Ohio 2012 Congressional Races

[TJ in Oregon]

So far we have (incumbents underlined and italicized) (and Here are fundraising numbers through December):

OH-1:
-Steve Chabot (R)
-Connie Pillich (D)

OH-2:
-Jean Schmidt(R)
-Brad Wenstrup (R)
-Frederick Kundrata (R)
-David Krikorian (D)

OH-3:
-Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
-Ted Celeste( D)
-Priscilla Tyson(D)
-Joyce Beatty (D)

OH-4:
-Jim Jordan(R)

OH-5:
-Bob Latta (R)
-Angela Kay Zimmerman(D)

OH-6:
-Bill Johnson (R)
-Charlie Wilson(D)

OH-7:
-Bob Gibbs (R)
-Zach Space(D)

OH-8:
-John Boehner (R)
-John Lewis(R)

OH-9:
-Marcy Kaptur (D)
-Dennis Kucinich (D)
-Graham Veysey(D)
-Samuel Wurzelbacher(R)
-Steven Kraus(R)

OH-10:
-Mike Turner (R)
-John D. Anderson(R)
-Olivia Freeman(D)
-David Esrati(D)
-Thomas McMasters(D)
-Sharen Swartz Neuhardt(D)
-L. Mack Van Allen(D)

OH-11:
-Marcia Fudge (D)

OH-12:
-Pat Tiberi (R)
-William Yarbrough(R)
-James Reese(D)

OH-13:
-Tim Ryan (D)
-Lisa Regula(D)
-Marisha Agana(R)

OH-14:
-Steve LaTourette (R)

OH-15:
-Steve Stivers (R)
-Mark Brown(D)
-Pat Lang(D)

OH-16:
-Jim Renacci (R)
-Betty Sutton (D)
-John  Boccieri(D)
-Dawn Howard(D)

[TJ in Oregon]

Of these, the ones that could be interesting are:

OH-2: Perennially embattled GOP Representative Jean Schmidt faces a serious primary challenge from Brad Wenstrup who unsuccessfully challenged Cincinnati Mayor Mark Milloy in 2009, losing 54-46. Wenstrup is a podiatrist who spent a year serving in Iraq as a doctor. Schmidt has a fundraising advantage, but this one could still be interesting to watch. Whoever wins the primary will likely win the general election barring something unexpected happening.

OH-6: This is a rematch from 2010 when Republican Bill Johnson narrowly upset Charlie Wilson for a seat that started the 2000s as a Democratic pack seat. This time, Johnson should have the edge since the current district is 4-5 points more Republican, but Wilson remains fairly popular and may have a chance here no matter what the presidential numbers might say.

OH-7: This is again another rematch from 2010, but this seat is much less ancestrally Democratic than OH-6 and is more suburban than anything else in its newly redrawn form.

OH-9: The battle here is between incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich, whose districts in Toledo and Cleveland were merged into a Lake Erie district. Kucinich has the fundraising advantage, but Kaptur has picked up the key endorsement of Chase Ritenauer. Meanwhile, Kucinich has Alan Grayson campaigning for him in case there is any doubt about who can be the most inflammatory.

OH-16: The main story here is often considered to be the general election fight between Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci, but I've also read that former Democratic Congressman John Boccieri is running here, so Sutton may have a primary challenger. The moderate Boccieri would be a far better general election candidate, but Stark County is probably carved into too many pieces for Boccieri to win a primary in OH-7, OH-13, or here against Sutton. I doubt Sutton can win against Renacci, but I think Boccieri could.

[TJ in Oregon]

Neither Space nor Boccieri are running.

Do you have a source on that? I was having trouble finding definitive answers on those two (I am aware that Nina Turner and Rob Frost dropped out even though they are listed on the fundraising site and have money).

[TJ in Oregon]

Austria isn't running against Turner? The GOP did that map flaw (not appending Clinton County to OH-10, in lieu of stretching into Madison County), and excising some Dem precincts from Greene County so that all of Clinton could be included, all for nothing?

Austria announced he is not seeking another term.

Essentially yes, though Austria did attack John Boehner a bit over the new map before deciding not to run, so it may have been worth drawing it this way so as to make it appear that the GOP at least cared about him a little.

[TJ in Oregon]

Seriously, where is Joe the Plumber on your list?  He was a candidate at one point, Lawrence O'Donnell had him on.  Did he give up already?

Joe the Plummer's real name is Samuel Wurzelbacher. He's still a candidate.

[TJ in Oregon]

In typical fashion, Dennis Kucinich is off fundraising with his attention turned somewhere other than Ohio. He held a celebrity fundraiser for his campaign and a Haiti fundraiser with Sean Penn, Kim Kardashian, Leonardo DiCaprio, and others.

Meanwhile:
"Kaptur campaign manager Steve Fought said his boss spent the weekend in Cleveland."

Why does this not surprise me at all?

[TJ in Oregon]

Barney Frank endorsed Kucinich in the 9th.

Interestingly, Kaptur's campaign is saying Frank's endorsement of Kucinich came because Kaptur opposed Dodd-Frank and that the bill "pampered Wall Street insead of holding them accountable for the damange inflicted on this country."

I also have an odd suspicion that this endorsement might end up hurting Kucinich more than it helps.

[TJ in Oregon]

The Cleveland Plain Dealer endorses Kaptur over Kucinich. The walls may be closing in on Dennis here. I don't think he's going to survive this one.

[TJ in Oregon]

Another nudge to Dennis. Voinovich suggested that Kaptur would be a better fit for the district. Though, I'm not sure how much weight he'll have in a Democratic primary.

Is there any bad blood left from when Voinovich defeated Dennis for Cleveland mayor in 1979?

There could be, but I personally think Voinovich finds Kaptur easier to get along with and better positioned to represent the Cleveland area in Congress than Kucinich is. Voinovich has always seemed to value the ability to get along with others easily, right back to his days in City Hall. Kucinich has not.

[TJ in Oregon]

A Texas-based SuperPAC is targeting Jean Schmidt in the Republican primary. They claim their goal is to encourage primary accountability by funding primary challengers to "long-term congressional incumbents" that "do not have strong support from the voters of her district".

I have to laugh some at this explanation of "long-term incumbents" with "weak support" seing as they are also doing calls on behalf of Dennis Kucinich, who is pretty much the definition of a long-term incumbent who lacks strong support. But then again these guys are in Texas not Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

The Cleveland Plain Dealer endorses Kaptur over Kucinich. The walls may be closing in on Dennis here. I don't think he's going to survive this one.

I'm skeptical.  How much are newspaper/news site endorsements worth these days?

In general I don't think they're worth very much but if there's one endorsement you would want in this town it would be the Plain Dealer's, especially in a primary. The other notable issue here is that this district is split between the Toledo and Cleveland metro areas, such that most people assume Kaptur will sweep Toledo, Kucinich will sweep Cleveland, and the areas in between will determine the outcome of the election. Cleveland's paper endorsing the woman from Toledo means a lot. Kucinich did manage to get the endorsement of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party, while Kaptur unsurprisingly has the Lucas County endorsement. Though at the Cuyahoga County meeting, a large number of people stormed out in protest and most of the delegates from Lakewood dissented. Kucinich will beat Kaptur in the Cuyahoga part of the district but the issue is by how much. If it's even remotely close, Kaptur will win comfortably. I doubt Kucinich will even win Lakewood, so he'll need to really run up a huge margin in Cleveland/Parma/Brooklyn.

From these types of endorsements, it always seems like Kucinich is a heavy favorite—among everyone who doesn't live in Ohio.

[TJ in Oregon]

Updated:

OH-1:
-Steve Chabot (R)
-Jeff Sinnard (D)
-Malcom Kantzler (D)

OH-2:
-Jean Schmidt(R)
-Brad Wenstrup (R)
-Frederick Kundrata (R)
-Tony Bruch (R)
-Joe Green (R)
-David Krikorian (D)
-William Smith (D)

OH-3:
-Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
-Ted Celeste( D)
-Priscilla Tyson(D)
-Joyce Beatty (D)
-Chris Long (R)
-John Adams (R)

OH-4:
-Jim Jordan(R)
-Jim Sloan (D)

OH-5:
-Bob Latta (R)
-Robert Wallis (R)
-Angela Kay Zimmerman(D)

OH-6:
-Bill Johnson (R)
-Victor Smith (R)
-Charlie Wilson (D)
-Cas Adulewicz (D)

OH-7:
-Bob Gibbs (R)
-Hombre Liggett (R)
-Joyce Abrams-Healy (D)

OH-8:
-John Boehner (R)
-John Lewis(R)

OH-9:
-Marcy Kaptur (D)
-Dennis Kucinich (D)
-Graham Veysey(D)
-Samuel Wurzelbacher(R)
-Steven Kraus(R)

OH-10:
-Mike Turner (R)
-John D. Anderson (R)
-Ed Breen (R)
-Olivia Freeman(D)
-David Esrati(D)
-Thomas McMasters(D)
-Sharen Swartz Neuhardt(D)
-L. Mack Van Allen(D)
-Ryan Steele (D)

OH-11:
-Marcia Fudge (D)
-Gerald Carver Henley (D)
-Isaac Powell (D)

OH-12:
-Pat Tiberi (R)
-William Yarbrough(R)
-James Reese(D)
-Doug Litt(D)

OH-13:
-Tim Ryan (D)
-Marisha Agana(R)

OH-14:
-Steve LaTourette (R)
-Dale Virgil Blanchard (D)

OH-15:
-Steve Stivers (R)
-Charles Chope (R)
-Scott Wharton (D)
-Pat Lang (D)

OH-16:
-Jim Renacci (R)
-Betty Sutton (D)

[TJ in Oregon]

I doubt it matters much, but Kaptur was endorsed by Bob Dole (and a few actors).

[TJ in Oregon]

I think Kucinich will lose and this article shows why. Kaptur is seen as more powerful in DC and Kucinich is seen as having lost any connection to Cleveland. He even refused to rule out running in Washington State if he loses the primary. That ought to be a softball question right there. Look at the comments on the bottom for an idea of the local sentiment. I don't see how Kucinich can win this. I just don't.

Also, this is NE Ohio. No one cares about illegal immigration.

[TJ in Oregon]

I drove home to Sandusky to vote this morning and kept my eyes peeled for election lawn signs for the congressional race. I saw a few Kaptur signs in Erie County and one for Graham Veysey but none for Kucinich. It probably doesn't mean much because I highly doubt Kucinich was ever expecting to win Erie County, but I thought he would have at least managed to put signs up in front of the polling places like Kaptur's campaign did.

[TJ in Oregon]

Veysey makes a very convincing case.  Why was Kaptur so slow to respond on how she voted on gay marriage?

She was probably trying to come up with a way to avoid giving an answer that would be unpopular in the Democratic primary. By her answer it seems rather likely she did in fact vote for the ban in '04.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kucinich up 12225-11909 right now. Almost all of Kucinich's votes are from Cuyahoga County and almost all of Kaptur's are from everywhere else. If this keeps up, Kucinich will lose since less than half the district is in Cuyahoga County.

[TJ in Oregon]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OH_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I'm also looking at county BOE sites. Only Cuyahoga and Erie are particularly useful though.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kaptur now leading 16,325 to 14,196 with 16% in.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kaptur expands her lead 17,901-14,258 with 20% in.

[TJ in Oregon]

Though, if Jean runs as an Indy, I'll actually donate $$$$$ to her even though I live  in NC lol.

Why? I might agree with her politically, but Jean Schmidt was not a very good representative. If she was, she would still be in office. These sorts of things happen when there are better people for a job than the person who currently holds it. Such a pruning, as long as it isn't an ideological fight, is almost always a good thing.

[TJ in Oregon]

Inspired by the Masters, the Ohio Democratic Party is attacking Rep. Jim Renacci for belonging to an all male golf club. The GOP War on Women is on now!

[TJ in Oregon]

Kucinich has a survey asking whether or not he should run in Washington.

Wrong thread

[TJ in Oregon]

Here is the primary map for OH-9 between Kaptur and Kucinich (in two pieces becuase the district is weird shaped):
Kaptur in blue
Kucinich in red




It is almost entirely a clash of media markets where Kaptur almost literally won all of here territory and Kucinich only held about 75%. There are a grand total of five precincts in the Lucas County portion where Kaptur had less than 90% of the two-way vote. There were more precincts where Kucinich literally had zero votes.