Follow the money. Romney and the RNC have done no advertising in Pennsylvania and Republican Super Pacs very little. If this is really a 3 point race they would be spending heavily.
National Journal advertising figures are wrong. RNC has been advertising HEAVILY in PA for the last month. I have seen 3 RNC anti-Obama ads over the 3-4 hours I have watched the Olympics. Also, Crossroads went absolutely nuts here in June. Americans for Prosperity and the anti heath care group went on a decent amount a few weeks ago. And Restore our Future is starting here Monday with ads. So, if you want to go by the money, PA is close.