Iceland parliamentary election

[politicus]

Journalist Ingi Freyr Vilhjálmsson has written a piece called "Management of the wealthy classes" in DV about the coming government and Icelands chances of getting rid of "the old ways". I hope he isnt right, but the article definetly sums up the fears of the Icelandic left.

"Few things can prevent the Independence Party and the Progressive Party from being the country's two largest political parties after the upcoming elections. The only question is which party will be larger and consequently whether Bjarni Benediktsson sits in the chair or Sigmund David Gunnlaugsson will be Prime Minister".

"Is it not obvious that these two groups would together form a strong management in the wake of the election rather than either party reaching out and governing together with more parties? I think so, the ideology and interests of the parties overlap".
 
"When the Progressive throws the mask after the votes are counted, it turns out that it is too right winged to be considered credible as a "peoples party" and "household protector". The Progressives is first and foremost about power; the party is everything and anything - anything - if it means just cause for governing every time. The party does not stand for anything other than being a mask for lobbyists and developers of huge scale facilities".

"What is the Progressive Party? Answer: discretion. Who are the progressives? Answer: Ásgrímsson, Alfred Thorsteinsson, Gunnlaugur Sigmundsson (SDGs dad), Finnur Ingólfsson Bjorn Ingi Hrafnsson, Oscar Bergsson and Sigmund David Gunnlaugsson. Kind of a corporate will department for special interests, ignoring households and collective interests for the interests of a chosen few; the chosen ones on top of big fishing and the barons of the landbúnaðar (agricultural association) will be at the forefront".

"So history repeats itself. In 1995 after the end of "the evaporator" strong feelings bound these two groups together for twelve years and they trust their entrenched power on privatization and class interest".

"Upstairs in Hádegismóum (Morgunbladids office) sits David Oddsson, the most powerful man behind the scenes in the Independence Party, still being called "chairman" of some independents, and gets Guðni Ágústsson (minister of agriculture under Oddsson and PP chairman 2007-08) to visit him together with the pilot Thorolf Gislason, relative of (Sigmundur) David and the most powerful man behind the scenes in the Progressive Party. The power of these two men in the two parties is subject to debate, however, they are informal - and let their "surface cousins" ​​keep the strings (or reins) in the parties as both are more sophisticated than most".
 
"Their interests revolve around keeping Iceland outside the European Union, protecting the currency, prevent changes to the quota system, the Constitution, the resource provisions; all rule changes that brings wealth and power to those opposite them.
(giving the elite POV)...abolish the wealth tax which feels too heavy for these family groups and even drives them out of the country, stop providing pointless funds to the Office of the Special Prosecutor so he can research the friends and family members of these parties, and in general to correct the discouraging leftist bias that has been in Icelandic community in recent years".
 
"This government of the Independents and Progressives is probably already in the cards. Bjarni Benediktsson said, when asked in an interview with the prime time news on Friday that he believed the Progressives to be next to the Independence Party in "the political spectrum" and that therefore he would prefer to work with the group after the election, however, it was not the "only option".

"The difference between Independence and Progressives is that the former do not try to lie to people that it is anything other than it is, an instrument for special interests. Voters know where they have the party while the Progressive Party covers itself with socialism".

"The next boom is hanging in the air around the corner and the majority of the population is eager to disappear towards a new adventure with the Independence Party and Progressive Party in control".

[politicus]

Some nicknames for Icelandic politicians:

Prime Minister Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir - Lady Gaga, heilaga Jóhanna ('holy Jóhanna')

Former LG chairman Steingrímur Jóhann Sigfússon - allsherjarráðherran ('the general minister'), Skattgrímur (tax-Grimur), Skallagrímur (bald-Grimur, but also a character in the Sagas), Steinbítur (the catfish), Georg Bjarnfreðarson (a caricature of an old school Communist by comedian Jón Gnarr).


Steingrímur Sigfússon - The man with more nicknames than any other Icelandic politician.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFhwWCTQlp4
Trailer to the movie about Georg Bjarnfreðarson

Former PM Geir H. Haarde. No nickname, but the verb haardera ('to do absolutely nothing and hope the problems just go away by themselves').
 
Bjarni Benediktsson - Bjarni Ben or Bjarni Vafningur Ben after the dubious affairs surrounding the company Vafningur and the lending caroussel going on around it before the crash.
 
Davíð Oddsson - Hádegismórinn ("The Hádegis Monster", since Morgunbladid is located at Hádegismóar in Reykjavík. Mórinn = 'ghost or monster'), Doddsson, Dabbi kóngur (Dabbi is little David , but it also means slobby, so its both 'King Davíd' and King Slobby, after his role in the crash)

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson - Sigmundur Dabbi


King David alias Doddson alias The Hádegis Monster  

[politicus]

According to the Icelandic tabloid DV PP chairman Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson didnt get a degree in Oxford, but he did attend Oxford University from 2004 to 2009. According to Icelandic students studying at Oxford in those years he attended Wolfson College. But the people interviewed are positive SDG did not complete a degree from the school, neither a master's nor a doctorate.

So he lied and also, of course, refused to give his approval to DV to get formal confirmation of his educational "experience" from Oxford University.

Wonder how the voters will react to this news...


Wolfson College - "Ziggi Dabbi was here"

But did he graduate?

[politicus]

New poll (finally!) from Fréttablaðið. It was conducted Monday 22/4 and Tuesday
23/4, so the respondents knew about the allegations about SDGs missing Oxford degree, but not all of them knew DV now have proof of it.

The two big centre-right parties are below 50% for the first time in the campaign, but still get 57% of the MPs. LG above 10%, also for the first time. SDA is fairly stable, but gains a point compared to the last poll. None of the small parties look likely to make it.  

PP 25,9% (19)
IP 23,8% (17)
SDA 13,3% (10)
Left Greens 10,4% (7)
Bright Future 8,1% (6)
Pírates 6,3% (4)

Dawn 2,4%
Democracy Watch 2,6%
Households Party 2,5%
Right Greens 2,5%

Rainbow 0,7%
Rural Party 0,1%
Humanists 0,1%
Peoples Front of Iceland 0,0%
Sturla Jonsson 0,0%
Blank 1,3%

Unsure whether the aggressive SDA style is working, I think they lose as much as they gain at the moment. Icelanders like their politicians to be nice and civil, and stuff like Arnassons refusal do discuss the constitution with Democracy Watch (saying he doesnt want to talk about the past!) isnt helping. LG seems to be gaining slowly with a more factual and positive style.

Looking at the wasted votes, there are 5,1% for right wing or centre-right parties, 2,6% for Democracy Watch, which is a mixed bag, and only 3,2% on the left. Still I would say that a collapse of Dawn and some left wingers leaving Democracy Watch is the most likely change in this group. The people voting Household and Right-Green have likely made up their mind to go anti-establishment this time.

[politicus]

Icelanders still don't like the EU according to a new Gallup poll, no surprise there since there hasn't been a "yes" majority at any time in the last 4 years.

No 52,2%
Yes 27,6%
Undecided 20,2%

More than 60% of naysayers are "very negative" towards membership and only 40% of the yes-vote is "very positive". So 11% euro-philes versus 32% euro-phobes. Tough odds to beat.

Also a majority to finish the membership negotiations in this one:

Finish the negotiations 52,7%
Stop the negotiations 30,7 %
Undecided 16,5%

Only IP and Right Green voters have a majority for an immediate stop to the talks with Bruxelles.

IP confirms that they still want to close EU's representation in Reykjavik if they win! PP and the rest of the parties don't.

[politicus]

New poll from the Institute of Social Sciences at Háskóla Íslands (University of Iceland). Its conducted 17.-23. Apríl, so mixed regarding the voters knowledge about this SDG degree-thing, but it confirms that LG is increasing and PP declining. IP and PP are about equal.
The difference between 38,1% to the leftists and centrists and 49,2% to IP + PP is still big, but its decreasing. 

IP 24,8%
PP 24,4%
SDA 13,6%
Left Greens 10,8%
Bright Future 7,3%
Pirates 6,4%

Dawn 3.2%
Right Greens 2.8%
Democracy Watch 2.6%
Households Party 1.4%

Others (incl. blanks) 2.7%

[politicus]

First poll with a majority of answers after DVs exposure. Its conducted 22. to 25. April 2013.

PP is going down, the question now is how much.

IP 26.7%
PP 22.4%

So 49,1% combined vs. 39,8% to leftist and centrists - 9,3% difference, the smallest in a long time. 11,1% wasted votes.

SDA 13.0%
Left Greens 11.6%

It will be interesting if LG can pass SDA.

Bright Future 7.7%
Pirates 7.5%  

Democracy Watch 3.5%  
Dawn 2.9%
Households Party 1.8%
Right Greens 1.3%  
Sturla Jonsson 0.8% - first poll with any support for our truckie

Rainbow 0.5 %
Peoples Front of Iceland  0.1%  
Rural Party 0.2%
Humanist Party 0,0%  

Support for the government (incl. BF) stands at 32.3%. Up from 26.4% in the previous survey. But still much too low to save them.
  

[politicus]

We are getting a lot of polling, this one is from Fréttablaðið. LG at 11%. They are pretty clearly surging, but this one also has SDA at almost 15% getting the government above 25,8%, the highest in a long time.

IP+PP 48,6%.

Progressive Party 25.6% (19)
IP 23,0% (17)

SDA 14.8% (10)
Left Greens 11% ( 8 )
Biright Future 7,7% (5)
Pirates 6.4%  (4)

[politicus]

No clear winner of the important party leader debate last night on Stöð 2, Icelands big private TV channel. But a couple of losers. Especially Bright Future needed a better showing from Steingrimursson to turn the tide,

Observers tend to say Katrin Jakobsdottir did best, but according to DVs poll on facebook she finished third. SDG proved he is a better debater than Benediktsson, but still the difference isnt that big.

DV poll:

"Who do you think did best?"

Arni Pall Arnason (SDA) 24,3
SDG (PP) 22,1
Katrin Jakobsdottir (LG) 20,1
Bjarni Benediktsson (IP) 14,3
Birgitta Jonsdottir (Pirates) 10,8
Gudmundur Stengrimsson (Bright Future) 8,4

[politicus]

Looking back at the polls preceding the 2009 election, it looks like while SDA and IP had been polled quite on the spot, Left-Green had been quite overpolled and Progressive underpolled.

Do you think there is a rule to it, or was it circumstantial ?

Looking at the current trend, it seems that Bright Future voters are coming back to Left-Green by two or three points.

PP isn't likely to be underpolled this time with the enormous extra support. Last time it was likely  rurals and rural born deciding at the last moment to vote for them despite all the mess that made the difference between the polls and the result.
LG are down to real leftists now, last time there where many centre-right voters tired of the scandals who considered "clean" LG, but then changed their mind in the voting booth and went back to IP/PP after all - kind of a "better the devil you know" effect.

I doubt there is that much interchange between BF and LG. BFs loss is more likely to be going to SDA  (fellow Euro positive and centrist, but with a sharper profile).
I think LG will get voters back who considered Dawn and the Pirates or simply staying at home and some SDA turned off by Arnasons style. There is likely quite a bit of movement back and forth between LG and SDA.

One interesting aspect is that experts say this is likely to be the first election since 1983 where there isn't enough levelling seats to secure proportionality. PP will simply get too many regular seat in the rural constituencies this time. This should be at the expense of IP and the Pirates. The Pirates may not even get in at 6% (but then I think they will get a little more). But this means PP will be the biggest party even if IP passes them with a few percentage points (maybe even 3,5-4).

I hope we get at least one poll where the entire sample is after DVs exposure of SDGs degree-lie on 23-4. It would be nice to see if it changed anything.
This idea with polling over 2-4 days blurs the picture. I like snapshots at a particular moment in the campaign.

[politicus]

Earlier in this thread I wrote that HBK would be the most likely person to clean up IP, I still think she is simply because she is such a strong politician, but..

One of her backers is the lawyer Kjartan Gunnarsson, who was manager of IP for 26 years (1980-2006) and is still on the party's central committee. He is also former Director of Landsbanki and Chairman of VIS.
He is a great supporter and friend of David Oddsson and was known as the party fixer back in the days.
This guy hates Benediktsson, because Benediktsson decided to return huge contributions to IP from Landsbanki that Kjartansson had made shortly before it became illegal to do so in connection with the government's takeover of the bank. Kjartansson took this as a personal insult implying he had done something immoral.
 
Kjartansson is rumoured as the one paying for the polls showing HBK to be much more popular than BB. Whether she is somehow in alliance with him is unknown.

All this just shows that IP is seriously fycked up and that the Oddsson crowd is still highly influential.

Moderates in the party has even tried to drag former chairman Thorstein Pallsson (65) out of retirement and get him to take over. He headed IP until 1991, when Oddsson ousted him, and is seen as the last unblemished Conservative leader in Iceland. He is highly critical of the party's right wing turn and euro-scepticism, which he thinks blocks its possibility to work with other parties (read SDA). So far Pallsson has refused to challenge the leadership, and as an EU-supporter is unlikely to get elected, even if he changed his mind. But the fact that a 65 year old retired guy who hasn't been in politics for two decades is the anti-Oddsson wings best hope shows how messed up this party really is.

[politicus]

One more poll from Frettabladid, but it still includes answers from the 22th, so it doesnt really help us determine the state of the race. Nevertheless:

Progressive Party 25.4% (19)
Independence Party 22.9 percent (17)

Joint: 48.3 percent and 36 MPs

SDA 14.7 percent (10)
Left Greens 10.9 percent  ( 8 )
Bright Future 7.6 percent (5)
Pirates  6.3 percent (4)

The seats in this are allocated  proportionally, and PP would likely get more IRL.

[politicus]

New poll from Gallup but still "impure" since its conducted 18.-25. It has a 60% respondence rate, which is lower than most of the others.

Independence Party 27,9%
Progressive Party 24.7%
SDA 14.6%
Left Greens 10%
Bright Future 6.6%
Pirates 6.1% 
Democracy Watch 2.8% 
Right Greens 2, 6%
Dawn 2,6%
Households Party 1.3%
 
It has some regional data:
 
The Independence Party is strongest in the suburban-exurban Southwest with 33% and has their second best area in the rural South constituency (no numbers given). Vestmanna Islands are generally a stronghold for them + they have some strong candidates down there, so thats probably why its polling better than Reykjavik.

Progressives has the largest proportion of supporters in the South with 35% followed by 34% of voters in both the Northwest and Northeast constituencies. So they are basically at the same level all over rural Iceland. Historically NE was clearly stronger, so thats remarkable. 34% is actually lower than I would have expected in the NE.
 
SDA is strongest in the SW with 16-17% support.

Left Greens are strongest in middle class Reykjavík North with 17% support.

Bright Future and Pirates are strongest in Reykjavik, about equal in South and North Reykjavik.
(no numbers given). I would have expected them to be stronger in the more middle class North, but the class difference between the two is probably not that big this year (they change the boundaries every election to make them roughly equal in population).

[politicus]

The 11 leaders from the parties with candidates in all six constituencies debated in RUV earlier this evening in the final election debate. Same three winners as last time according to DVs readers, but this time with Jakobsdottir ahead of SDG and Arnason. With Benediktsson again finishing far behind the other "Big 4" leaders.
 
DV poll:

"Who do you think did best?"

Katrin Jakobsdottir (LG) 20,0%
Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson (PP) 18,0%
Arni Pall Arnason (SDA) 17,3%


Bjarni Benediktsson (IP) 9,2%
Thorvaldur Gylfason (Democracy Watch) 7,8%
Gudmundur Stengrimsson (Bright Future) 7,2%

The leaders from the Household Party, Dawn and the Pirates all finished between 4,9-5,8%.

Only 1% thought Bjarni Hardarson from Rainbow was best and a measly 2% saw Gudmundur Franklin Jonsson from the Right Greens winning the debate. This poor showing likely dooms the Right Greens, since it was their last chance to get the 2,5-3% extra they need. Commentators generally agree that Gylfason did weill, and his relatively strong performance may give Democracy Watch a chance, if they were already at around 3-3,5%, which is not unlikely.

[politicus]

We don't seem to be getting any polls today, so no polls exclusively from the second half of the week, which means that the effect of this degree thing is not properly measured and Benediktssons defeat in the debates is also not figured in.

Benediktsson did much worse than the other Big 4 leaders in the debates, so I think that cost them a few points. Democracy Watch did good, and many voters care about the constitution, so I think they will be the best of the small parties, while Right Greens leader were terrible, but perhaps their voters don't care about this? Still I think they missed their chance.

This is really a guess, because of the lack of good polling, but my bid is:

IP 24
PP 24
SDA 15
LG 12
BF 7
Pirates 6

DW 4
Dawn 2,5
Households Party 2,5
RG 1.5
Blanks and micro parties 1,5

Its based on trends and good debate performances by Jakobsdottir, SDG and Arnason.

PP could be much worse if voters care about the degree-lie. But I don't think so, since it probably would have shown more clearly in the multi-day polls we got.

Also 23.000 has already voted before election day, thats probably 10% of the votes and twice as many as last time, this will likely benefit Bright Future that were doing better earlier on, but possibly also PP. So thats another uncertainty.

[politicus]

It looks like a low participation rate. In the big SW constituency only 16.7% had voted at 13:00 down from 20.1% in 2009. Dunno who this is going to benefit, but I doubt its good news for the government.

[politicus]

11 PM, its 10PM GMT and 9PM local time.

[politicus]

BBC says 22.00 GMT.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22320282

Iceland is GMT without DST so they close at 9PM in Iceland.

[politicus]

At 6PM 53.4% had in the Southwest, down from 59.1% in 2009, so it still looks like a lower participation rate, but the difference is not as great as in the morning.

[politicus]

At the moment it looks like participation will be lower than in 2009 in 5 out of 6 constituencies, but higher in NE which is really good news for PP.

There has been seriously bad weather in Iceland and the small rural roads are not going to be open in the evening (its Saturday and there is no one to keep them open).

Because of the weather it will take extra time to collect the rural votes and the final result is likely to be delayed until Sunday afternoon. But there should be a prognosis right after the polls close, because the small isolated places doesn't affect the overall result much.

14 procent have voted before election day, that's 34 051 - 4 457of which are from abroad. The high number of mailed in votes also complicates the counting since they have to be distributed to the relevant constituencies and checked for double voting.

[politicus]

According to Swedish journalist Anders Svensson, who lives in Iceland and has a blog about the country, the polls close at 10PM Icelandic time and 12PM Swedish time (ie. Central European time), this means 11PM GMT with DST (UK time).

So now I don't know I was certain BBC was right, but maybe the BBC simply forgot that Iceland doesn't have DST?

Confirmed. BBC is wrong.

First prognosis at 11.15PM GMT with DST - 00.15 CET with DST. Final result should be announced around seven hours later, the bad weather has hit Iceland later than expected, so that should speed things up.

[politicus]

Icelands national TV station RUV has this exit poll.

IP 27,9
PP 24,5
BF 6,7
SDA 14,6
LG 10,0
Pirates 5,5

Democracy Watch 2,8
Right Greens 2,6
Dawn 2,6
Households Party 1,3%
Rainbow 0,5

So only six parties, as expected, and the Pirates may be cheated out of representation with a strong PP showing in rural constituencies, this effect will probably also make PP as big as IP with this difference.

[politicus]

With 9,5% counted its:
 
IP 26,1%
PP 24,5%
SDA 12,4%
LG 9,5%
BF 7,0%
Pirates 6,4%
Dawn 4,6%
Households Party 4,5%
Democracy Watch 2,8%
Right Greens 1,5%
 

[politicus]

Its interesting that both Dawn and the Households Party are so close to the threshold in these first numbers, but it is probably a skewed sample.

83,3% voted, so the fear of a very low turnout was unfounded.

[politicus]

politicus thanks for all the work you've done in this thread!

What's the source you're using to see the electoral returns?

The newspaper Morgunbladid. The numbers are at 15,6% at the moment.

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/

The exit poll is at www.ruv.is