2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 207140 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: May 04, 2018, 07:15:37 PM »
Quote from: Alpha says "Abolish ICE" on May 04, 2018, 07:14:27 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on May 04, 2018, 07:07:00 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on May 04, 2018, 12:41:41 PM
Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

Godspeed to Greg Edwards.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2018, 06:51:29 PM »

But I was told millennials are leaving the Democratic Party!
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2018, 08:42:21 AM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2018, 10:03:34 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 30, 2018, 09:59:43 AM
This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.



I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2018, 01:12:57 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on June 01, 2018, 01:10:44 PM


That's a great pick for their first district.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2018, 10:20:51 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on June 04, 2018, 10:20:06 AM
Yeah, Dems almost win an R+13 seat in AZ with a some lady and pick up R+11 PA-18 all in the last three months, but sure, the House is merely a tossup.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2018, 11:58:34 AM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2018, 01:41:30 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on June 04, 2018, 01:38:30 PM
Fitzpatrick is moderate and well-known.

And that's still not enough to prevent him from being under 50% among registered voters, nevermind likely voters where it is almost a tie between him and an opponent which most people don't even know.

Also, the undecided have 34% Trump approval, which suggests most undecided voters go to Wallace.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2018, 08:40:42 AM »

Their last poll was 49-43 Love, so this is actually a tightening of the race.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2018, 01:44:32 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on June 06, 2018, 01:43:09 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 06, 2018, 11:47:37 AM
Quote from: Thunder98 on June 06, 2018, 11:43:59 AM
Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.



Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2018, 12:52:09 PM »
Quote from: Spenstar on June 08, 2018, 12:37:08 PM
Monmoth are the real FFs.

I wonder if we can get them to poll Montana-Senate next

Why poll the race of Titanium Tester? It would just be a waste of time. What's next? Polling NV with Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2018, 08:25:51 PM »
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on June 10, 2018, 08:19:09 PM
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on June 10, 2018, 08:16:49 PM
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on June 10, 2018, 07:50:20 PM
It definitely got him through the primary.

It did make him weaker in the general, but he was vs Hillary, so he was still able to win anyways.

He got through the primary due to
     
       1. Divided Field
       2. Democrat help : http://observer.com/2016/10/wikileaks-reveals-dnc-elevated-trump-to-help-clinton/
       3. Joe Scarborough and his girlfriend Mika
       4. Jeb Bush, Joe Scarborough, and Cuz destruction of Rubio the only candidate who could have defeated both Trump and Hillary.  I admit Rubio assisted.  But a united front would have carried him through.

I dunno. I think Ted Cruz would have been the only person who could beat him in a 1v1. And even then I doubt it. Trump got in the high 40s despite the divided field.

I wouldn't put a ton into him being high 40s in the final nationwide result, given that 23% of his votes were from the final 9 primaries where everyone else had dropped out.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2018, 06:05:36 PM »
PA-10 (PPP, 654 likely voters)

Scott Perry (R-inc) 45
George Scott (D) 41
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2018, 06:02:53 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 15, 2018, 05:58:02 PM
Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

D 51
R 42

Battleground states:

D 49
R 43

That is very encouraging if Dems are up 6 in that batch of states.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2018, 02:24:08 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on June 18, 2018, 02:21:13 PM
Cook moved VA-10 to Lean D.....Cook virtually NEVER has incumbents at anything worse than tossup.

Comstock is doomed.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Yup. I'm tempted to call that seat Likely D at this point.

KY-06 was also moved to Tossup by them, which makes them the first of the big 3 raters (Cook, Sabato, Gonzalez) to do so.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2018, 08:23:40 AM »
Didn't expect this. Shocked
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2018, 11:35:51 AM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 26, 2018, 11:26:52 AM
Quote from: Bagel23 on June 26, 2018, 11:23:45 AM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 26, 2018, 11:18:32 AM
Quote from: Bagel23 on June 26, 2018, 11:16:38 AM
Monmouth says they are releasing a poll tommorow about NJ 11th. I think the dem leads by 4 points.


Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

Yeah, I think the GOP narrowly keeps the house.
Yep, Conor Lamb and Doug Jones are looking to be the exception than the rule. Especially with boring centrist women being nominated over qualified progressive men.
Lamb and Jones are extremely centrist, so I don't have any clue what you're going on about.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2018, 11:53:52 AM »
VA-10: Lean D ----> Likely D
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2018, 01:02:19 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 26, 2018, 12:52:32 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 26, 2018, 11:35:51 AM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 26, 2018, 11:26:52 AM
Quote from: Bagel23 on June 26, 2018, 11:23:45 AM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 26, 2018, 11:18:32 AM
Quote from: Bagel23 on June 26, 2018, 11:16:38 AM
Monmouth says they are releasing a poll tommorow about NJ 11th. I think the dem leads by 4 points.


Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

Yeah, I think the GOP narrowly keeps the house.
Yep, Conor Lamb and Doug Jones are looking to be the exception than the rule. Especially with boring centrist women being nominated over qualified progressive men.
Lamb and Jones are extremely centrist, so I don't have any clue what you're going on about.

It's sarcasm.

It's hofoid, so I doubt he's being sarcastic.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2018, 01:22:34 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2018, 01:28:45 PM by ON Progressive »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on June 26, 2018, 01:17:10 PM


Prediction: Sinema +7 (against McSally), Scott +3, Brown +15
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2018, 01:56:32 PM »
D+7 GCB in Arizona? That's amazing.
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