2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Skill and Chance]

^

Apparently Fairfax breaks it.

Also, the DDHQ thing assumes that nothing changes in recounts, a dangerous assumption. Two apparent dem wins, 40 and 68, will definitely go to recounts, and 85 might.

Fairfax can't tiebreak in the HoD.  He can only do that in the State Senate.  They would have to make a power sharing deal or get someone to switch parties if it's 50/50.

The most likely to change in a recount by far is Yancey's 12 vote win in HD-94.  That one might actually flip just from provisionals being counted.  Also, the Republican wins in 27 and 28 are closer than the Democratic win in 68.  I think a 51D/49R might actually be the most likely outcome.

[Skill and Chance]

Idk. I think 2019 could be even better for VA Dems. Think of all the other special elections we've had under similar conditions as 2019 is likely to have. Highly energized Dems and malaised Republicans leading to a bloodbath. Believe it or not, it looks like Gillespie might have saved Republicans from totally losing the HoD by getting more Republican voters to turnout than they did in 2009 and 2013.

Yeah, I think I have to agree with this one. As far as I know, most if not all of these districts were Clinton district or maybe a couple marginal Trump districts. They wouldn't be impossible to hold. I also think it's reasonably possible the HoD has a slightly altered map by 2019 due to some ongoing map-related lawsuit(s), which would soften up Republicans even more.

Yes, if SCOTUS rules for the plaintiffs in any of the ongoing redistricting cases, the VA legislature should go Dem for good in 2019.  It will happen on the current maps if Trump's approval sinks any further. 

[Skill and Chance]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

yep

I think it's going to end up tied 50/50.  I would be very surprised if the Dem doesn't pick up the Newport News seat with provisionals.  The Republican only leads by 12 votes out of 23,000.  I figured one of the Dem leading seats would flip back, and it appears that's what happened.  There's still an outside chance of 51D/49R with the 86 vote R lead in HD-28 going to a recount.

[Skill and Chance]

There are approx. 1000 military ballots outstanding in the county that entirely contains HD-28, apparently because someone forgot to check the PO box on election day.  Highly likely the GOP margin there increases after they are counted.  I do think HD-94  flips in the recount, but it's basically going to be 50/50 or 51R/49D now unless there's another large error in the Fairfax district that flipped in the recanvass. 

[Skill and Chance]

what a joke

What exactly is a joke about all this?

lol the democratic process sucks amirite XD

...the fact that it literally takes months of a convoluted procedure to figure out who won a race when in almost every other developed democracy you know it for sure in at most a week (and usually within a few hours of polls closing)?

That's right, nothing to see here! American democracy is already great!

To be fair, this is the recount process. We know the official winner 99% of the time on election night, and results, as shown here, are certified a week later. The only places I can think of that have quick recounts are FPTP Westminster systems like the UK, where a recount in a constituency is a regular procedure and happens frequently every election night. Hell, compare this to the Austrian Presidential election where the second round had 7 months between the virtually tied first vote and court ruled binding second vote.

Why does it took so long to certify? well, the state gives time for those who cast provisional ballots to show up at the county offices and present their ID.

Also, the size of Westminster constituencies in the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. is on par with the size of a state level lower house seat in a large state.  Other than the Indian Parliament and Brazilian Senate, you don't really have any democratically elected foreign legislatures with district sizes that compare to the US House and Senate, or, for that matter, the CA and TX Senates (which have larger districts than US House seats!).