2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

[Rowan]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

[Rowan]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

For plenty of reasons, Christie has been endorsed by every single county Republican party in the state. He has also been endorsed by all the Republican house members(even the super-conservative Chris Smith). He has outraised Lonegan by a long shot, and Lonegan ran for Governor in 2005 and got 8% of the vote in the primary. Lonegan has lost every race he has run in(except for mayor of a small town).

[Verily]

Smith isn't all that conservative other than foaming at the mouth whenever stem cell research is mentioned. You might be thinking of Garrett.

[Rowan]

Smith isn't all that conservative other than foaming at the mouth whenever stem cell research is mentioned. You might be thinking of Garrett.

Well he is pro-life to the max, is what I meant.

Garrett hasn't endorsed anyone if I'm not mistaken.

[Verily]

Smith isn't all that conservative other than foaming at the mouth whenever stem cell research is mentioned. You might be thinking of Garrett.

Well he is pro-life to the max, is what I meant.

Garrett hasn't endorsed anyone if I'm not mistaken.

Because is the really conservative one. National Journal rankings (warning: extreme bias) actually put Smith as one of the most centrist Republicans. Not a huge surprise considering he's a (non-Dixiecrat) defector.

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

For plenty of reasons, Christie has been endorsed by every single county Republican party in the state. He has also been endorsed by all the Republican house members(even the super-conservative Chris Smith). He has outraised Lonegan by a long shot, and Lonegan ran for Governor in 2005 and got 8% of the vote in the primary. Lonegan has lost every race he has run in(except for mayor of a small town).

None of that is a reason why he would be polling so terribly (especially the fact that Lonegan has lost every race he has ever run for besides Mayor. Spare us the talking points. Those are reasons he shouldn't be supported, not necessarily why he isn't being supported).

People don't tell pollsters who they want based on who has their county line or who has the bigger/better/most endorsements.

Fundraising matters when you put the funds you've raised to good use.

[Brittain33]

Smith isn't all that conservative other than foaming at the mouth whenever stem cell research is mentioned. You might be thinking of Garrett.

Well he is pro-life to the max, is what I meant.

Smith's also homophobic, and beyond simply voting for anti-gay legislation.

[Rowan]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

For plenty of reasons, Christie has been endorsed by every single county Republican party in the state. He has also been endorsed by all the Republican house members(even the super-conservative Chris Smith). He has outraised Lonegan by a long shot, and Lonegan ran for Governor in 2005 and got 8% of the vote in the primary. Lonegan has lost every race he has run in(except for mayor of a small town).

Fundraising matters when you put the funds you've raised to good use.

Exactly, Christie has had 2 TV ads already and radio ads as well. Lonegan has not been on the air(at least not that I have heard).

What's your obsession of having the most conservative candidate as possible win the primary in order to lose the general election? Your thought process is frankly flawed.

[Keystone Phil]

What's your obsession of having the most conservative candidate as possible win the primary in order to lose the general election? Your thought process is frankly dumb.

...

Is this serious? I wanted to give you a chance to redeem yourself but I'll just embarrass you instead...

I've said several times here that I do not want Lonegan and that he is a nutcase. I've said several times here that I want Christie. Just because I want someone doesn't mean that they're running a great campaign or that I can't acknowledge when they're faltering/the other guy is gaining.

I point out that a respectable polling firm (a firm with way more respect than SV) shows Lonegan gaining and that suddenly means I want Lonegan? You're a joke poster, dude. Get your damn facts straight about who I support and why I support them. I don't always support the most conservative candidate and I never just support someone because they're more conservative than their opponent(s).

Know what you're talking about before you post.

[Keystone Phil]

For Rowan:

Yeah, basically everyone dislikes Lonegan.

[Rowan]

You seriously think that Lonegan is gaining based off one poll? Lonegan still has little name-recognition in the state(less than Christie) and has lower favorables among Republicans in that Quinnipiac poll(Christie is at 56-4, Lonegan is at 35-4). If that many Republicans still don't know who you are, I would be hesistant to call that "gaining ground". Also, who's to say that Quinnipiac even has a realistic likely voter model?

[Keystone Phil]

A few more ringing endorsements for Lonegan from your's truly...

If the voters knew how Pro Life Lonegan is, Corzine would lead by forty.

Steve Lonegan (high name recognition)

High nutjob recognition also.

And DWTL, Steven Lonegan will never be a strong candidate for statewide office in NJ. Ever. Don't ever suggest that.

[Keystone Phil]

You seriously think that Lonegan is gaining based off one poll? Lonegan still has little name-recognition in the state(less than Christie) and has lower favorables among Republicans in that Quinnipiac poll(Christie is at 56-4, Lonegan is at 35-4). If that many Republicans still don't know who you are, I would be hesistant to call that "gaining ground". Also, who's to say that Quinnipiac even has a realistic likely voter model?

I notice no acknowledgment on your part that the idea that I ever supported Lonegan is insane. Not surprising.

How does Lonegan have lower name recognition in NJ? He ran in 2005 and has been heavily involved ever since. The base knows and, sadly, likes the guy.

As for your last point, I don't know what you're trying to say. Whose to say that SV has a realistic likely voter model? Do you want to keep trying to poke holes in the reputation of Quinnipiac just because you don't like their results? If so, we can keep doing the same for SV (whose reputation is actually fairly poor).

[Rowan]

You seriously think that Lonegan is gaining based off one poll? Lonegan still has little name-recognition in the state(less than Christie) and has lower favorables among Republicans in that Quinnipiac poll(Christie is at 56-4, Lonegan is at 35-4). If that many Republicans still don't know who you are, I would be hesistant to call that "gaining ground". Also, who's to say that Quinnipiac even has a realistic likely voter model?

I notice no acknowledgment on your part that the idea that I ever supported Lonegan is insane. Not surprising.

How does Lonegan have lower name recognition in NJ? He ran in 2005 and has been heavily involved ever since. The base knows and, sadly, likes the guy.

As for your last point, I don't know what you're trying to say. Whose to say that SV has a realistic likely voter model? Do you want to keep trying to poke holes in the reputation of Quinnipiac just because you don't like their results? If so, we can keep doing the same for SV (whose reputation is actually fairly poor).

I'm not questioning Quinnipiac at all. They're registered voter poll had Christie up by 15. My question is, who is to say that they know what a "likely voter" actually is? And yes, the same can be said of SV as well. I just showed you the poll that showed that Lonegan had lower name recognition, it was in the same poll that you are touting.

Sorry for thinking that you supported this psycho, it just seemed like it from the tone of your posts.

[Keystone Phil]

I just showed you the poll that showed that Lonegan had lower name recognition, it was in the same poll that you are touting.

Ok so, at the same time, I can ask why you're touting their favorable ratings (showing Christie higher than Lonegan). 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Shaftan's poll company also released a nugget in 2006 showing the Bergen County Freeholder race to be totally a dead heat and Republicans are looking good and..

...the poll is worse than garbage.

[Verily]

You seriously think that Lonegan is gaining based off one poll? Lonegan still has little name-recognition in the state(less than Christie) and has lower favorables among Republicans in that Quinnipiac poll(Christie is at 56-4, Lonegan is at 35-4). If that many Republicans still don't know who you are, I would be hesistant to call that "gaining ground". Also, who's to say that Quinnipiac even has a realistic likely voter model?

That's the whole point. Lonegan gains as his name recognition goes up; Christie does not (in the primary, GE is something else). Obviously Lonegan is battling low name recognition, among other things, and there's a high chance he won't win that battle. But it's not clear that he wouldn't win if he and Christie were on equal footing, name-rec wise, and that leaves Christie in danger of a push from Lonegan.

Anyway, Lonegan has a little over a month to pump up his name rec, which is both a long time and no time at all. We'll see.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

By the way, the poll we're talking about has Christie at 36 and Lonegan at 34.5%. By virtue of the line and by virtue of Christie having all of them, you'd have to expect undecideds to break heavily for whomever is endorsed by the county parties (and thus on top of the ballot with the slate of incumbents).

[Rowan]

Libertarians pick Kaplan.

http://www.politickernj.com/editor/29300/libertarians-pick-kaplan-governor

Never heard of him.

[Zarn]

I'm not a fan of vouchers, but he would have my vote should Lonegan win the primary (Given what Kaplan is currently running on).

It's not like I'd vote for either Lonegan or Corzine.

[Eraserhead]

So Lonegan actually has a shot at winning the primary? Are Republicans really that suicidal?

[Rowan]

Are Republicans really that suicidal?

Sadly, yes.

[Zarn]

His supporters are trying to talk him up as some fiscal hero, and lie about where Christie stands.