Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016

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Exactly one year from now, there will be elections for the mayors and legislators (vereadores) of the 5570 Brazilian municipalities.
The biggest news of these elections are related to what happened two weeks ago. Very good news. The Supreme Court decided to ban corporate donations to campaign of politicians and parties. Only individuals are allowed to contribute for campaign now. No more than R$1000 (US$250) each individual. The parties have also public funds. Corporate donation ban will avoid abuse of economic power in the democracy. Here you can read more details
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/18/brazilian-supreme-court-bans-corporate-donations-political-candidates-parties

In the city of São Paulo, probably mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) will not be reelected. Not because of his administration. He has low chances because the popularity of the Workers Party (PT) is very low, due to the Petrobras scandal, to the economic crisis and the very low approval rate of Dilma Rousseff administration. Even though, Haddad is not involved in any scandal. Other candidates are Celso Russomano and José Luís Datena. Both were presenters of police TV shows. This kind of show is about crime and the presenter is usually pro "law and order" and supports the idea that "human rights are good for criminals". This kind of speech has acceptance among some Brazilians, because of the high crime rates. PSDB candidate probably will be João Dória, a star magnate, a kind of Brazilian Donald Trump. But it is still not sure if he will be candidate.

In the city of Rio de Janeiro, mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) cannot run for reelection because he is already in his second term. His candidate will be one of his secretaries. He will be the favorite. Paes will be in evidence next year because of the Olympics. The campaign will take place during the Olympics. Paes is known as the "Olympic mayor". Other candidate will be the evangelic leader Marcelo Crivella. Marcelo Freixo, the moderate leftist of the far left PSOL will run too. And REDE, Marina Silva's new party, will have a candidate too, who is a former PT congressman.

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http://g1.globo.com/sao-paulo/noticia/2016/02/politicos-pedem-cancelamento-da-pre-candidatura-de-doria-em-sp.html

PSDB primaries to choose the candidate who will run against incumbent Fernando Haddad (PT) for mayor of São Paulo: João Dória, who is a magnate and TV star, and not a professional politician, is chalenging the establishment of his party. Not an unknown story. There are two candidates endorsed by the establishment of the party.

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Doria and Mattarazzo will face the runoff.
Maybe, Trípoli was "too left-wing". João Doria spoke what the average PSDB primary voter wants to listen. Doria's results were also na evidence of the strengh of the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

The PSDB primaries had scenes near the polls that look like election of labor unions. We can not say that PSDB is elitist anymore.

I don't know how this guy has lost his pants.
http://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/brigas-e-invasao-afetam-previas-do-psdb-em-sp

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The PSDB primary is a lethal race because problably it will elect the future São Paulo mayor.

It is very hard for Fernando Haddad (PT) to be reelected. His party has low approval rate because of the stagflation (Dilma's administration) and the corruption scandals. Haddad's administration has low approval rate too (but maybe, this is a mirror of the evaluation of Lula, Dilma and PT). However, he still have some months to try to present good job, and he will try to be distant enough to PT during the campaign.
Celso Russomano is a paraguayan horse. He starts well because he is famous. But his rejection is very high.
Probably, former PT mayor and now PMDB candidate Marta Suplicy will have single digit. Voters who dislike Haddad's administation will not vote for Marta too.

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Matarazzo left not only the primaries, but also the party. João Doria Jr will be the PSDB candidate for the mayor of São Paulo. A personal victory of the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

However, Brazilian politics is focused on Brasília (and Curitiba), not yet on the municipal elections.

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Pedro Paulo (PMDB), candidate for mayor of Rio de Janeiro, has a bad image because the media showed that he has already spanked his ex-wife.
Now, he is looking for a female running mate, in order to improve his reputation to the female voters.

http://extra.globo.com/noticias/extra-extra/pedro-paulo-procura-uma-mulher-para-ser-sua-vice-na-disputa-pela-prefeitura-do-rio-19268901.html

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Poll Gerp July 8th


Mayor of Rio de Janeiro

Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 32%
Romário (PSB) 10%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 3%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 3%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 2%
Marta Rocha 2%
Molon 1%
Índio da Costa 1%

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I was reading an article that said there will be a record amount of East Asian, particularly Japanese candidates running. I find that interesting in light of Brazil's recent diversity crisis in government.

No candidate for mayor in the big cities I know has Asian ancestry. Maybe, candidates for vereador (city legislator)

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I live in Rio.

Sure, the municipal elections are almost forgotten. Besides, after the changes in the legislation that took place last year, there are no 90 day campaign anymore. Now, the campaign takes place during only 60 days.

There is no enthusiasm for the olympics too. The pessimism is very high: crime, polution...

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Datafolha, July 13th

Mayor of São Paulo

Celso Russomano (PRB) 25%
Marta (PMDB) 16%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 10%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 8%
João Dória (PSDB) 6%
Marco Feliciano (PSC) 4%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD) 3%

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Today was the deadline for the candidates to subscribe to the Electoral Justice. Campaign officially starts tomorrow, but people will pay atenction to the election only after the end of the Olympics.
The 5570 Brazilian municipalities will elect their mayors and legislators (vereadores). All these municipalities will have a sum of 500 thousand candidates for vereador.
The first round will take place on October 2nd. The runoff will take place on October 30th.

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Most recent polls IBOPE

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB): 33%
Marta (PMDB): 17%
Fernando Haddad* (PT): 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL): 9%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Major Olimpo (SD): 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB): 27%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL): 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC): 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB): 6%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB): 6%
Índio da Costa (PSD): 5%
Carlos Osório (PSDB): 4%
Alessandro Molon (REDE): 2%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB): 21%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS): 10%
Luís Tibé (PTdoB): 6%
Eros Biondini (PROS): 5%
Vanessa Portugal (PSTU): 5%
Délio Malheiros (PSD): 3%
Maria da Consolação (PSOL): 3%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT): 3%
Sargento Rodrigues (PDT): 3%

Porto Alegre
Luciana Genro (PSOL): 23%
Raul Pont (PT): 18%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB): 12%
Melo (PMDB): 10%
João Carlos Rodrigues (PMN): 3%
Júlio Flores (PSTU): 3%
Maurício Dziedricki (PTB): 3%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (PMN): 28%
Gustavo Fruet* (PDT): 19%
Requião Filho (PMDB): 16%
Ney Leprevost (PSD): 6%

Recife
João Paulo (PT): 27%
Geraldo Júlio* (PSB): 26%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB): 11%
Priscila Krause (DEM): 8%
Edilson Silva (PSOL): 4%

Campinas
Jonas Donizette* (PSB): 40%
Dr. Hélio (PDT): 12%
Artur Orsi (PSD): 8%
Márcio Pochmann (PT): 5%
Marcela Moreira (PSOL): 4%


* incumbente mayor running for reelection

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Until 2014, TV broadcasts had to invite for the debates all the candidates whose parties had seats in the House.
In 2015, the Congress approved an Act which established that candidates whose parties don't have at least 10 seats in the House (there are 513 seats in the House) should not participate in the TV debates. The authors of this Act were two right-wing representatives from Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Cunha and Rodrigo Maia. There was a clear target: PSOL, the far-left party who has 6 seats. Although PSOL is a small party in the national level, Marcelo Freixo is a popular politician in Rio de Janeiro. He is a strong candidate for mayor. That's why the right wing representatives want to exclude him from the debates.
Because of this act, both Marcelo Freixo (PSOL candidate in Rio de Janeiro) and Luiza Erundina (PSOL candidate in São Paulo) did not participate in the TV debates. During the debates, they made rallies in public square, with TV public viewing. They made comments about the debate, while the debate was taking place.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court considered that Cunha's and Maia's Act did not respect the Constitution, and so, it will be not valid anymore. Marcelo Freixo and Luiza Erundina can be invited for the next debates. It is an absurd to exclude them. They are polling in the level of double digits.

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Datafolha September 8th

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 26%
Marta (PMDB) 21%
João Dória (PSDB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 7%
Major Olimpio (SD) 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 29%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 30%
Alexandre Khalil (PHS) 19%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 4%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 36%
João Paulo (PT) 34%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 11%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 22%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 17%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 17%

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Analysis I wrote on August 19th (in Portuguese)
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/08/o-que-esperar-das-eleicoes-municipais-de-2016/

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Ibope (September 10th-13th)

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 30%
Marta (PMDB) 20%
João Doria (PSDB) 17%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 31%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 9%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 8%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 7%
Osorio (PSDB) 3%
Alessandro Molon (REDE) 1%

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Datafolha (september 21st)

São Paulo
João Dória (PSDB) 25%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 22%
Marta (PMDB) 20%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 10%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 31%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 10%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 9%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 7%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%
Alessandro Molon (REDE) 2%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 33%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 21%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Júlio (PSB) 38%
João Paulo (PT) 29%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 13%

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I will vote for
Marcelo Freixo (50) mayor of Rio de Janeiro
Renato Cinco (50555) vereador
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/declaracao-de-voto-marcelo-freixo-prefeito-50-renato-cinco-vereador-50555/

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I am just coming home from the Marcelo Freixo's rally at Lapa, downtown Rio de Janeiro. There were ~20K people there. The polls are predicting that Freixo will have ~400K votes. So, 5% of his voters were there.
Besides Marcelo Freixo and his running mate Luciana Boiteux, PSOL congressmen Chico Alencer and Jean Wyllys made speeches, as well as the PSOL and PCB candidates for vereador. Famous brazilian artists, like Chico Buarque, Wagner Moura and Gregório Duvivier were there too.

Some pictures
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/comicio-do-marcelo-freixo-na-lapa-26092016/

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Explaining the split of the left in Rio de Janeiro

There are three leftist candidates in Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Freixo (Party of Socialism and Liberty, PSOL), Jandira Feghali (Communist Party from Brazil, PCdoB), and Alessandro Molon (Network, REDE).

PSOL is a leftist split of the PT. Members of the PT who were not satisfied with Lula's administration created the PSOL. You can compare PSOL to Linke in Germany, Podemos in Spain and Syriza in Greece. PT is like SPD in Germany, PSOE in Spain and PASOK in Greece.
In most of the Brazilian states, PSOL is a far-left party. In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorsed the center-right state administration of Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) and municipal administration of Eduardo Paes (PMDB). It was a price to pay for the PMDB endorsement of Dilma Rousseff's administration. The Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) is a close ally of PT and endorsed the PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro too. Since PT and PCdoB decided to endorse PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro, PSOL became the most important left-wing party in the opposition of these administrations. In Rio de Janeiro, PSOL moved away from the far-left and became a center-left party, occuping the space left empty by the PT and the PCdoB. Marcelo Freixo is a moderate socialist.
But in 2016, PMDB stopped supporting Dilma's administration and voted for her impeachment. Michel Temer is a PMDB leader. Due to the PMDB vote pro-impeachment, PT and PCdoB stopped endorsing PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro. That's why Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) became a candidate, instead of endorsing Pedro Paulo (PMDB). PT is backing Jandira.
So, Marcelo Freixo and Jandira Feghali are spliting the leftist vote. But their electorate is not the same. Jandira's voters are poor people who backed Lula and Dilma's administration. Most of the Freixo's voters are middle class voters who like leftist ideas but dislike the corruption scandals of the PT leaders and the PT endorsement of the PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro. Many Freixo's voters are university students and professors. However, leaders of the landless movement (MST), homeless movement (MTST) and many leaders of favelas are endorsing Freixo too.
Rio de Janeiro is a strange state in which the "radical" left is bigger than the "moderate" left. Marcelo Freixo is polling better than Jandira Feghali. You can compare to some East German states, in which the Linke is bigger than the SPD.
The third leftist candidate in Rio de Janeiro is Alessandro Molon. He was a PT congressman. Now, he is in REDE, Marina Silva's party. However, he is on the left of Marina Silva. He was against Dilma's impeachment. Marina was pro Dilma's impeachment.


Marcelo Freixo is endorsed by the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB). It is different to the Communist Party from Brazil (PCdoB). It will be a long history to explain why there are two communist parties in Brazil.

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Last Datafolha poll, October 1st

considering only valid votes

São Paulo
João Doria (PSDB) 44%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 16%
Marta (PMDB) 14%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 32%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 16%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 12%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 11%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 8%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 7%
Alessandro Molon (Rede) 2%

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Ibope

São Paulo
João Doria (PSDB) 35%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 23%
Marta (PMDB) 19%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 15%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivela (PRB) 38%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 14%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 10%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 10%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 7%
Osório (PSDB) 6%
Alessandro Molon (Rede) 2%

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Datafolha October 1st

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 39%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 23%
Rodrigo Pacheco (PMDB) 8%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 7%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 45%
João Paulo (PT) 29%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 15%

Fortaleza
Rogério Claudio (PDT) 39%
Capitão Wagner (PR) 31%
Luizianne Lins (PT) 17%
Heitor Ferrer (PSB) 7%

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Ibope, October 1st

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 41%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 29%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%
Rodrigo Pacheco (PMDB) 6%

Recife
Geraldo Júlio (PSB) 45%
João Paulo (PT) 31%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 16%

Fortaleza
Roberto Claudio (PDT) 38%
Capitão Wagner (PR) 30%
Luizianne Lins (PT) 19%
Heitor Ferrer (PSB) 7%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (PMN) 35%
Gustavo Fruet (PDT) 22%
Ney Leprevost (PSD) 17%
Requião Filho (PMDB) 9%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 31%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 21%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 14%

Salvador
ACM Neto (DEM) 73%
Alice Portugal (PCdoB) 16%
Pastor Sargento Isidoro (PDT) 9%

Campinas
Jonas Donizette (PSB) 58%
Márcio Pochmann (PT) 15%
Artus Orsi (PSD) 13%
Dr. Hélio (PDT) 10%

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Details of the Datafolha poll

São Paulo

Male
João Dória 40%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Marta 10%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Female
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 13%
Fernando Haddad 13%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 5%


Age: 16-24
João Dória 28%
Celso Russomano 16%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Age: 25-34
João Dória 34%
Celso Russomano 12%
Fernando Haddad 18%
Marta 13%
Luiza Erundina 5%

Age: 35-44
João Dória 39%
Celso Russomano 14%
Fernando Haddad 12%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 6%

Age: 45-59
João Dória 38%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 12%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Age: 60-
João Dória 45%
Celso Russomano 14%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 11%
Luiza Erundina 3%


Household income: <2 minimum wages (1 minimum wage ~ US$275 p month)
João Dória 30%
Celso Russomano 20%
Fernando Haddad 9%
Marta 17%
Luiza Erundina 3%

Household income: between 2 and 5 minimum wages
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 5%

Household income: between 5 and 10 minimum wages
João Dória 45%
Celso Russomano 7%
Fernando Haddad 18%
Marta 7%
Luiza Erundina 6%

Household income: >10 minimum wages
João Dória 53%
Celso Russomano 3%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 4%
Luiza Erundina 6%


Elementary
João Dória 31%
Celso Russomano 22%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 18%
Luiza Erundina 3%

High School
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 16%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 3%

College
João Dória 44%
Celso Russomano 5%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 6%
Luiza Erundina 7%