Maine - Maine People's Resource Center 9/15-9/17: Hillary + 0.3 (4-way)

[ProudModerate2]

But how can Maine help Trump?

Even if he won Romney + Florida + Ohio + Iowa + Maine At Large + ME02 + Nevada that would still be 268 electoral votes.

Ljube,
I think with all of Maine in trump's column, it would be a 269-269 tie.
Use this recent Sabato map as a guide to help with the math ....
(Don't forget to see/read the box found to the right of Florida.)

[Xing]

Why would Hillary not be investing here if it were this close? I'm skeptical.

Cause it doesn't matter. Too small.

Then why would she invest in NE-02?

Cause her campaign is quite inept.

No, it's because she is going after every electoral vote she can plausibly get, just like she went after delegates in the primary. If you have the resources, one would have to be pretty stupid not to do this. And ads for NE-02 bleed into parts of Iowa as well, so it's a double investment. Given the current dynamics of this race, it is smart, not inept.

Personally, I agree, which is why I have a hard time believing that Hillary's campaign would ignore ME-02, unless they felt confident they were going to win it.

[NOVA Green]

Although Maine is trending "Right" this electoral cycle, I find the topline numbers a bit favorable for Trump.

What does appear to be the case from this poll, and others, is that Trump is likely ahead in ME-02 at this time for that one EV.

That being said, I have warned for awhile from way back in the Democratic Primaries, that Clinton is a bad fit for places like Southern Oregon, that share certain similarities with places like ME-02.

Bernie dominated the Oregon Primaries throughout the entire state... however where Clinton significantly under-performed her '08 numbers were in the small mill towns, union towns and rural areas in Southern Oregon that in many ways are more like Maine-02 than Portland, Oregon.

I do not believe that Trump will win Maine, but I not be surprised at all to see him win ME-02.

[bilaps]

At this point Trump is clearly a favourite to win CD2, Hilary still probably edges him out statewide.

I would love to see a relevant NH poll because this poll shows 10pt swing to Trump and NH polls at that time had Clinton up in high single digits as well. But no much data after that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For comparison, their final poll in 2012 (conducted Nov. 1-3) showed the following.

Statewide: Obama 53.3, Romney 42.2, Johnson 0.9, Stein 1.0, undecided 2.6  (Obama +11.1)
CD1: Obama 56.7, Romney 39.0, Johnson 0.4, Stein 1.5, undecided 2.3 (Obama +17.7)
CD2: Obama 49.7, Romney 45.7, Johnson 1.4, Stein 0.4, undecided 2.8 (Obama +4.0)

Source: http://www.mprc.me/research/mprc_1103can12.pdf

The actual results...

Statewide: Obama 56.3, Romney 41.0, Johnson 1.3, Stein 1.1 (Obama +15.3)
CD1: Obama 59.6, Romney 38.2, Johnson 1.2, Stein 1.0 (Obama +21.4)
CD2: Obama 52.9, Romney 44.4, Johnson 1.4, Stein 1.2 (Obama +8.5)

So they underestimated Obama's margins by about 4 points in each CD and statewide.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For comparison, their final poll in 2012 (conducted Nov. 1-3) showed the following.

Statewide: Obama 53.3, Romney 42.2, Johnson 0.9, Stein 1.0, undecided 2.6  (Obama +11.1)
CD1: Obama 56.7, Romney 39.0, Johnson 0.4, Stein 1.5, undecided 2.3 (Obama +17.7)
CD2: Obama 49.7, Romney 45.7, Johnson 1.4, Stein 0.4, undecided 2.8 (Obama +4.0)

Source: http://www.mprc.me/research/mprc_1103can12.pdf

The actual results...

Statewide: Obama 56.3, Romney 41.0, Johnson 1.3, Stein 1.1 (Obama +15.3)
CD1: Obama 59.6, Romney 38.2, Johnson 1.2, Stein 1.0 (Obama +21.4)
CD2: Obama 52.9, Romney 44.4, Johnson 1.4, Stein 1.2 (Obama +8.5)

So they underestimated Obama's margins by about 4 points in each CD and statewide.

The national polling consensus also underestimated Obama by about four points in 2012.

[Lachi]

< decimal points

[dax00]

I revise my prediction of Trump winning ME-2 from 75% (which received ridicule) to 80%.