If this gets through, it's huge. I could both Harrisburg and Erie-based districts that are tossups at worst for Democrats. There may even be a competitive Lancaster-based district.
Democrats are losing ground in Erie. It voted for Trump, Toomey and just last week for Mundy. All the counties around it are solidly Republican (60%+ solid) and it doesn't have enough population on its own. If PA loses a district in 2020, there position will get even worse because it would need even more heavily Republican counties meet population requirement.
Many aspects of the GOP gerrymander are now unnecessary and irrelevant. And frankly Republicans would probably be better off tossing a district in SE PA at this juncture, because the house of cards in that region is looking shaky, just like the PA-13 game they played in 2002 and absent a redraw it could backfire in 2018 just as that did in 2006.
I really don't know what Republicans were thinking by trying to keep PA-13 competitive in 2002. Al Gore won there by 12 points even after the redraw. Had they conceded that seat to Hoeffel, they would have been able to make PA-06 and PA-07 Bush districts and may have even been able to save Weldon in 2006.
