2018 New Brunswick election

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Keep in mind that the most successful "third party" in recent NB history was the Confederation of Regions, who got 21% and 8 seats in 1991, good enough for Official Opposition.  (They lost them all in 1995.  Though not as aggressively anti-bilingual, the People's Alliance *might* be considered as something of a successor.)

Also re the NDP, ever since the 90s Alexa leadership they seem to have been stronger federally than provincially--they actually won *two* NB seats in 1997, and IIRC didn't sink below 15% in any NB riding in 2011, and the Yvon Godin "Bloc Acadien" effect was still evident in 2015 (though not enough to win seats)

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If the race tightened a little bit, I could see the Tories losing  Edmunston-Madawaska Centre but picking up marginal Anglo seats like Carleton-Victoria, Charlotte-Campobello, Fredericton North, and Saint John Harbour. That would give them a slim majority, and its quite conceivable that they could dothat while losing the PV by 5%.

Will Dominic Cardy be running?  I can see him going for Fred N or StJ Harbour, at least if he's representing a Red Tory faction...

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Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

At 7%, I doubt the latter.

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Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

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Actually, this thread's been surprisingly *active" for a pre-election thread for a place as supposedly mundane as New Brunswick.

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Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

If PA + PC get more votes than Liberals and vote splitting costs the PCs the election, I think you will start to see the federal Tories be more concerned about Maxime Bernier's People's Party as in some ways this is a proxy for what might come federally with PCs being equivalent to the Tories and PA equivalent to the People's Party.

At least when it comes to New Brunswick--thanks to the CoR tradition, it's probably the next likeliest spot for the People's Party to be competitive after Beauce; but that could also turn out to be the "electable" limits of its reach...

[adma]

And remember: unlike the BCNDP, the NB PCs are *significantly* behind the Libs in vote totals, as opposed to seat totals.

One thing that eternally puzzles me about the NB NDP is why they've never had Acadian leadership or pursued anything other than a too-backhanded-for-its-own-good Acadian strategy--I mean, the federal Yvon Godin legacy together with the constituencies where they actually have shown provincial ballast (including in the present election) suggest that they could be making hay that way; but, no...

[adma]

And remember: unlike the BCNDP, the NB PCs are *significantly* behind the Libs in vote totals, as opposed to seat totals.

One thing that eternally puzzles me about the NB NDP is why they've never had Acadian leadership or pursued anything other than a too-backhanded-for-its-own-good Acadian strategy--I mean, the federal Yvon Godin legacy together with the constituencies where they actually have shown provincial ballast (including in the present election) suggest that they could be making hay that way; but, no...

Had Godin become leader years ago, think of how different things would've been...

Roger Duguay?

Aw, jeez, forgot about him.  (Then again, his tenure was kind of "forgettable".  Maybe he should have been more Bathurst-based, or something...)