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Fremont was never winning Texas.

Pennsylvania was so desperate to finally elect a President that we puked out the worst possible man for the job and America has collectively decided that we'll never have another one. We voted for the favorite son who went on to become the least favorite son.

But one who had a good CV, perhaps the best in the entire history of presidential elections. Which should be a lesson to those voting purely on credentialism.

[HHS Secretary Nominee Neera Tanden in hot water after prior comments about Republicans and Progressive Democrats get leaked]

HHS Secretary Nominee Neera Tanden in hot water after prior comments about Republicans and Progressive Democrats get leaked

Blitzer: President Clinton's Nominee for HHS has gotten into hot water recently for many comments she has made over the years about republicans , and progressive Democrats which could make it tougher for her to be confirmed . Many believe these comments are also exactly the type of comments needed for Senate Minority  Leader Jeb Bush to find the justification needed to launch a filibuster effort which in turn would make confirmation impossible. So David how big of a deal do you think this is

Gergen : To me it depends greatly on the reaction you see from conservative commentators on Fox News such as Bill O Riley and Sean Hannity as well as talk show radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh because they could put the pressure on republicans to indeed filibuster Mrs. Tanden in which case I think it would happen

Blitzer : Cant Republican leadership defy them like they have in the past

Gergen : Oh absolutely but keep in mind that Republicans are just coming of their worst election defeat in 20 years so the power of republican leadership is at the moment very weak which is why the influence of conservative cables News and talk show hosts likely will be at the strongest . A year from now it probably wouldn’t be which is why those hosts know that if there is any time for them to flex their influence, it is now as they likely won’t have an opportunity like this in quite some time .


President Clinton names Congressman Tim Ryan to head the DNC:



source : https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rep._Tim_Ryan_Congressional_Head_Shot_2010_(cropped_3).jpg#mw-jump-to-license

Copper : The president today announced that she would be appointing representative Tim Ryan of Ohio to head the Democratic National Committee over the next few years . So Paul what do you think of this pick

Begala: I think its a fantastic choice as Congressman Ryan really is someone who is a rising star , a really strong fighter for working class Americans and is someone who being from Ohio can help bring a perspective to the Democratic Party that many bellwether voters feel. Now whether he is successful or not only time will tell as he will follow in the footsteps of two successful DNC Chairs in Howard Dean and Kirsten Gillibrand and we have to see if he can build upon their work.

 

That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

In 2020 vs 2016, Wisconsin trended right, PA stayed stagnant, and Michigan trended left although Trump triaged the latter. Proper investment and it probably stays close to even.

That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

The conventional wisdom right now is that it will move towards Biden but there isn't really much evidence to say that it can't shift towards Trump again.

People mention the midterm US House races but I feel like that is flawed logic. In 2022 there were 435 different races in 435 different districts. Each and every candidate was different, and the GOP just happened to nominate better candidates in more safe districts and weaker ones in the key battlegrounds. However, this year Trump vs Biden is going to be the exact same matchup in every state, in every county, in every city, and every precinct.

Not to mention that in 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump. I'm not saying that it will happen again but its a seriously underrated possibility. In 2016 it was 3.1, in 2020 it was 3.9, if it creeps up even just a little bit to 4.2 or so, that would spell very bad news to Biden's campaign. If it goes a full 0.8% towards Trump again it would be requiring a Biden win of 4.7% to break even. (Swing isn't universal but still worth noting)

I talked about the midterm theory above, but a more valid but still doubtful one is the NY-CA one. In it, Trump makes massive gains in NY FL and CA and not the swing states which lowers the threshold.  The biggest flaw with this one though is it leaves out Texas. NY and Florida's population is only 2/3 the size of the giants California and Texas. If Trump is improving in Texas by a significant amount that means he must be making gains in DFW and Houston which would have to be replicating in Phoenix and Atlanta. I think this theory makes more sense, but I don't know why people rule out the EC advantage shifting towards Trump.

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?

About two thirds I'd assume. They are ground zero of his crossover appeal.

US PLACES TRAVELING

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.