Wisconsin Megathread

[henster]

I hope Mahlon Mitchell or Susan Hepp step up and run either would be intriguing candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Dems get a decent candidate, this will be a major battleground in 2020.

[henster]

I hope Dems get a decent candidate, this will be a major battleground in 2020.

It makes no sense not to, they are putting Baldwin at risk with a weak Gov nominee.

[Pollster]

Baldwin votes reliably with Elizabeth Warren and is very much in the mold of Russ Feingold. She will likely benefit from being a good fit for the Democratic electorate of 2018, despite not being an ideal fit for the state.

[Koharu]

I know Wisconsin seems to have a pretty awful "bench" of Democrats, but isn't there someone better than Soglin? Even in Madison he isn't as popular as you would expect, and I haven't heard anyone particularly excited about him tossing out the possibility of running for governor.

Honestly, even outside my political beliefs and just as an observer, it would be very frustrating to see Walker win again just because there's no decent competition. I feel like any decent challenge (even from a different Republican in the primaries) would knock him out of the race. He's not that strong of a candidate, but he holds on.

[MasterJedi]

I know Wisconsin seems to have a pretty awful "bench" of Democrats, but isn't there someone better than Soglin? Even in Madison he isn't as popular as you would expect, and I haven't heard anyone particularly excited about him tossing out the possibility of running for governor.

Honestly, even outside my political beliefs and just as an observer, it would be very frustrating to see Walker win again just because there's no decent competition. I feel like any decent challenge (even from a different Republican in the primaries) would knock him out of the race. He's not that strong of a candidate, but he holds on.

Schilling would be the strongest imo but she isn't running. Looking like Vinehout will probably run, she'd be the second strongest. Anyone else that I can think of at this point would be awful.

[MasterJedi]

Wisconsin Assembly working on a call for a constitutional convention for a balanced budget amendment. Scary to think how close it is, if enough states pass it the 1st Amendment is one that will be gone for sure, no matter what they say the reason they're calling it is for.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin Assembly working on a call for a constitutional convention for a balanced budget amendment. Scary to think how close it is, if enough states pass it the 1st Amendment is one that will be gone for sure, no matter what they say the reason they're calling it is for.

Luckily, both Delaware and Maryland have rescinded their prior call.

[Kingpoleon]

Wisconsin Assembly working on a call for a constitutional convention for a balanced budget amendment. Scary to think how close it is, if enough states pass it the 1st Amendment is one that will be gone for sure, no matter what they say the reason they're calling it is for.

It is undeniable that a Constitutional Convention would be an easy way for a dictator to seize power. If you get, say, twenty-six delegates in your inner circle elected, assuming each state elects one delegate, you could easily become an absolute monarch.

[Virginiá]

It is undeniable that a Constitutional Convention would be an easy way for a dictator to seize power. If you get, say, twenty-six delegates in your inner circle elected, assuming each state elects one delegate, you could easily become an absolute monarch.

But 3/4th of the states would have to ratify those amendments. It would take very wide consensus for a dictator to seize power.

[Gass3268]

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[Wiz in Wis]

Soglin would be the Corbyn of the Wisconsin Dems. Old, stale Dem, no new ideas, lives in the past. Loved in Madison but from what I can tell really hasn't done much of anything lately.

Madison's economy is bombing, while the rest of the state is spotty. I think that could be a plus. He's also actually more fiscally responsible than would would assume. Yet I agree, his past would be problematic. Vinehout is the best choice. I still think almost anyone could beat Walker (and he could beat anyone). Trump's approval will play a big part.

It's booming but it still hasn't really produced that many good paying jobs. Epic is a diploma mill that grinds out college graduates as it works them to death and the government is the only other large employer. From what I hear it's hard to find well paying jobs. A lot of graduates try and stay and leave within 5 years for the rest of the country. To be fair it's a state problem, not just the city.

I'm going to disagree here. Madison is actually a pretty easy place to find a good paying job, even aside from Epic. There are a lot of bio-tech and finance firms here. They are building housing everywhere. Aside from Madison, Wisconsin is completely flat in terms of job/population growth.

[Wiz in Wis]

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Wow... that seat just became hella competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

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Yikes, his seat is now gone for Republicans IMO. Not feeling great about the Senate race either, honestly. Looks like WI Dems will get a lucky break for once in 2018, like VA Republicans did in 2009 and 2010. Walker should be very worried about all of this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Dems need WI badly, its a critical state for Dems in 2020.

[Kingpoleon]

It is undeniable that a Constitutional Convention would be an easy way for a dictator to seize power. If you get, say, twenty-six delegates in your inner circle elected, assuming each state elects one delegate, you could easily become an absolute monarch.

But 3/4th of the states would have to ratify those amendments. It would take very wide consensus for a dictator to seize power.

Theoretically, they could suspend that rule.

[LabourJersey]

It is undeniable that a Constitutional Convention would be an easy way for a dictator to seize power. If you get, say, twenty-six delegates in your inner circle elected, assuming each state elects one delegate, you could easily become an absolute monarch.

But 3/4th of the states would have to ratify those amendments. It would take very wide consensus for a dictator to seize power.

Theoretically, they could suspend that rule.

How?

The people on this forum screaming about how "Con Con II" will be the end of the American Experiment need to calm down. There is no way a constitutional amendment could get passed anyway, since you can't get 38 state legislatures to agree on anything anyway

[Young Conservative]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because up until recently, Wisconsin has been a Democratic leaning state.  And to see a GOPer, even if it is Walker, winning 3 times in a row is hard, very hard.  And hopefully, Ryan loses as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course Walker, Hogan and Sununu, aren't as vulnerable as Governor Rauner.  But, if you look at the landscape, its very hard to see Walker winning 3 terms. 

[Dr. Arch]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

Unfortunately? Republicans have been thrashing the state for years at practically all levels. Their only defense is "muh Doyle" even in 2017.

[TJ in Oregon]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

Partisan redistricting Crt fight in WI and PA will influence the outcomes of these elections in the Democrats favor. The GOP has maxed many of its gains.  Don't forget the Trump GOP bill that gets rid of medicaid expansion, is the same bill Walker championed(Expanding Obamacare) in his reelection fight.  Dems have reason to believe they will win in 2018.

[TJ in Oregon]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

Partisan redistricting Crt fight in WI and PA will influence the outcomes of these elections in the Democrats favor. The GOP has maxed many of its gains.  Don't forget the Trump GOP bill that gets rid of medicaid expansion, is the same bill Walker championed(Expanding Obamacare) in his reelection fight.  Dems have reason to believe they will win in 2018.

Oh, I think Tammy Baldwin will win. But the Supreme Court is a non-partisan spring election often done by itself. Its dynamics could be very isolated from the larger context.

[Gass3268]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

Partisan redistricting Crt fight in WI and PA will influence the outcomes of these elections in the Democrats favor. The GOP has maxed many of its gains.  Don't forget the Trump GOP bill that gets rid of medicaid expansion, is the same bill Walker championed(Expanding Obamacare) in his reelection fight.  Dems have reason to believe they will win in 2018.

Oh, I think Tammy Baldwin will win. But the Supreme Court is a non-partisan spring election often done by itself. Its dynamics could be very isolated from the larger context.

I think Dems/lefties missed out greatly by not putting up a challenger in this year's race. The anti-Trump folks were in high gear supporting Evers and they might have been able to push a challenger over the top.