Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Agreements between PSD and PS are set to begin:


Rui Rio and António Costa met today in the PM's office.

Rui Rio and António Costa met today, the first time since Rio was elected PSD leader, and both agreed to start a series of broad agreements between the two main parties. The meeting, that lasted 2/3 hours, set the priorities on the decentralization of the country and on the post 2020 community funds. Rui Rio has already said he will indicate members of the PSD to negotiate with the PS and the government.

At the same time, Rio is facing a controversy about one of his picks for his team in the PSD. Elina Fraga, former lawyers bar association chairwoman, is being investigated, by the DA office, for bad management during her term in office. The complain was issued by her successor, which defeated her in the elections in 2016.

[Mike88]

Fernando Negrão elected new PSD caucus chairmain... but only just:

Rui Rio's candidate to lead the PSD caucus won, but without the majority of PSD MPs. Fernando Negrão was able to win only 39.7% of the 88 MPs that voted: (1 MP didn't voted because he was against the election)

35 Fernando Negrão
32 Blank ballots
21 Invalid ballots


Fernando Negrão speaking to reporters in Parliament after his win.

Negrão said he would take the oath as caucus chairman, but that he is aware that the PSD caucus is divided because of the change of direction Rio is proposing. He also assumed, personally, the bellow than expected result he achieved. He also said he's sad that at least 2, or more, MPs that were part of his list didn't vote in his favour, adding that the caucus has an "ethical problem".

Many factors made this result occur: First, Rio forced Hugo Soares to exit from the caucus leadership, which wasn't well received by many MPs; second, only a minority of MPs supported Rio in the January leadership elections, as the vast majority supported Santana Lopes plus they don't like Rio at all, and many are still very loyal to Passos Coelho' former party strategy; and third, Rio's demand that the numbers of Vice presidents in the caucus had to be cut from 12 to 7 may have also angered some members, even some who supported Rio.

[TheSaint250]

Mike, if you don’t mind, with which party do you identify in Portugal?

[Mike88]

Mike, if you don’t mind, with which party do you identify in Portugal?

PSD. Although sometimes i'm not totally in tune with the party's positions.

[Mike88]

The PSD caucus election has created a climate of "civil war" in the party:

The weak election of Fernando Negrão as PSD caucus leader is creating backlash in many PSD MPs. Many MPs are upset with Negrão's tone after the results were announced, with some members even suggesting he was no legitimacy to lead the caucus. There are some fears that the members may force Negrão to leave the leadership, and Negrão has already said that if there is a "rebellion" in the caucus he would resign. The caucus will meet next week and the state of its mood will be essential. Negrão's performance against Costa, also next week, will also be very important.

The first days of Rui Rio leadership have been anything but quiet. Some pundits are already suggesting he may not last until Christmas.

[Josecardoso17]

looks like psd is in civil war in this moment ,damn!!!

[Josecardoso17]

what do you think will happen to Hugo Soares?

[Mike88]

looks like psd is in civil war in this moment ,damn!!!

It's their natural state, isn't it?   To be honest, look at the PSD history: in 1978, half of the party said "screw you" to Sá Carneiro and left the PSD; in 1985, half of the party hated Cavaco Silva's strategy of supporting Freitas do Amaral and ending Mário Soares Central Bloc; Between 1987-1995, go to RTP archives and hear what many said about Cavaco Silva in those PSD congresses; 1995, the congress where everybody just insulted each other; 2000, another congress full with insults, this time between Durão Barroso and Santana Lopes; 2004/2005, remember when many PSD people would rather support Sócrates than Santana Lopes... yeah; 2007/2008, the never ending fight between Passos/Ferreira Leite and Menezes; 2010, remember what they said about Passos Coelho: "to liberal"; "he's talking to Sócrates? Traitor!"; "he's too weak"; 2011-2015, half of the PSD said every bad thing you can imagine about Passos.

So, all of this is not very surprising. Rio wants to change the course the PSD had during Passos and this is creating a huge resistance. Looking at history, this will die down in the next few months, after all, many of these MPs may be angry at Rio now but do they really want to be booted out from the lists in 2019?

About Hugo Soares, don't know. I don't see him as a very bright politician, to be fair. He's Luis Montenegro right arm, so he will do everything Montenegro says him to do. Soares, if he was smart, he would refuse to endorse anyone in the PSD election, and, who knows, he would still be PSD caucus president.

[Mike88]

More updates on the PSD internal fight:

Two weeks after Rio's official investiture, things seem to be cooling a bit: Fernando Negrão met today with the PSD caucus and apologized for his remarks about a lack of ethic in some PSD MPs and wanted to hear what MPs were thinking. According to sources, the caucus meeting was like a trip to psychologist with MPs saying everything that made them angry. MPs said the party caucus was "insulted, mistreated and disrespected", but they liked Negrão's tone and apologies and are ready to bury the hatchet. Rio will meet next week with the caucus, and this meeting might be a bit more tense.

Rui Rio also had lunch today with Assunção Cristas, CDS leader. Baked fish was the dish served. In the end, Rio said both parties will make their own way, but will be united in their opposition to the PS/BE/CDU government solution. Rio also said post-elections coalitions weren't discussed but he's open to discuss it after the elections, as PSD and CDS are natural allies.

[Mike88]

Very few polls around here lately. Eurosondagem didn't made a poll in February, only Aximage did. The dire economic situation of many media companies may be stopping requests for polling numbers. We don't know the impact of Rui Rio's leadership, and the current internal infighting, in the PSD numbers or if the PS continues to surge.

As of right now, this is how things look:

Chart since 2015:


Average of polls, with poll weight, and seat projections:

41.2% PS, 114 seats
27.1% PSD, 72
  9.0% BE, 17
  7.4% CDU, 15
  6.6% CDS, 11
  1.7% PAN, 1
  7.0% Others Invalid

From here.

[windjammer]

It seems to me BE would be more willing to enter into a government than the other far-leftwing party, am I right?

[Mike88]

It seems to me BE would be more willing to enter into a government than the other far-leftwing party, am I right?

Yes, BE is much more willing to continue supporting the PS than CDU. CDU is actually tired of this government solution because it has hurt them electorally, plus they also feel trapped by supporting, or letting pass, stuff they consider "rightwing policies", so they have already said that they don't foresee a repeat of their support to the PS post 2019.

Now, does Costa want BE members in the government? It's a bit complicated but, IMO, Costa knows that having current BE members wouldn't be well received in the PS and especially in Brussels.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What would BE's main demands be?

[Mike88]

What would BE's main demands be?

Curiously, basically the same as CDU. BE demands would be the re-nationalization of some public companies like PT or the postal services, scraping the PSD/CDS labour laws, more funding to the NHS and Education, ending local accommodation rules and laws and higher taxes for businesses and wealthy people.

The main difference between BE and CDU is ultimately power. CDU, or PCP to be more precise, has an immense power in unions, local governments and in organization across the country, while BE doesn't have any of this. They don't have power in unions, they are inexistent in local government and their organization is weak across the country, so they need to be around the center of power to gain some relevance and structural power. On the other hand, CDU is starting to realize that with the power they have in the unions and others, it's better for them to be a protest party than a party in government.

[Josecardoso17]

i think their demands would be more in some social issues . CDU would give more importance to Nationalization of stuff,minimum wage,pensions,workers rights and stuff like that.BE also agrees with that but they would give more importance to things  like  legalizing cannabis, euthanasia,and making improvements in LGBT rights ,racial equality and housing rules.
BE works to improve its standing with the youth voters and the growing community of foreigners and minorities.Which they hope will be their future base.
This is my opinion,i don´t know if Mike88 agrees xD

[Mike88]

i think their demands would be more in some social issues . CDU would give more importance to Nationalization of stuff,minimum wage,pensions,workers rights and stuff like that.BE also agrees with that but they would give more importance to things  like  legalizing cannabis, euthanasia,and making improvements in LGBT rights ,racial equality and housing rules.
BE works to improve its standing with the youth voters and the growing community of foreigners and minorities.Which they hope will be their future base.
This is my opinion,i don´t know if Mike88 agrees xD

100% agree with you, Jose. The question was about their main demands and currently they have been more focused on economic/fiscal issues than social. In fact, IMO, social issues have become less a priority for BE ever since they became a supporter of the PS minority government. They still present legislation about social issues but they are less controversial than in the past. The fact the PSD, and also the PS, have become much more liberal in social issues, like LGBT rights, cannabis and euthanasia legalization, has made debates on social issues less divisive. Overall, my view is that BE wants to become the "CDS" of the PS. Whether they can become that is another question.

[windjammer]

Well, honestly, it seems to me that the PS government has a solid record. If I were Portuguese, I would definitely vote for them under Costa.

What are BE's views on Europe?

[Mike88]

Well, honestly, it seems to me that the PS government has a solid record. If I were Portuguese, I would definitely vote for them under Costa.

What are BE's views on Europe?

Costa has been quite a moderate PM. He hasn't change any major law done by the previous PSD/CDS government, he has been following strictly Brussels demands of a lowering the deficit and the economy has been booming. Now, Costa has said NO to many BE/CDU proposals like re-nationalizations, scraping the current labour code or more public investment. In fact, the welfare state, particularly the NHS and Education, have been Costa's negative side, as there is protests, and accusations, that the government has been neglecting it. The leftwing parties, and also PSD/CDS, accuse Mário Centeno of hijacking the ministers of Health and Education, who are the most unpopular ministers in Costa's government, by cutting funds to the Health service and the Education system.

The BE is not full anti-Europe, like PCP, but they are very critical of the political/economic line of the EU. They say Portugal should not follow the budget treaty, that Portugal should prepare itself for the eventual fall of the EU and of the Euro, etc. Centeno's new job as Eurogroup President is something the BE hasn't appreciate, for example.

[windjammer]

Well, honestly, it seems to me that the PS government has a solid record. If I were Portuguese, I would definitely vote for them under Costa.

What are BE's views on Europe?

Costa has been quite a moderate PM. He hasn't change any major law done by the previous PSD/CDS government, he has been following strictly Brussels demands of a lowering the deficit and the economy has been booming. Now, Costa has said NO to many BE/CDU proposals like re-nationalizations, scraping the current labour code or more public investment. In fact, the welfare state, particularly the NHS and Education, have been Costa's negative side, as there is protests, and accusations, that the government has been neglecting it. The leftwing parties, and also PSD/CDS, accuse Mário Centeno of hijacking the ministers of Health and Education, who are the most unpopular ministers in Costa's government, by cutting funds to the Health service and the Education system.

The BE is not full anti-Europe, like PCP, but they are very critical of the political/economic line of the EU. They say Portugal should not follow the budget treaty, that Portugal should prepare itself for the eventual fall of the EU and of the Euro, etc. Centeno's new job as Eurogroup President is something the BE hasn't appreciate, for example.

I read that Costa stopped austerity?

[Josecardoso17]

being a ps supporter i have to say that sadly that´s not entirely true .The budget for education and health its very tight and for other things also very small.But pensions are being raised and  minimum wage is up.So it´s true but not entirely true.

[Josecardoso17]

i forgot to quote the last post ,sorry xD

[Mike88]

being a ps supporter i have to say that sadly that´s not entirely true .The budget for education and health its very tight and for other things also very small.But pensions are being raised and  minimum wage is up.So it´s true but not entirely true.

Exactly. It's basically a mix bag, remove with one hand give it with the other. A classical move in Portuguese politics. About the minimum wage, if the PS and BE are able to gain a majority in the next Parliament, this could be a policy that can create huge tensions between PS and the leftwing parties.

[Mike88]

A follow up to the polling chart since 2015, here's the updated polling chart since 2001:



Also, on political events, CDS will hold their congress this weekend. Rui Rio, PSD leader, will be present in the congress. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, was also present in the PSD congress 3 weeks ago.

[Mike88]

Local by-election may be imminent in Darque Parish, Viana do Castelo:

A by-election may be imminent in Darque Parish, Viana do Castelo, after the PS made an executive team with only Socialist members. CDU and PSD wanted to be part on the parish executive, which the PS refused. Now, CDU wants to bring down the parish executive and force a by-election, but it's all in the hands of the PSD which has to decide whether it allies with the Communists or forms a coalition with the PS. The incumbent Parish President, Fernando Garcês, refuses any talks with CDU but is open to talks with the PSD.

Darque Parish has 7,817 inhabitants and belongs to Viana do Castelo municipality. In the 2017 elections, the PS won without a majority:

37.6% PS, 5 seats
28.1% CDU, 4
22.4% PSD, 3
  6.4% CDS, 1
  5.5% Blank/Invalid

46.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the President's job performance:

Approval of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

88.2% Approve
  4.4% Disapprove
  5.7% Average
  1.7% Undecided

Approval by party:

92.1% PSD
87.8% PS
85.3% CDS
84.5% BE
75.2% CDU

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 March 2018. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%