm curious if Northam picked up any new ones. I'd expect at least one or two.

They should be up on VPAP eventually.

Yeah just have this page bookmarked. Also eventually they'll update the maps for each HoD district, and I assume since they're probably putting in all the precinct data, they'll have the State Senate results as well. They have all the good stuff eventually.

Speaking of which, this should put a lot of fear into Barbara Comstock's heart:

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Democrats have been so notorious for losing ground in state races, I didn't think that something like this would happen.  Now, if they could do it in places like MI, WI, PA, MN, and places where the Democrats carry for President, they'd be onto something.

[Keep cool-idge]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

Congratulations on being the only one to get this right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats have been so notorious for losing ground in state races, I didn't think that something like this would happen.  Now, if they could do it in places like MI, WI, PA, MN, and places where the Democrats carry for President, they'd be onto something.

The Democrats did win multiple upsets in regards to county seats in Pennsylvania last night. We also elected our first transgender state politician. The Ds also swept 3/4 of the open superior court seats.

[Devils30]

The VA State Senate is going to flip easily in 2019 if last night was any indication. With the GOP still holding the presidency is probably 90% likely based on those Clinton northern VA seats. Dems need 1 seat there and probably can get 2-4. The House could be easy, just put a ton of pressure on 2-6 seats, win a couple. This will mean Dems will CONTROL redistricting in 2021.

VA-1 probably becomes a Prince William D leaning district and VA-7 a Henrico one. Dems can also adjust VA-2 to include more of Norfolk. Dems can create at least a 8-4 map if not 9-3 or 8-3-1. Remember, VA is gaining a seat in 2020 census.

[Lachi]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

Congratulations on being the only one to get this right.

We don't know the final results in every district, so you really can't say that yet.

[Bojack Horseman]

If it goes 50-50, then the two parties will elect co-speakers and form a power sharing agreement. One bitter VA Republican on Facebook complained that because Gillespie won so many more counties than Northam that the election must be rigged and that the state should adopt an electoral college for the governor election so a Democrat can never win again lol.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Virginia and DC suburbs continue to trend Democrat, Virginia becomes Washington state in terms of voting Democrat by 2022.

[Dr. Arch]

If the Virginia and DC suburbs continue to trend Democrat, Virginia becomes Washington state in terms of voting Democrat by 2022.

Freedom State

[Keep cool-idge]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

Congratulations on being the only one to get this right.

We don't know the final results in every district, so you really can't say that yet.

Well he said 52-48 republican and he’s anywhere from 0 seats off to 5 seats off.
I can’t name anyone else who even got close.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Virginia and DC suburbs continue to trend Democrat, Virginia becomes Washington state in terms of voting Democrat by 2022.

VA wont become more Democratic than OR .


VA was I believe +3 Dem , Oregon is + 8 Dem