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No, I'm actually feeling pretty confident right now but also at peace that no matter who wins, life goes on. Doesn't mean I won't be upset if Trump wins, but I'll just channel that energy into pushing back on his agenda and electing Dems up and down the ballot.

Worst-case scenario and Biden ends up losing, you're in a good position in 2026 and 2028, something your two incumbent senators probably will like.

Kuenssberg eughh. First time I won't be watching BBC. I will tune in to see the exit poll (because it's tradition) and then I shall switch to Sky.

I believe the exit poll will be, as it has been for some years now, a joint BBC/ITV/Sky thing. So, the exit poll will be same in BBC, ITV and Sky news.

Laki has an R nut map that hasn't even happened since 2014

Rs are gonna win some races, but cracking the blue wall they haven't done since 2016 and certainly not an R nut map since 2014 a long time ago

They seem quite sure of a Biden victory, nervous, no. Overconfident? Possibly...

Most red avatars are in the first stage of the 5 stages of grief as Lakigigar had said, They continue to deny that trump is winning and that the polls are fake which is quite funny since if a blue-avatar said that the polls were fake back in 2020 they would have dogpiled onto them and mocked them So yeah we just going to see the reds move though the five stages of grief if trump continue to lead in the polls.

Yeah, personally I think the election's in Trump's favor, however not by the 4-8 points some of the Sunbelt polls are at. The election's not going to be a Biden win if Biden ignores the polling but Trump isn't guaranteed a win...

I agree with that for the most part. We've also seen that in 2020 while Biden was predicted to win in many states, he eventually did win most of them but not by the margin that was expected. A similar thing might be happening here,

however I feel like the Sun Belt states for some reason at this point are shifting quite a bit to the right and might be moving into Lean R territory. Lean R still means that Biden can win them if the situation is the same on election day (Michigan & Wisconsin 2016 were also Lean D and Trump won them), but I think something more specific is happening in Sun Belt, which might be related to demographics (minorities, urban population) and maybe its institutionally more conservative character (like on abortion), but also that there is more economic hardship there supposedly. I don't think it's impossible that AZ, NV, GA and NC all don't end up being (very) close at all.

But it's the Rust Belt trio that will likely decide the election and my feeling says it's toss-up/tilt R at this point. I suspect the polls will improve a little for Biden simply because there's more room to grow. All Trump needs is 1 state but Biden might end up winning them all three and deny Trump which seems to be the most realistic scenario for a Biden win at this point. A classic blue wall holds electoral victory. Only issue is that compared to 2020 any move in the direction of Trump in WI & PA likely leads to Biden losing here, since there isn't much room to fall anymore, these were already quite close wins.

And I suspect that if Trump ends up winning those Sun Belt states that the chances are high that at least 1 of the 3 of Rust Belt trio also falls.

Olawakandi should send an application.

The latest episode had me on the edge of my seat.  Certainly the best of the season so far.

Why do you think I criticize the forum so much...

The forum isn't always right, and this is one of those things. It's also highly contested and definitely not unanimous here, there's a lot of opposition to the majority opinion here.

The door is open and you can always search for greener pastures. Nobody holds you against your will here and if you think that we aren't enlightened enough to accept your edicts then I'm sure you'll find somewhere else an audience more susceptible to your message.

To be fair, at any other place where i'm a part off, this in fact the case, including most of the discord servers i'm on (or remain on, since i left the Atlas-related ones). And the "audience" doesn't need my my message to already agree with me.

I liked this forum for discussing politics, had good relations with most users esp pre 7/10. And to be fair i think more & more users are starting to realize that i was always right here - for the most part, especially. While I should have condemned Hamas' attack stronger initially - the only mistake I made - I have been right from the beginning. But I also see this conflict not as a new conflict but as a continuation of the ongoing conflict for decades, since I don't see 7/10 as the technical start of the conflict just like many Ukrainians also consider 2014 as the start of the war and not 2022. And everyone with some brains knew that the - rally around the flag effect - was going to lead to this, and most forum users fell for it. This was written in the stars, i warned for this on day 1.

I don't know how often people need to learn that rally around the flag is dangerous, many claim that you wouldn't fall for it with hindsight, but you keep falling for it. At the end, i think a lot of forum users just are highly militarist and imperialist in terms of mindset.

Highlight of the day was a BBC vox pop in Richmond (The Yorkshire one) asking pensioners what they thought about the new quadruple lock- all said they liked it, although with the addition that they wouldn't have been supporting Labour anyway.

I rather think this is the point - the Conservative campaign strategy seems to be shaping up to be:

A) Hold the right flank against Reform.
B) Make sure that unenthusiastic Tory voters who are tempted to abstain show up to vote.

The policies that they’ve released very much seem to be geared towards these two things. I think they’ve pretty much conceded that they’re not going to win back the ‘swing voters’ who voted Conservative in 2019 and 2017, therefore the campaign will have to be about maxing out their share of the 30-odd percent of the electorate who won’t vote Labour under any circumstances (which now seems to skew older than it did historically). Not an election winning strategy (but I think a ‘wet’ campaign that would be applauded by the likes of Andy Street would be far worse), but one that maximises the chances of the Tories ‘only’ losing by a 1997-style margin.

Agreed that Tory goal is not get 1993 PCed.
But their campaign resembles 1993 PC.

In Belgium the glass isn't bulletproof but its often there

It's just a mock thing, like we don't use our real names but Dave Leip has them. They have access to our real profiles

How does Dave Leip vote?