PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[12th Doctor]

Gov. Swann.  I like that.

[12th Doctor]

Gov. Swann.  I like that.

What were Ridge's accomplishments?

Ummmm... there are many, but I fail to see how that relates to this.

As for your other comment, Santorum doesn't need to be saved.  He saved Specter.

[12th Doctor]

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Looks good for Rendell. I could see his challenger, possibly Swann, getting about 44%. Give almost all the undecideds to Rendell. 55-44 looks like a good outcome.

Why is it that during the Presidential Race we gave all the undecideds to Kerry, the challenger, but in the governor's race we give all the undecideds to Rendell.

Explain please.

[12th Doctor]

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Looks good for Rendell. I could see his challenger, possibly Swann, getting about 44%. Give almost all the undecideds to Rendell. 55-44 looks like a good outcome.

Why is it that during the Presidential Race we gave all the undecideds to Kerry, the challenger, but in the governor's race we give all the undecideds to Rendell.

Explain please.

He's a moderate Democrat.

Casey is not moderate.

He is conservative on social issues.  Almost as much as Santorum.  There views are virtually indistiguishable from one anothers.

He is liberal on economics.  More liberal than Kerry, by far.  These stances do not a moderate make.

He is just a guy who does not walk party line.

[12th Doctor]

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH!

WOOHOO!

I'm about to piss my pants I'm so excited.

The Dems now have a choice: Casey or Rendell.

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

[12th Doctor]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

[12th Doctor]

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

I didnt see a list of Swann's political accomplishments.  Where can I find them?

He ran the Bush 2004 campaign in Western PA and generated the best numbers that a Republican candidate has had in that area since the turn of the 20th century.

[12th Doctor]

He ran the Bush 2004 campaign in Western PA and generated the best numbers that a Republican candidate has had in that area since the turn of the 20th century.

Ok... From that I have gathered that he is a great campaign manager.  What about political accomplishments?  In other words, what has he done for PA lately?

FOUR SUPER BOWLS BABY!!!


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!



I get your point.  Just because he doesn't have elective expirience doesn't mean he will do badly, and, quite frankly, I don't like the "elective expirience" we have in there now.

[12th Doctor]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

Because she has made so many embarassing gaffes.

[12th Doctor]

Northeast (expected) and Northeast Central caucuses endorse Scranton - http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/politics/13737241.htm

If this hadn't happened then that would have been a campaign ending blow for Scranton.  As it is, he is basically on the ropes anyway.

WOW... now that I have read the article, 17-14!!!  That is pretty bad news for Scranton anyway.

[12th Doctor]

I'm new here...can someone explain why an ex-jock and ex-game show host is the GOP favorite for Gov? Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win? Lynn Swann for Governor? That's worse that Arnold in CA.

Two words: Arnold won.

When was he a game show host?  Anyway, more to it than that.  First, he is black.  Secondly, he played for the Steelers, which, for those of you not from around Western, PA, that is basically a religion.  Thirdly, he is charismatic.  Fourthly, he co-ran the 2004 Bush campaign here in PA, and thus we assumed that he had some sorta knowledge/interest in the issues that was greater than that of the average person.  Fifthly, Because he has a certain command in his personality, the perception was that he was a good leader.

Well:

1) Blacks don't seem to care that he is black, since he has spent zero time targeting them.  I see no evidence that a majority of people in the black community even know that Lynn Swann is running.

2) The fact that he played for the Steelers is probably the only reason he is still in this race at all.

3) He is charismatic, but he hasn't done a damn thing to acctually use it to his advantage.  He has made very few large campaign appearances or TV interviews.

4) He knows LESS about the issues and seems LESS interested in discussing them than the perhaps even the average voter.

5) His campaign is being run by idiots and I see zero evidence that he is significantly personally involved with it, let alone acctually leading the thing.

In conclusion, I regret my vote.  All the things that I had feared before the primary turned out to be absolutely true.  Lynn Swann is, in fact, a total dud.  Rendell would have to make a significant mistake for Swann to win, and I don't think that we would truely be much better off with Swann in the Governor's Mansion, since he seems to be an empty suit.  The best we can hope to do is force the Democrats to spend money on the race that they wouldn't spend otherwise, and I doubt that is going to happen.

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

Instead of the corrupt asshole governor of Pennsylvania?

Yeah, well the other factor in that race being that I doubt we could have picked a worse candidate than Fisher.  Its not that I regret voting for him, its that I regret the fact that I had no other real choice.

Oddly enough, Swann might acctually prove to be an even worse candidate.  I didn't think that was possible.

The GOP has no real leadership in this state.  We have been living on a prayer for way too long.  When Ridge and Santorum first broke out of the pack, they were dynamic, larger than life figures.  Now Ridge is gone and Santorum is just a petty little ankle bitting cock knocker.  And there is really no one left in the state who can bring any life back into this thing.  GOP rule in this state was basically a personality cult.  We had good people.  Now the well has been poisoned, and beyond redemption, I fear.

[12th Doctor]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

[12th Doctor]

To answer an earlier post, Swann hosted a version of "To Tell The Truth" around 1990-91.  Alex Trebek later took over when Swann proved totally awful.  This, combined with carrying a pigskin, qualifies him to be the governor of a major eastern industrial state?

Two things you don't understand about PA:

1) We are not much of an industrial state anymore.  Most of the factory jobs left 20 years ago.  Finance, high tech and small-medium sized industrial plants make up most of the non-service/non-tourism jobs now.  There are a few large industrial plants left, like the GE plant here in Erie, for instance, but those are few and most of them scaled back a while ago.

The image that most people have of Pittsburgh, with tall smoke stacks billowing out smoke while molten steel is processed in mighty blast furnaces no longer remotely resembles the truth, and hasn't for going on 30 years.  Pittsburgh has one steel mill left in the entire city and most of the people there either work for Hienz, PNC Bank, petro-chemicals, health care, laboratory research and development, computer tech or something resembling one of the above.  The city still maintains a fairly working class mentality, but even this is starting to role back.

This is the case for most cities and towns in PA.  Those that have any major, non-service employers left at all likely are not employed in heavy industry and sitting here, I can think of no real acceptions, esspecially in the old industrial outskirts of Pittsburgh, in the West-Central part of the state, like Altoona, Johnstown and even into the east, like Harrisburg and Scranton.  Those small cities, and the towns that they support are basically dying off, with a few small companies moving in to stop the bleeding.

I think Pittsburgh is headed toward a revival, and Erie stays alive due to good geographic location.  Other than that, I don't see a lot of hope for the next few decades.

2)  Once again, Steelers=Religion in the Western part of the state.

[12th Doctor]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

I just don't get the idea of personality cult. We agree on everything save the term to describe it. When I hear of personality cult...I think of Kim Jong Il, or Hitler. But thats me.

I'm thinking to a much less extreme extent.  As I just described it is what I mean.  Basically, a devotion to certain figures, like Ridge (who is basically the only one who isn't tainted now, of the orginal handful of guys), more than a devotion to the Republican Party.

[12th Doctor]

what the PAGOP needs is some sort of farm system of talent. In the meantime...it could have used a couple of good Pennsylvania Republican names (Schweiker, Scranton, Thornburgh(sp?), Heinz [well forget that one]) to hold the fort.

Though, I don't see some sort of reloading program occuring until the party is kicked out on its ass...

Well, from all indications, the ass kicking is only a few months off.