Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[DrScholl]

CNN wants to keep the horse race going, which explains this poll.

[DrScholl]

CNN polled over the weekend because they knew that it would probably produce a result that would feed into the horse race narrative. But the few Trump supporters that exist needs to something to be excited about and we have to let every dog have it's day.

[DrScholl]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

[DrScholl]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Because we know for a fact that the 2016 electorate will look exactly like the 2012 electorate, right?

This is exactly what the unskewers have done in the past - weigh the poll to the results they want instead of the results the poll gets.

Did you not learn anything from 2012? You were predicting a Romney win, because the electorate surely couldn't look like 2008 and would be whiter. I don't have to remind anyone how that election turned out, but the fact of the matter is the electorate never regresses in presidential elections.

[DrScholl]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Because we know for a fact that the 2016 electorate will look exactly like the 2012 electorate, right?

This is exactly what the unskewers have done in the past - weigh the poll to the results they want instead of the results the poll gets.

Did you not learn anything from 2012? You were predicting a Romney win, because the electorate surely couldn't look like 2008 and would be whiter. I don't have to remind anyone how that election turned out, but the fact of the matter is the electorate never regresses in presidential elections.

The electorate never regresses in Presidential elections?  What does that mean?  We've certainly had years when the electorate did shrink, and keep in mind that party self-ID is fluid.  You're absolutely doing the same kind of unskewing Romney supporters did in 2012.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/regress

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You're welcome. With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

[DrScholl]

The Voter News Service ceased to exist years before the 2012 election.