$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this passes Democrats need to hike taxes on the rich as soon as they get in in 2021, and ideally hike top income tax rates above 50% to pre-Reagan levels. This can be done with an infrastructure reform bill, overhauling the tax code and destroying Trump's one accomplishment while actually delivering for working Americans and creating more jobs and rising incomes.

How many votes are needed to increase taxes...is it a simple majority?

It wouldn't raise the deficit, so probably.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait Corker and Flake are opposed? Link please

They aren't opposed (yet), but there was some interesting floor drama a little while ago. Read through: https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/with_replies

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate is now voting on a motion by Sen. Stabenow to send the bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Stabenow to send the bill back to committee has failed by a vote of 45-55. Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly defect.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McConnell speaks, says the Senate can debate as late as they want to tonight, but the amendment vote-o-rama will not start until 11:00 AM tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Nelson starts debate on attempt #6 to recommit, presiding republican clearly annoyed at the continuing charade.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Feinstein's right here. As I posted above, McConnell said no vote-o-rama until 11 AM on the Senate Floor. May or may not mean anything since there were some comments about not wanting to make McCain stay up all night.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate stands adjourned until 10 AM ET tomorrow.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

lmao if they think they'll have enough time to finish a vote-o-rama tomorrow starting so late

I don't think McConnell cares if these guys have to miss their Friday Night bar runs.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate back in session. Next votes in about an hour.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Daines is a Yes (and Johnson, but everyone already knew that):

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/01/sen-steve-daines-one-of-the-last-gop-holdouts-will-back-senate-tax-bill-after-pass-through-tweak.html

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 46 GOP Senators


Overall: 49 SUPPORT,  48 AGAINST, 3 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, this is interesting. At approximately 10:36 ET, the Senate was called into a brief recess. I thought this was just so McConnell could keep his "no votes until 11:00" pledge intact, but it's apparently something more since it's 11:18 ET and the Senate is still recessed. C-SPAN 2 is saying Republicans are "meeting over changes to tax bill", no further details. Something is going on here.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, Senate is back in session now, but not voting yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, here we go. Senate now voting on motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McConnell can get just one of Lankford/Corker/Collins, the bill should pass.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Lean Support: N/A

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 47 GOP Senators


Overall: 49 SUPPORT,  48 AGAINST, 3 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52. Senate now voting on a similar motion by Sen. Baldwin.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Baldwin to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Vote: 2 ET: Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate now voting on Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Cardin to send the bill back to committee has failed 44-56. If I heard the clerk right, the defections were Gillibrand, Booker, Warren, and Merkley. I will check the official roll call when it's published by the Senate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Cardin to send the bill back to committee has failed 44-56. If I heard the clerk right, the defections were Gillibrand, Booker, Warren, and Merkley. I will check the official roll call when it's published by the Senate.

Wait why?

Are they just assuming it'll pass and telling them to get it over with?

Hmmm, someone changed their vote at the last minute, fails 43-57. I'll see if I see anything.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is why people in AZ don't like Flake, hundreds of his constituents always leave messages for him on issues but he tends to ignore them and make votes without input of his voters

Yeah, I'm glad that Flake is retiring. Whether the replacement is Salmon, McSally, or Sinema, they can't be any worse than Flake. (I don't believe Ward would ever win a general election)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Official roll call for Cardin motion to recommit is published. Defections were Booker, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, and Warren. Unclear why they defected. : https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=1&vote=00292

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Official roll call for Cardin motion to recommit is published. Defections were Booker, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, and Warren. Unclear why they defected. : https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=1&vote=00292

Something about 2020 of course

"I voted with Republicans to continue the process of passing their tax bill" is not a 2020 democratic argument.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there any indication at all about when the actual vote will take place? Will it be sometime today?

There were seven hours left of debate time when the session began at 10 AM ET, but they spent roughly an hour in adjournment which I don't think counts against the debate time. So that would put the set of actual amendment votes and the final vote at a start time of roughly 6 PM ET, unless time is yielded back.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Several Democrats just had a discussion with the parliamentarian for several minutes. We're not aware of exactly what was discussed.