MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

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I'd call it Lean D. The national environment is more likely than not to favor Tester again, and he's not to be underestimated.

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Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

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Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

Why "only"? Did you expect him to win by more than 3 or 4 points? I know it's controversial on this site, but I really don't see him doing better than a 5-point win or so, and that's assuming everything goes right for him. He has a very high floor, but also a pretty low ceiling.

I said "only" just to emphasize that I think it will be close, not to suggest that I thought he would win by a lot. I've always had this race as a Toss-Up, or Tilt D at the most.

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MT, you mentioned Republicans needing to win Yellowstone by about 8 to beat Tester. What would you say are some of the other county targets for the Republicans or for Tester? Would you say that Cascade county is a decent bellwether for this race? I realize it's been a bit more Democratic than the statewide vote as a whole, but I imagine a Republican candidate would at least need to come close to winning it in order to win statewide.

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It'd be nice to get a poll of this race, even though I know that there usually aren't that many MT polls. I mean, I'm sure that Titanium Tester will win in an overwhelming landslide, I'm just curious whether it'll be a 70-point landslide or a 90-point one.

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Looks like we're all going to trigger BRTD with this thread.

Here's some evidence that Tester is a true WWC #populist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn56txhyuoY

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I know, right? Heller ought to campaign for other Republican candidates as well, instead of trying to crack 90% against joke candidate Rosen.

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MT isn’t ND, and early voting numbers are basically meaningless at this point, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that this is not looking like a Tester +24 race.

Right, because it's going to be a Tester +90 race.

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Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

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Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

Rosendale’s underperforming in the most populous counties (populous by MT standards, obviously), and the outstanding vote favors Democrats. Sure, he’ll win Beaverhead, but that’s not going to be enough if he’s only ahead by 0.7% right now. This is looking like Tester +1.5-2 to me.

Ah, I suppose we'll have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure. Well, you were certainly right that this race was never a sure thing for Democrats (I agreed), and if Tester does win, he should consider himself lucky that a Republican is currently president.

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Yeah, they called it for Tester. I guess I just remembered the Democratic counting bias in Montana being more consistent. Looks like his margin will be 2-3%. I'm sure MT Treasurer will love the upcoming #analysis about how #Populist Tester survived in Trump country and is therefore a political titan with god-like abilities to win close races, LOL.

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Looks like Tester's fellow hard-workin', straight-shootin' #populists in Chouteau County (where Tester grew up and has a farm) abandoned him. Tester lost the county this year after winning it in 2012.

Angry MT cows get their revenge.