Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[BrazilianConservative]

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro supporters are the only other voters with any enthusiasm to vote, as he is the only outsider in a sea of establishment candidates regarded as crooks.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

[BrazilianConservative]

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.

Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.