Voting rights bills and lawsuits megathread (Updated: April 27th 2020)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

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Oh wow, I wasn't expecting that either. I knew they had taken up AVR a couple years ago but for one reason or another they dropped it after Republicans kept raising privacy concerns. Also, Maryland does have same-day registration already, but only for early voting (I think it was due to go into effect in 2018). Glad to see they are going full speed ahead with this stuff.

Very good news!

[junior chįmp]

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[junior chįmp]

Very intredasting map of all the places Dems could pass AVR via ballot initiative:



It's a shame the Dems are so terrible at strategy that they aren't pouring money into this

[Virginiá]

Very intredasting map of all the places Dems could pass AVR via ballot initiative:



It's a shame the Dems are so terrible at strategy that they aren't pouring money into this

Arizona and Michigan are the two states that really stand out at me. It's really something else that after somany years of intense Republican efforts to game election rules to their advantage, that Democrats haven't fought back in ways they know could make an impact. AZ and MI are two places where AVR might be of help.

However, some caveats about some of the other states:

1. Nevada - AVR actually is going to be on the ballot in 2018. It was already approved. Sandoval had a chance to sign it into law before it went to the voters but of course he vetoed it.

2. Ohio - There was an effort to get it on the ballot this year but for some reason it fizzled out (afaik)

3. MT/ME (+WA) - These states already have same-day voter registration, and WA doesn't have SDR but it has mail voting which substantially boosts turnout as it is. AVR is not all that necessary in these states, but fwiw, WA might implement some form of AVR due to Democrats taking back the legislature.

4. North Dakota doesn't have voter registration at all

5. Massachusetts is getting a lot of pressure to implement it, so they might. However, recently the state's voter registration deadline was struck down by a state court and iirc, that ruling was upheld on appeal, so in 2018 it should have de-facto same-day registration. If so, AVR isn't particularly useful here. As an intensely pro-voter access proponent, I'd root for it, but it won't make much difference in the end.

6. ID/WY/UT/SD/MO/OK/AR/MS/NE Don't really even need it. Sure, the left could try to get it on an initiative, but what rewards would they get for their efforts? These states are not competitive, except possibly Missouri (mostly downballot). I will concede that NE-02 is competitive, but who knows what it looks like in 2022 and beyond.

7. Florida - This is a big one for me. All this opportunity in Florida and Democrats have done nothing, meanwhile Republicans raised the initiative vote requirement to 60% over a decade ago and have even eyed trying to raise it further due to their dislike of voters actually getting policy they want. Only now are Democrats trying to eliminate the felony disenfranchisement rules that block almost 1/4 of African American adults from voting! HOWEVER, because of the 60% vote requirement and the expensive nature of fielding a viable initiative, there is a decent amount of risk here. If Republicans mounted a large campaign against it and pro-AVR groups had no resources to fight back, it might not be hard for the FLGOP to poison the electorate with incorrect and misleading information about AVR.


At this point, I'd rather Democrats push redistricting reform in Missouri, Ohio and also to get redistricting commission initiatives in Florida, since Rick Scott is attempting to stack the state Supreme Court by illegally replacing 3 retiring justices minutes after his term ends. Since Scott has been aggressive in appointing partisan judges, I think we all know how the state court will rule on future challenges to GOP maps.

[junior chįmp]

6. ID/WY/UT/SD/MO/OK/AR/MS/NE Don't really even need it. Sure, the left could try to get it on an initiative, but what rewards would they get for their efforts? These states are not competitive, except possibly Missouri (mostly downballot). I will concede that NE-02 is competitive, but who knows what it looks like in 2022 and beyond.

I think MS passing a felony disenfranchisement and AVR bill would substantially boost black turnout to the point it could become a semi-swing state. OK used to be a blue state downballot going back a couple of years so AVR could be useful for state legislature races.

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Theoretically, Florida could do another ballot initiative to drop the 60% requirement back down to 50%

On a side note....the FL felony disenfranchisement ballot initiative still needs 159,608 signatures with 38 days to go. Only a week ago it needed 225k so that bill is well on it's way to making it on the ballot. I remember reading somewhere that if only 30% of all the felons in Florida turnout regularly after getting their voting rights back that that Florida will cease to be a swing state if they vote the way felons vote on the national level. (7 in 10 felons are registered Democrats)

[muon2]

3. MT/ME (+WA) - These states already have same-day voter registration, and WA doesn't have SDR but it has mail voting which substantially boosts turnout as it is. AVR is not all that necessary in these states, but fwiw, WA might implement some form of AVR due to Democrats taking back the legislature.

In IL the existence of SDR made it much easier to craft a version of AVR that Pubs could support. As noted, AVR doesn't boost voter participation much beyond what one gets from SDR. It does shift where the cost and effort takes place. With SDR the cost and effort is on election day and the weeks immediately after since SDR voters still have to be verified by the local election authorities. In the 2016 primaries many rural counties were swamped with Pub voters and rushed to print more ballots at extra cost and then staff up to process the votes. Cutting those local costs with AVR resonated with budget-conscious Pubs.

[junior chįmp]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

I sure hope this is the case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

You mean can be unconstitutional, no?

[Antonio the Sixth]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

I sure hope this is the case.

Fingers crossed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

My concern is that Roberts might vote with the majority so he can assign himself the opinion and can write as narrow/case-specific a ruling as possible.

[KingSweden]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

My concern is that Roberts might vote with the majority so he can assign himself the opinion and can write as narrow/case-specific a ruling as possible.

That would be the most Roberts thing of all time

[Badger]

Very intredasting map of all the places Dems could pass AVR via ballot initiative:



It's a shame the Dems are so terrible at strategy that they aren't pouring money into this

Arizona and Michigan are the two states that really stand out at me. It's really something else that after somany years of intense Republican efforts to game election rules to their advantage, that Democrats haven't fought back in ways they know could make an impact. AZ and MI are two places where AVR might be of help.

However, some caveats about some of the other states:

1. Nevada - AVR actually is going to be on the ballot in 2018. It was already approved. Sandoval had a chance to sign it into law before it went to the voters but of course he vetoed it.

2. Ohio - There was an effort to get it on the ballot this year but for some reason it fizzled out (afaik)

3. MT/ME (+WA) - These states already have same-day voter registration, and WA doesn't have SDR but it has mail voting which substantially boosts turnout as it is. AVR is not all that necessary in these states, but fwiw, WA might implement some form of AVR due to Democrats taking back the legislature.

4. North Dakota doesn't have voter registration at all

5. Massachusetts is getting a lot of pressure to implement it, so they might. However, recently the state's voter registration deadline was struck down by a state court and iirc, that ruling was upheld on appeal, so in 2018 it should have de-facto same-day registration. If so, AVR isn't particularly useful here. As an intensely pro-voter access proponent, I'd root for it, but it won't make much difference in the end.

6. ID/WY/UT/SD/MO/OK/AR/MS/NE Don't really even need it. Sure, the left could try to get it on an initiative, but what rewards would they get for their efforts? These states are not competitive, except possibly Missouri (mostly downballot). I will concede that NE-02 is competitive, but who knows what it looks like in 2022 and beyond.

7. Florida - This is a big one for me. All this opportunity in Florida and Democrats have done nothing, meanwhile Republicans raised the initiative vote requirement to 60% over a decade ago and have even eyed trying to raise it further due to their dislike of voters actually getting policy they want. Only now are Democrats trying to eliminate the felony disenfranchisement rules that block almost 1/4 of African American adults from voting! HOWEVER, because of the 60% vote requirement and the expensive nature of fielding a viable initiative, there is a decent amount of risk here. If Republicans mounted a large campaign against it and pro-AVR groups had no resources to fight back, it might not be hard for the FLGOP to poison the electorate with incorrect and misleading information about AVR.


At this point, I'd rather Democrats push redistricting reform in Missouri, Ohio and also to get redistricting commission initiatives in Florida, since Rick Scott is attempting to stack the state Supreme Court by illegally replacing 3 retiring justices minutes after his term ends. Since Scott has been aggressive in appointing partisan judges, I think we all know how the state court will rule on future challenges to GOP maps.

I can see realistic scenarios where AVR could have a tangible impact in some Utah Congressional seats, South Dakota races in general, and Big Time overall in Mississippi.

[krazen1211]

Power To The People!

Link

Commonwealth Court Says Pa’s Congressional Lines Do Not Violate State Constitution

[KingSweden]

I’m still surprised GA has AVR

[junior chįmp]

I’m still surprised GA has AVR

I'm more surprised that Mississippi allows ballot initiatives

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Very intredasting map of all the places Dems could pass AVR via ballot initiative:



It's a shame the Dems are so terrible at strategy that they aren't pouring money into this

Arizona and Michigan are the two states that really stand out at me. It's really something else that after somany years of intense Republican efforts to game election rules to their advantage, that Democrats haven't fought back in ways they know could make an impact. AZ and MI are two places where AVR might be of help.

However, some caveats about some of the other states:

1. Nevada - AVR actually is going to be on the ballot in 2018. It was already approved. Sandoval had a chance to sign it into law before it went to the voters but of course he vetoed it.

2. Ohio - There was an effort to get it on the ballot this year but for some reason it fizzled out (afaik)

3. MT/ME (+WA) - These states already have same-day voter registration, and WA doesn't have SDR but it has mail voting which substantially boosts turnout as it is. AVR is not all that necessary in these states, but fwiw, WA might implement some form of AVR due to Democrats taking back the legislature.

4. North Dakota doesn't have voter registration at all

5. Massachusetts is getting a lot of pressure to implement it, so they might. However, recently the state's voter registration deadline was struck down by a state court and iirc, that ruling was upheld on appeal, so in 2018 it should have de-facto same-day registration. If so, AVR isn't particularly useful here. As an intensely pro-voter access proponent, I'd root for it, but it won't make much difference in the end.

6. ID/WY/UT/SD/MO/OK/AR/MS/NE Don't really even need it. Sure, the left could try to get it on an initiative, but what rewards would they get for their efforts? These states are not competitive, except possibly Missouri (mostly downballot). I will concede that NE-02 is competitive, but who knows what it looks like in 2022 and beyond.

7. Florida - This is a big one for me. All this opportunity in Florida and Democrats have done nothing, meanwhile Republicans raised the initiative vote requirement to 60% over a decade ago and have even eyed trying to raise it further due to their dislike of voters actually getting policy they want. Only now are Democrats trying to eliminate the felony disenfranchisement rules that block almost 1/4 of African American adults from voting! HOWEVER, because of the 60% vote requirement and the expensive nature of fielding a viable initiative, there is a decent amount of risk here. If Republicans mounted a large campaign against it and pro-AVR groups had no resources to fight back, it might not be hard for the FLGOP to poison the electorate with incorrect and misleading information about AVR.


At this point, I'd rather Democrats push redistricting reform in Missouri, Ohio and also to get redistricting commission initiatives in Florida, since Rick Scott is attempting to stack the state Supreme Court by illegally replacing 3 retiring justices minutes after his term ends. Since Scott has been aggressive in appointing partisan judges, I think we all know how the state court will rule on future challenges to GOP maps.

I can see realistic scenarios where AVR could have a tangible impact in some Utah Congressional seats, South Dakota races in general, and Big Time overall in Mississippi.

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

[KingSweden]

I’m still surprised GA has AVR

I'm more surprised that Mississippi allows ballot initiatives

It’s not a big thing in the South, so yeah. Surprising.

[Virginiá]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

if someone who inspires black turnout is on the Democratic ticket, then it's possible.

[Virginiá]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

if someone who inspires black turnout is on the Democratic ticket, then it's possible.

Again, no. You are vastly overestimating the effects of these kinds of services, and maybe also forgetting that automatic registration would also register a ton of white voters who are overwhelmingly Republican in MS. Plus, depending on how comprehensive the AVR bill was, a lot of black voters without drivers licenses wouldn't get registered as well.

Election reform can only go so far. It can't magically erase a double-digit Republican advantage overnight. I'd say maybe at best it could add 0.5% - 1% to the Democratic vote share, if that. If Mississippi is destined to become competitive, it isn't going to happen because of AVR, and it likely won't happen for years yet.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

if someone who inspires black turnout is on the Democratic ticket, then it's possible.

Again, no. You are vastly overestimating the effects of these kinds of services, and maybe also forgetting that automatic registration would also register a ton of white voters who are overwhelmingly Republican in MS. Plus, depending on how comprehensive the AVR bill was, a lot of black voters without drivers licenses wouldn't get registered as well.

Election reform can only go so far. It can't magically erase a double-digit Republican advantage overnight. I'd say maybe at best it could add 0.5% - 1% to the Democratic vote share, if that. If Mississippi is destined to become competitive, it isn't going to happen because of AVR, and it likely won't happen for years yet.

Honestly, you're right. I'm daft sometimes.

[junior chįmp]

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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Freedom move!

[junior chįmp]

Some fantastic New voting rights legislation introduced in the VA HoD and Senate for the new term:

HJ5 (“The amendment prohibits electoral districts being drawn for the purpose of favoring or disfavoring any political party, incumbent legislator or member of Congress, or other individual or entity.”)

HJ21 (” Establishes the seven-member Virginia Redistricting Commission (the Commission) to redraw congressional and General Assembly district boundaries after each decennial census.”)

HB74 (“Allows any registered voter to vote early in any election in which he is qualified to vote without providing a reason or making prior application for an absentee ballot.”)

HB191 (“Adds to the list of acceptable forms of voter identification a valid student photo identification card issued by any institution of higher education located in any other state or territory of the United States”)

SB65 (“Presidential candidates; federal tax returns and state income tax returns required for ballot access.”)

SB136 (“Absentee voting; no-excuse in-person available 21 days prior to election.”)

HB57 (“Absentee voting; no excuse.”)

SJ9 (“Establishes that the sole qualifications to vote in the Commonwealth are United States citizenship, being at least 18 years of age, residency in the Commonwealth, and registration to vote in accordance with requirements set out in the Constitution of Virginia…The bill removes from current constitutional qualifications to vote not having been convicted of a felony and not having been adjudicated to be mentally incompetent.”)

HB99 (“Enters Virginia into an interstate compact known as the Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote”);