The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory

[J. J.]

Nym:

1.  I know of no documented Bradley Effect in any primary, nor, except for a few posters here (and I was not of them) any claim that NH had one in 2008.  NH primaries have been notoriously hard to poll and have been since at least 1984.

2.  The question is not was there a Bradley Effect in 1982 and 1989, but in 2006 statewide races.  The answer appears to be yes, in 3 out 4 races (I can't find data for the fifth race, PA).

As a corollary to the second point, how much?  In those three races it appears to be between 2-4 points (though arguably, one poll was seven points off in MA).  Several of those, IIRC were outside of the MOE.

There is no question that black candidates overpolled in 1982 and 1989 statewide by fairly large numbers 9-10 points.  That does not exist today in any polling, but it does look like it does in some states, to a lesser extent.

[J. J.]

The only seclective memory is forgetting Wilder in 1989 (I think it was only 9 points).

[J. J.]

Nym:

1.  I know of no documented Bradley Effect in any primary, nor, except for a few posters here (and I was not of them) any claim that NH had one in 2008.  NH primaries have been notoriously hard to poll and have been since at least 1984.

2.  The question is not was there a Bradley Effect in 1982 and 1989, but in 2006 statewide races.  The answer appears to be yes, in 3 out 4 races (I can't find data for the fifth race, PA).

As a corollary to the second point, how much?  In those three races it appears to be between 2-4 points (though arguably, one poll was seven points off in MA).  Several of those, IIRC were outside of the MOE.

There is no question that black candidates overpolled in 1982 and 1989 statewide by fairly large numbers 9-10 points.  That does not exist today in any polling, but it does look like it does in some states, to a lesser extent.

3 out of the 4 black candidates were also Republicans, and Republicans overpolled in 2006. It was a Democratic wave year, and in wave elections the party that has the wind at its back usually overpolls.

Not to mention 3 out of 4 races overpolling within the MOE proves nothing anyway, due to having such a small sample size. If I could show that in 3 out of 4 races right handed candidates overpolled, would you assert that proves a polling bias against right handers?

Only two of the were Republicans and I think that all three were out of the MOE.  It was one of things that I looked at.

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That still doesn't take into account Wilder.

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We'll probably have a number of polls to look at, in this race.  That's one reason I'm bringing it up.

I've actually figured in 1-2 points, but in OH, MA, and MD, it lkooks like it was between 2-4 points.

[J. J.]

Why isn't the range 0-4% instead of 2-4% for your estimate of the B.E.'s range in 2006?

In the three, no.  Putting in Ford, yes.  Swann, I can't find late polling.  There was for Patrick that was 7 off.

[J. J.]

Why isn't the range 0-4% instead of 2-4% for your estimate of the B.E.'s range in 2006?

In the three, no.  Putting in Ford, yes.  Swann, I can't find late polling.  There was for Patrick that was 7 off.

But you've stated before that 2006 overall indicated a Bradley Effect of 2-4%.  I just don't get why the minimum wouldn't be -0.5%.

Also, SUSA was uniformly +5% pro-Dem in every race I saw them in, black guy or not, that year.  They are responsible for a huge chunk of that late-minute voting....

But I shouldn't argue with you about this, I know how passionately you believe in this effect materializing.   I'm just quibbling over your 2-4% representation of that year.

I said 2-4 point measured in those three races (and discounted the 7 point one).  I've been clear over time that it didn't occur in Ford's race.  I could say 0-7 points, but I prefer the middle.

It also wasn't the black candidate over polling as much as the Republican underpolling.

I've also used a 1-2 point model; that might be an underestimate. 

I wish I could get a measure of PA.