Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,711
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« on: October 19, 2012, 10:59:53 AM » |
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Nevada polls consistently under-count democratic votes, for a couple of reasons. This poll might be trying to adjust for that, it might be biased, it might be really wrong, it might have gotten lucky and gotten it right. But Democrats tend to be better off in Nevada for a couple of reasons:
1) Spanish-speaking voters (not so much that pollsters don't conduct polls in spanish, but that spanish speakers are probably less likely than english speakers to take polls)
2) Cell-phone only homes based
3) Recent movers, compounding the cell phone - area code dilemma
4) small baseline population compounded with high growth (related to points 2 and 3)
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