2004 Democratic Primary

[Nym90]

I agree that allowing greater dominance of ownership of the media by just a few sources, as the FCC has recently done, is a VERY bad idea.

[jravnsbo]

Have to be more specific.  He freaks out all the time on talk shows.  He is beginning to make Dean look Calm.

Anyone see Clark in the last debate freak out?

[Flying Dog]

The Media only LEANS left

[jravnsbo]

Anyone see Capitol Report?

The GOP guy was keeping Dean alive and talking about him being nominee and Joe Lockhart for the Dems was running Dean downa nd talking about his electability.

[DarthKosh]

Anyone see Capitol Report?

The GOP guy was keeping Dean alive and talking about him being nominee and Joe Lockhart for the Dems was running Dean downa nd talking about his electability.

The Dems know that Dean is going to be a disaster for them.

[emergingDmajority1]

Jobless claims rise
 
New weekly claims for unemployment benefits higher last week than Wall Street forecasts.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/04/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

this is weekly jobless claims, it got buried today. Tomorrow they're waiting for better numbers I hear...

Retailers still seek holiday cheer
 
Discounters Wal-Mart and Target post sales gains, but department stores continue to disappoint.
December 4, 2003: 3:08 PM EST
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money Staff Writer
 


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Major U.S. retailers released November sales results Thursday showing that consumers overall were more value-conscious than ever as the holiday shopping season got under way.

 http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/04/news/companies/retail_sales/index.htm

[jravnsbo]

love how the GOP posters post the positive numbers and the Dems post the negative ones.

Balance I guess

[emergingDmajority1]

there was a rise in employment for November, though it was a small one, about 57,000, it takes about 120,000-140,000 per month to keep up with the growing population.

[John]

Ben, I think that your predictions are overly generous to the Democrats, but only time will tell.

If Dean is the Democratic nominee, I think that Bush will carry all of the states that he won in 2000, plus pick up, potentially, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and New Mexico.  Depending upon the political climate leading up the election, the next tier for him to crack would be Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington and California.  I think the least likely states for Bush are New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

Overall, I would generally expect Dean to perform about as well as Dukakis in 1988, although not with exactly the same state alignment.

Gephardt would be more of a problem for Bush, since he has quasi-southern roots, and could possibly pick up some states that Bush won in 2000, such as Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio, plus damage Bush's chances of picking up some of the midwestern states that he may need, such as Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota.

Overall, out of the current sorry pack of Democratic challengers, I think Gephardt has the best chance of beating Bush.
[/quout
BUSH IS THE MAN HE WILL WIN 279 VOTES TO 259

[jravnsbo]

Unemployment did drop another .1 to 5.9%; so still going it he right direction.  Just not as fast as expected.

[Wakie]

Productivity boomed in 3Q
 
Government's measure of output per worker hour revised to fastest pace in 20 years.

Nonfarm business productivity, or worker output per hour, rose at an upwardly revised 9.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the strongest surge since the second quarter of 1983, the Labor Department said.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/03/news/economy/productivity.reut/index.htm

Personally I'm very hesitant to look at these rising productivity #'s and believe they are sustainable.  Productivity went up in the 90's because of the boom in information technology.  Americans were able to work smarter.

Over the last few years though, companies have reduced IT spending and many American workers have been running scared for their jobs.  Personally I've seen people pretty much doing anything they can to retain their jobs.  While this is good for business in the short term, human beings burn out.

Hopefully the economy is turning around but I'm hesitant.  After 3 years of poor economic conditions I'm not ready to declare this better.  My gut feeling is the money is flowing again but that it is really staying at the top.

[NorthernDog]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Although Bush is unpopular in the more urban areas of Western Washington, he's not unpopular in general.  I can't say that Washington is going to be solid Bush country in '04, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win the state.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd be interested in hearing about any polls coming out of Washington after the holidays.My impression is that Washington state had become more liberal since the mid 1990s and was out of reach for the GOP (unless there's a 1984 style landslide).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

love how the GOP posters post the positive numbers and the Dems post the negative ones.

Balance I guess

I would like to know how you figured that this thread was unbalanced to begin with.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Unemployment did drop another .1 to 5.9%; so still going it he right direction.  Just not as fast as expected.

"Not as fast as expected"?!  

FYI - the unemployment rate was expected to be flat and remain at 6.0%, so the 5.9% was BETTER than expected.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

there was a rise in employment for November, though it was a small one, about 57,000, it takes about 120,000-140,000 per month to keep up with the growing population.

Of course, you fail to mention (probably due to your lack of knowledge) that the California grocery strike reduced overall payroll gains by about 25,800 to 30,800.

Also, look for the +57k to be revised upward since these initial reading have an error rate of plus or minus 100k!

And, at last, you also fail to note that these numbers are seasonally adjusted, meaning that MANY MORE that +57k new jobs were created in Nov, but fewer than a typical Nov.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Weekly Leading Index Slips  
 
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - A leading index of the U.S. economy slipped in the latest week, suggesting the current breakneck pace of recovery could moderate slightly, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its leading index fell to 130.4 in the week ended Nov. 28, compared with a downwardly revised reading of 131.5 for the previous week.

"There's a small hint of moderation on the horizon, but the economic recovery is not going to collapse," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.

A drop in mortgage applications and commodity prices helped to pull the gauge down in the latest week, although stock market gains lessened the fall, Achuthan said.

The index's growth rate, an annualized rate for the four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, slowed to 11.6 percent from 11.9 percent in the previous week.

http://businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=603

---

Oct. factory orders top estimates
 
Demand for manufactured goods rises 2.2%, highest rate in over a year.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/05/news/economy/factory_orders.reut/index.htm

[ABD]

Hello!  This is my first post.  I was put on to Dave's presidential website some time ago...but only now have I signed up.  Dave congrats on a great web site.

I worked at in the Conservative Research Department, and the press office there, until quite recently, and so I am familiar with almost all of the comings and goings of shadow ministers and staff.  May I offer then a few comments on the recent Tory changes, and the prospect of the Lib Dems becoming the official Opposition?

The reason the Liberal Democrat vote in the UK has been artificially high in recent times was, sadly, the perception of drift under IDS - and this has been shown to be the case in recent polls since Howard has become leader.  Lib Dem support has dropped by around 8 points (according to ICM I think).

A Tory landslide this does not make, and there is a long way to go - but it does show that the idea that the Tories are to become party #3 is about as credible as the leadership credentials of Charlie Kennedy, Carol Moseley-Braun or Carmen Lawerence!

The key to this is that what the Tories have lacked for a decade, need for any revival to occur, and now appear to have regained - is an ethos of professionalism.  Howard, Fox and Saatchi will whip Westminster into shape and get them back into the habit of success again.

I wouldn't like to bet the outcome of a by-election in an upper middle class Lib Dem seat in the south in say, six months to twelve months time.  If such a byelection took place, and such a vote takes place, and the Tories win, then we'll know it's really Game On.

Look forward to getting to know you on this forum!

ABD

[ABD]

OK, as an alumnii of Conservative Central Office, and as you Poms say, a political 'anorak', I'm going to predict the Tories will have a solid nett gain of seats.  How many, I think is too early to say.  We don't know how the leadership change will go down with the people that REALLY matter if there is to be a Tory revival - getting those that voted Tory in 1992 to either
(a) come out to vote again, or
(b) come back to the Tories from the Lib Dems or Labour.
Not to mention how the campaign pans out, etc etc....

However, I will make one bold prediction on the outcome of the 2005 general election - in Scotland.  My understanding is that a redistribution of boundaries is due but won't be in place for the next general election.  In which case there'll still be 72 or so seats up for grabs.  At the moment they have one - Galloway and Upper Nithsdale.  I think they will hold that, and gain at least four more.  Ayr, Perth, Edinburgh Pentlands, and Dumfries.  I base this on a combination of the results of the Scottish vote in May, the quality of the Tory machine in those seats and the demographic features of those seats.

I'll make a more solid prediction closer to the time. : )

ABD

[ABD]

If the Labour Party choose anyone other than Tony Blair it means they will have rediscovered their taste for doing anything other than being electable.  Which would delight me.

Clare Short is like Carmen Lawrence in Australia - the sort of MP that tries to console themselves that life after Cabinet isn't that bad if you can wrap yourselves up in leftish moral vanity.

And Bryant?  Not now, I don't think.....

[Nym90]

I feel that the media leans neither left or right, but rather in favor of profits (since they are after all businesses). Sometimes the pursuit of profits leads them to temporarily lean left or right, but no media outlet can afford to let its political leanings consistently come ahead of profits.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure whether that picture will actually damage Bryant a lot...
He's a Labour M.P and is on the wrong end of a homophobic campaign by the Daily Hate Mail, which will probably improve his position in his constituancy(Rhondda. And no, there is no chance of him losing it), he is talented and certainly should be made a minister at some point.

I think that Watson would make a good P.M but he's way too young now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I actually would predict a net loss of seats for the Tories...
They are in serious trouble in real rural seats(which is where the Liberals really are expanding), although Howard should hang on in faux-suburban Folkstone and Hythe.
But I'm calling Davis, May and Letwin down.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A BQ M.P has defected to the LPC, the CA has voted to merge with the PC's, the PC's vote on it TODAY, and a poll for CBC shows the LPC on 58%, the NDP on 18% and the soon-to-be CPC on 13%...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've decided to have another go at PA:

Pennsylvania

01 Philadelphia South b
02 Philadelphia North b
03 Erie c
04 Beaver and Allegheny c
05 Pennsylvania North c
06 Chester and Berks b
07 Chester b
08 Bucks c
09 Pennsylvania South c
10 Susquehanna c
11 Wilkes-Barre and Scrantonc
12 Johnstown and Washington c
13 Philadelphia Valley Forge b
14 Pittsburgh and Steel Valley b
15 Allentown c
16 West Chester and Lancaster c
17 Harrisburg c
18 Westmoreland and Washingtonc
19 Gettysburg c

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting begins tomorrow!

United Russia(pro-Putin) seems certain to win(according to the BBC) but the Commies might run them close.