All things being equal, I think this is what the electoral map will look like in 2012. I don't believe, however, that all things will be nearly equal. Also, I think that 2012 will also be the breaking point of the current alignment and start our country off in a totally different direction. I'll explain in what I invision happening over the next couple of days.
Pretty good, though I think Michigan is trending Republican. Also, Illinois might have a very small Republican trend, but not like the one you put in there. I also agree that Georgia will be getting closer, but I don't think it will be that changed by 2012. New Mexico is a hard state to predict. It all depends on how Hispanics trend. I put it at slightly lean Dem, but your version seems completely plausible also. As a side note, Pennsylvania will be a toss up if not slightly leaning towards the Republicans by 2012.
I don't seee much change in PA from slight Dem lean by 2012. The Republican drifts in the wesy will continue to be canceled out by Dem shifts in the SE and the state as a whole willbbe little changed
But look at the overall trend of Pennsylvania.
It was closer than New York in 1984.
Dukakis only lost it by two points.
Clinton only did slightly better than his national average in 1996.
Gore won it by 4.
Kerry won it by 2.5.
I think there is a slight trend to the Republicans there.
1984 was an anomaly being Western PAs economy was nearing Depression status. However the economy improved there and their socially conservative colors are now showing. Southeastern PA now has unprecedented Democratic growth in areas that during Reagan were solidly Republican. True, we slid compared to national averages, but I'd still say we are slightly more Dem than the average and the "Southeast 5" determines Pennsylvania's outcome.
