Best to ignore polls for ST
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  Best to ignore polls for ST
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Author Topic: Best to ignore polls for ST  (Read 212 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« on: March 02, 2020, 01:24:44 PM »

- Biden got huge momentum coming out of SC
- Buttigieg dropped out of the race.

I think Biden will vastly overperform on ST and will probably bet some money on Biden. I think Bloomberg will underperform and Sanders slightly underperform his polls. I expect Biden to win a majority of states, and to be roughly equal with Sanders after ST on delegate count. The race is back on, and as a Sanders supporter it's going to be insanely hard to win this race, and win a majority of the delegates. SC might have done it folks for Biden.

I wouldn't trust polls that much. There is too much volatility, and results will be far off because of some factors that are out of the race.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2020, 01:25:30 PM »

Biden will do very well tomorrow, compared to expectations.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2020, 01:26:27 PM »

Biden will do very well tomorrow, compared to expectations.
Sadly, you'll be right. He'll do very well.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2020, 01:28:07 PM »

Yep, expect Biden to win TN/AL/AR/OK easily and be favored in VA/NC.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2020, 01:29:14 PM »

Biden will do very well tomorrow, compared to expectations.
Sadly, you'll be right. He'll do very well.

Ok, he is gonna get closer than expected to Bernie in states, he was to win all along. That isnt gonna stop Bernie from continuing his improbable campaign
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2020, 01:29:56 PM »

Yep, expect Biden to win TN/AL/AR/OK easily and be favored in VA/NC.

I’m not sure he’ll win OK easily (I’d be very surprised if he did better in OK than VA/NC), but overall I don’t disagree that Biden will probably do better than polling suggests in most states.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2020, 01:35:53 PM »

I was watching Meet The Press yesterday, and one of the commentators had previously said that Bernie would "in no way, be behind Biden in SC by more than 12/15%" after the primary results for that State were tabulated.

But yet the difference was about twice that, at close to 30% points!
Biden did quite well in SC, and that is what makes me (also) think that he will do slightly/somewhat better than what the polls are currently showing for Super Tuesday (on top of the fact that Buttigieg is out).
But we need to wait and see. Viewing the results tomorrow night should be fun and interesting.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2020, 01:38:45 PM »

As stated already, Biden is performing below expectations,  he was supposed to win all of these states outright
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