German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

In 2013, the CSU received 47.7% in Bavaria and, two weeks later, 49.5% in the general election (Union nationwide: 41.5%). In the 2017 general election, the CSU received 38.8% and the Union 32.9% on a nationwide level. The Union is currently polling at 26%. One would therefore expect the CSU to receive around one third of the vote, especially if you consider the fact that FW attract more voters on the state level, particularly when the Union finds itself in perilous times and FW doesn't carry any baggage from Berlin. Instead, the CSU received 37.2% of the vote, certainly above all reasonable expectations: the CSU has outperformed the Union by more than in 2013.

I think quite a few voters intended to vote FDP or AfD but came home for CSU, convinced by their campaign. Hence the difference between the trendline in the pre-election polls and the result. Perhaps these people were always going to vote for the CSU - but perhaps not. And I definitely think CSU's hardline stance on immigration may have been part of what it took to have these voters come home.

[DavidB.]

Does somebody have maps about historical vote of Bayernparty. 

The real voting patterns or the ones after the voter fraud that occurs because of the anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy?

[DavidB.]

Small defense of Blair (!) - he never did anything as blatantly economically right-wing Agenda 2010 (although he tried).

Yes, this is a very important point to understand. This is why the Labour Left did not leave as the SPD Left did.

That, and FPTP...

[DavidB.]

Is a red-green-red government likely (or in this case, green-red-red)?

No, as has been alluded to on this very same page.

[DavidB.]

Germany is becoming more Dutch by the day.

[DavidB.]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

[DavidB.]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

I think they're both equally supportive of the EU.

Not what I mean. Who is more likely to oppose mass immigration as much as possible?

[DavidB.]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

[DavidB.]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.

[DavidB.]

Oh, fully agreed with that; just didn't interpret Republicanbayer's comment as a comparison to Merz. But if he's that more likeable/"electable" than Spahn while the policy difference is negligible, it's obviously worth it.

Government cooperation with AfD seems unthinkable; even a minority government relying on them seems not one, but a lot of bridges too far. Especially in a country where minority governments are unheard of and such constructions make people think of... other times of instability. AfD supporting such a government would make it even more unpalatable to people.