Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

[lilTommy]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

I don't think the by-election is very representative. This is not 2016, this election has been a game changer; the NDP are polling at least 10% higher then back then, looking at the 2014 general results they NDP pulled in 23%, their 3rd best in Durham region behind Oshawa and Durham (24%). Durham also, unlike York has much more of an NDP history and demographic base in that Durham is still more working class/industrial while still being a commuter region. I think it holds that the NDP are not crazy at all to target Whitby and Durham, particularly when the NDP polls much much worse in Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

I don't base all of my conclusions on past election results. Past election results do imply the NDP can't win the riding, but you do have to realize in this election in particular, there will be quite a bit of surprises on election night, so you will have to suspend your disbelief a little bit.

The NDP are doing quite well in Durham Region right now; that can't all be in Oshawa... and it's certainly not in Pickering or Ajax.

[PeteB]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

I don't think the by-election is very representative. This is not 2016, this election has been a game changer; the NDP are polling at least 10% higher then back then, looking at the 2014 general results they NDP pulled in 23%, their 3rd best in Durham region behind Oshawa and Durham (24%). Durham also, unlike York has much more of an NDP history and demographic base in that Durham is still more working class/industrial while still being a commuter region. I think it holds that the NDP are not crazy at all to target Whitby and Durham, particularly when the NDP polls much much worse in Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge.

I don't fault NDP for targeting Whitby.  If they want to win, they have to go after all the ridings and as you say, Whitby may be a better bet than Pickering or Ajax.  In fact I do think that the NDP have a reasonable shot in Durham and should, if anything, be more actively targeting that one.  But in this political landscape, where the PC vote is reasonably steady, especially in York and Durham, where the candidates are the same ones from two years ago, to actively hope to overcome a 37% deficit is a tall order (as in cold day in hell tall order ).

[King of Kensington]

Is Whitby really that much more winnable than Ajax/Pickering?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Whitby really that much more winnable than Ajax/Pickering?

Yes.

FWIW, without leaking anything, our internal numbers show the NDP can win Whitby. Just sayin'.

[Krago]

Something tells me that we've reached Peak Horwath in the polls.  

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

The Liberals would rather rebuild for four years under a Ford majority government than face being sidelined by Premier Horwath.  Care or cuts; Kathleen Wynne has made her choice.  And she's not sorry.

[PeteB]

Something tells me that we've reached Peak Horwath in the polls.  

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

The Liberals would rather rebuild for four years under a Ford majority government than face being sidelined by Premier Horwath.  Care or cuts; Kathleen Wynne has made her choice.

I would never underestimate the PC ability to self-destruct, although interestingly Doug Ford has avoided that so far.  For now though, with a stable PC electorate and with the strong debate performance by Wynne, NDP may have nowhere else to go.  But there are nine days left, and anything is still possible, all the way from Premier Horwath, to Liberals as the Official Opposition, and the NDP in third. 

I do believe however that the Liberals would rather prop up an NDP government, than a Doug Ford one.

[King of Kensington]

Yes.

FWIW, without leaking anything, our internal numbers show the NDP can win Whitby. Just sayin'.

BTW, my point wasn't to dismiss the NDP chances in Whitby.  But these three suburbs seem pretty similar demographically.  I guess it's Oshawa spillover/cultural influence?

(Yeah I know Whitby is in the Oshawa CMA but that doesn't mean much.  Commuting patterns show Whitby to be more of a Toronto suburb than an Oshawa one.  The Oshawa CMA only exists because CMAs can't be merged).

[Hatman 🍁]

CMAs can't be merged? Didn't Montreal just swallow up Saint-Jean in the last census?

I would imagine that Oshawa's influence on Whitby (even if it is less than Toronto) is playing a major factor.

[King of Kensington]

BTW, is there any chance of the "but Hudak went too far" vote goes back to the PCs in large enough numbers to prevail in Oshawa or at least make it competitive?  I would think not given the surge but that vote returning seemed probable going into the election.

[King of Kensington]

CMAs can't be merged? Didn't Montreal just swallow up Saint-Jean in the last census?

I would imagine that Oshawa's influence on Whitby (even if it is less than Toronto) is playing a major factor.

CAs can be added to CMAs, but CMAs are retained for historic comparability.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/92-195-x/2011001/geo/cma-rmr/def-eng.htm

[PeteB]

BTW, is there any chance of the "but Hudak went too far" vote goes back to the PCs in large enough numbers to prevail in Oshawa?  I would think not given the surge but that vote returning seemed probable going into the election.

Difficult to say.  You would think that some of the Ford populism would resonate with the working class electorate in Oshawa, but historically, PC won there only when the Liberals and NDP split their vote (in the 2015 Federal election, Conservatives won with 38% against a combined 59% for NDP/Liberals).  With the Liberals trending pretty low, I would say NDP should easily hold Oshawa.  If they can't, with a well known incumbent, they probably have much bigger problems.

[DL]

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

I'm not so sure that the PCs are suffering no "ill effects". 10 days ago they were in the low 40s and had a hefty ten point lead in most polls. In the wake of the various scandals and more and more flack over the last of a platform they have dropped to the 37-38% range. That is significant.

I totally disagree that the Liberals have given up on "business Liberals" and are targetting "progressive Liberals". Its the exact opposite. Wynne is attacking the NDP for being too leftwing and too pro-labour. They are tryng to save ridings like St. Paul's and win back the "I'm too smart top vote for Ford but i'm also too rich to vote NDP" crowd (in other words business Liberals) 

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't mind if they're able to keep a few "John Tory Liberal" seats.

[Krago]

Here is a chart that I've prepared that tries to predict possible outcomes based on PC and NDP polling.

[ON Progressive]

I wouldn't mind if they're able to keep a few "John Tory Liberal" seats.

Same here. Those seats seem like they would go PC before going NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a chart that I've prepared that tries to predict possible outcomes based on PC and NDP polling.

So 4% is the magic number. The NDP needs to win by 4 points. Makes sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends on vote-splits and where the electoral movement is. The funny thing about this insistence that the existence of a large number of rock-solid rural Tory ridings operates as a structural advantage for that party is that, while it can do under certain circumstances it would have the opposite effect.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't mind if they're able to keep a few "John Tory Liberal" seats.

Same here. Those seats seem like they would go PC before going NDP.

Silly Dippers. The only correct response for us non-natural governing party types is to hope the Liberals go down in flames. Its the same reason I'm rooting for the NDP in Kingston and Thunder Bay.

[ON Progressive]

Don't have numbers since I am not subscribed, but Mainstreet is apparently saying on the daily tracker that PCs are down, and gains are split between OLP and NDP. Puts the NDP in first place by a hair.

[King of Kensington]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

[ON Progressive]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Mainstreet riding polls have a very long history of underestimating left wing support (see: BC election)

[PeteB]

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

I'm not so sure that the PCs are suffering no "ill effects". 10 days ago they were in the low 40s and had a hefty ten point lead in most polls. In the wake of the various scandals and more and more flack over the last of a platform they have dropped to the 37-38% range. That is significant.

I totally disagree that the Liberals have given up on "business Liberals" and are targetting "progressive Liberals". Its the exact opposite. Wynne is attacking the NDP for being too leftwing and too pro-labour. They are tryng to save ridings like St. Paul's and win back the "I'm too smart top vote for Ford but i'm also too rich to vote NDP" crowd (in other words business Liberals)  

And apparently the proof is in the pudding:

Beleaguered Wynne joins Ford on anti-NDP bandwagon, warning Andrea Horwath’s party would be bad for business
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/29/wynne-pledges-to-pump-another-900-million-into-helping-companies-expand-and-create-jobs-over-the-next-decade.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing too surprising, really. Still not good news for the NDP's chances. Have to hope Mainstreet is indeed underpolling them.