2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory strength is too high in the St. John's area for the NDP to actually win any seats, I think. Although they will probably win that seat in Burin now- but that's on the strength of the candidate, as the NDP didn't do well there federally.

[DL]

Tory strength is too high in the St. John's area for the NDP to actually win any seats, I think.

We have no way of knowing that. The NDP took 29% in NL federally but in St. John's they took over 50% of the vote while they were in the low teens in the rest of the province. In the absence of any regional breakdown its hard to say - but its not unreasonable that the NDP could be at 40% in SJ and in the high teens elswhere. At 40% or more you are looking at a scenario where SJ splits PC and NDP in terms of seats.

But at this stage its all speculation. Its hard to use the 2007 NL election results as much of a yard stick since in 2007 it was before Williams ABC campaign and it was before the two federal St. John's seats went from being supersafe Tory seats to going NDP by a landslide.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory strength is too high in the St. John's area for the NDP to actually win any seats, I think.

We have no way of knowing that. The NDP took 29% in NL federally but in St. John's they took over 50% of the vote while they were in the low teens in the rest of the province. In the absence of any regional breakdown its hard to say - but its not unreasonable that the NDP could be at 40% in SJ and in the high teens elswhere. At 40% or more you are looking at a scenario where SJ splits PC and NDP in terms of seats.

But at this stage its all speculation. Its hard to use the 2007 NL election results as much of a yard stick since in 2007 it was before Williams ABC campaign and it was before the two federal St. John's seats went from being supersafe Tory seats to going NDP by a landslide.

The NDP won those two seats on the strength of their candidacies.  Other than Lorraine Michael, who are the star candidates?  With those numbers though, any decent campaign in the St John's area will result in seats. I wish I knew which one there were. Without that information, we can only assume a uniform swing, and that means no higher than 40% in any seat, and therefore no seats.

[DL]

Actually there are several strong high profile candidates running for the NDP in St. John's.

Geoff Gallant in Cape St. Francis is the deputy mayor of Torbay and has a very impressive resume and is talked about as a possible future leader of the party.
Gerry Rogers (who is a woman) in St. John's Centre is an award winning documentary film maker who is very well known locally
George Murphy in St. John's East is a high profile head of a group fighting for fair gas prices.
Dale Kirby in St. JOhn's North is the NL NDP President and is a Professor at MUN and seems to be one of the main NDP spokespeople during the campaign.
...and if you go on the NL NDP website read about Keith Dunne in St. John's South and Chris Pickard in St. John's West you'll see that they both are lifelong activists in their ridings and that Pickard is a sports commentator on TV and radio.

Neither Jack Harris nor Ryan Cleary were seen as such "giants" until they got elected to Parliament. Harris had barely been able to win provincially and never expanded the NL NDP beyond his one riding and Cleary was seen by some to be a bit of a joke and a loose cannon who had a past as a Newfoundland separatist.

The thing is that now all of a sudden you have two NDP MPs in SJ each of whom has an office and employs staff and you have something like 60% of people in SJ who are now used to putting their "x" beside an NDP candidate on a ballot. The media is aso treating the NDP as a major player in NL in a way that it never did before. So I think the NL NDP i going to surprise a lot of people on Oct. 11

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I still wonder how their campaigns are going.

I just made another projection for NL: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/newfoundland-and-labrador-2011-election.html

The NDP is getting closer in St. John's, and may pick up some of those seats you suggested. But I am really when it comes to what to predict. If we could only get some regional numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You may end up with an almost random distribution of seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile, in Manitoba, something resembling a poll: http://www.cjob.com/News/Local/Story.aspx?ID=1544432

Looks pretty decent for the NDP. We in the pundit community are wondering what's up with Manitoba. Too focused on the Jets I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The government's rebound there seems to be fairly impressive, given how deep the hole was just a few months ago.

[mileslunn]

St. John's has historically been a Tory stronghold, but more your old PC Red Tory types rather than neo-conservatives thus with the provincial PCs being more like the PCs were federally pre-merger rather than the present Conservatives, I would suspect St. John's will probably stay mostly PC.  I think it only went NDP federally as people have disliked the Liberals since the Joey Smallwood era so when they turned on the Tories federally, the NDP was really the only alternative left.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

[Holmes]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/breakingnews/manitoba-tories-hold-slight-lead-in-new-environics-opinion-poll-130576928.html

?

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/breakingnews/manitoba-tories-hold-slight-lead-in-new-environics-opinion-poll-130576928.html

?

There are 2 polls.
This is the one I was referring to: http://www.cjob.com/News/Local/Story.aspx?ID=1545343

[Marokai Backbeat]

I've been meaning to ask, so forgive me as an outsider; Why is the NDP government in Manitoba struggling? Is it just because they've been in power for so long, or has something in particular happened in the last year to cause their dip? Purely from an outsider's perspective, they seemed to have governed well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been meaning to ask, so forgive me as an outsider; Why is the NDP government in Manitoba struggling? Is it just because they've been in power for so long, or has something in particular happened in the last year to cause their dip? Purely from an outsider's perspective, they seemed to have governed well.

They aren't unpopular, the race is close, and as I said, they are way ahead in the other poll. It does come down to fact that the party has been in power forever, it seems.  However, the economy is doing well in the province, and things are looking up. The Winnipeg Jets coming back were a big sign of this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the fact that they've bounced back so well (they were down by double digits earlier this year) seems to hint that previous poor polling numbers were mostly down to fatigue.

[lilTommy]

Also, this is the first election where the NDP is being led by Greg Selinger who is no Gary Doer... BUT appears that Manitobans are warming up to him, hes seen as very compentent and trusted with the purse. 301 actually predicted they would win 39 seats! I think that might be optimistic but if things turn out the way that first poll predicts i don't see why the NDP wont pick up Winnipeg seats... Tyndall Park (fight with the Liberals) and River East (was incredibly close last time). But i think the NDP missed an opportunity to refresh itself by running more newer faces (ok, this still peeves me off that they nominated Jim Malloway in Elmwood but i digress).
I believe the bounce back up started after the flood, as Selinger was seen to have managed that disaster very well. And then the Jets came back and well that just more or less sealed it.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is running a full slate in NL. I think that's the first time ever for that. The Liberals are also running a full slate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/NL/1279609329/ID=13182117

The Liberals themselves admit they are focused on a rural-focused strategy. They also had a HELL of a time trying to find candidates to fill all the St. John's ridings, with one, debating quitting on twitter, during the debate.

I am going to build an "ElectoMatic" for Newfoundland based on the assumption that the Liberals are going to lose an entire half of their vote in St. John's to the NDP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Translation: they're just trying to survive.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to my numbers, the NDP will win 5:
Signal Hill (solid)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia (solid)
Labrador West (solid)

and the Liberals, 4:
Cartwright (solid)
Burgeo (solid)
The Isles of Notre Dame (solid)
Port de Grave (solid)

The NDP is an additional threat in 4:
Conception Bay
St. John's North
St. John's South
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

The Liberals are an additional threat in 4:
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains

The Liberals, however, are a "closer threat" than the NDP in these ridings, and the NDP may not be able to win all the ones I've outlined if they are not as strong as some polls suggest they are.

PC 31-39-41
NDP 3-5-9
Lib 4-4-8

Worst-Projected-Best


Conclusion:
sh*t. The Liberals are so weak elsewhere, but so strong in so few ridings, they could beat the NDP in seat count even if the NDP managed double the popular vote of the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two Liberal incumbents are retiring though...

[Smid]

The NDP is an additional threat in 4:
Conception Bay
St. John's North
St. John's South
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

By Conception Bay, do you mean Conception Bay East - Bell Island, Conception Bay South, or both? I assume not both, since that would be five seats, rather than four.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Uh, I forgot. The one the NDP did better in, compared to the PC's, last time.

[Smid]

Conception Bay East - Bell Island:
Tory: 3,991 (71.79%)
Liberal: 999 (17.97%)
NDP: 569 (10.24%)

Conception Bay South:
Tory: 4,670 (79.38%)
Liberal: 953 (16.20%)
NDP: 260 (4.42%)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes, so East.