Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[King of Kensington]

I don't think Woodbridge is as Liberal as you think.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed. Italians love Doug Ford.

Yes.  And Woodbridge has voted Conservative before.  Voting for Ford's PCs is not a radical break from traditional partisan loyalties (i.e. it's not like York South-Weston going Conservative). It's also filled with people with money who are not (in Fordian terms) "elites."

Woodbridge has a tendency to swing hard toward the winner.  You can't simply extrapolate from the last provincial election and conclude that it's basically another St. Paul's.

[King of Kensington]

Blue Liberal is probably a good description for Woodbridge. 

But yeah I don't find the explanations for why it'll be the one Liberal holdout in 905 (Italians! Del Duca! Seat projector!) very convincing. 

[King of Kensington]

My feeling about the popular vote is something like:  37-38% each for the PCs and NDP, and around 22% for the Liberals.

I'm still trying to figure out what a map will look like though.

[King of Kensington]

I don't have the guts to put out my exact seat number yet, but I'll try answering.


Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- Most likely PC, but could be a random Liberal holdout
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- Definitely PC
Kingston and the Islands- Most likely NDP, small possibility of Liberal holdout
Peterborough- Most likely PC, could go NDP if things go well

905 Belt
Ajax- Most likely PC, could go NDP if things go well
Oshawa- Most likely NDP hold, but could it could be a "Sault Ste. Marie '11" (federal)
Vaughan-Woodbridge- I think the PCs are likely to take this though people are very adamant about the idea of Del Duca being the 1 Liberal holdout in 905
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- Definitely NDP
Brampton-North- Most likely NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- Most likely PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- Most likely PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- Either PC or NDP
Scarborough Agincourt- Most likely PC
Scarborough Southwest- Most likely NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Could be a Liberal holdout (rich riding where Ford may underperform) but PCs could end up taking it
Willowdale- Probably PC
York Centre- Probably PC
Beaches-East York- Most likely NDP
Davenport- Definitely NDP
Toronto-centre - Likely Liberal holdout, but good chance of NDP taking it too
University-Rosedale- Most likely NDP, unless the Avenue Rd. wall kills them
Etobicoke North- Most likely Ford, small chance of NDP upset
Etobicoke Lakeshore-  PC, Liberals and NDP will split the vote
Etobicoke Center- Most likely PC, small chance of iit being a Liberal holdout
York South Weston- Most likely NDP
Humber River Black Creek- Most likely NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- Most likely PC, but may surprise with Ford's underperformance with elite voters
St Catherine’s- Most likely PC.  Jim Bradley's residual popularlity makes NDP pickup less likely
Brantford-Brant- PC or NDP - really hard to say
Guelph- I have no idea.
Waterloo- Definitely NDP
London North-Centre- Most likely NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- Definitely NDP
Sault Ste Marie- Likely PC hold, but strong possibility of NDP pickup

[King of Kensington]

Ford looks very well positioned for a "perfect storm" in Toronto:  Basically the bulk of Ford Nation and the Harper 2011 seats.

[King of Kensington]

Actually their strongest riding is St. Paul, where they are +10. At 15%, they could lose every riding.

At "+10" according to what source? 

[King of Kensington]

My prediction:

PCs  38%  65 seats
NDP  36%  51 seats
Liberals  19%  7 seats
Greens  5%  1 seat

I'll post all the ridings tonight.

[King of Kensington]

So here goes:

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal of course!
Ottawa West-Nepean - NDP

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - PC
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - NDP
Etobicoke North - The Ford Party
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - NDP
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - PC
Durham - NDP
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville - PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - PC
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC
Whitby - PC
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - PC
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - PC
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

[King of Kensington]

So here goes:
.......
Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
.......

No big deal, but I think you are missing Chatham Kent Leamington. 

Added (it's PC).

[King of Kensington]

I made a slight error in my seat tally - should be 64 PC, 52 NDP, 7 Liberal, 1 Green.

[King of Kensington]

My turn. Thanks to King of Kensington as I copied, pasted, and made a few changes from his post...

I think this is very, very good.

York Region is exactly the kind of place where Liberal voters from 2014 would have jumped ship long ago.  They see Kathleen Wynne as having turned the OLP into a clone of the NDP.  Very Ford-friendly demos too in York Region.

Not sure why you have the Libs are so close in Ajax though.  But I think you're quite right to pick up on the 905 difference from the federal election - the Conservatives were much stronger in York Region (where they got over 40% almost everywhere in spite of the Trudeau wave) than in Peel and Ajax-Pickering.

Mississauga Centre might be the kind of DVE-esque -style three way race that the Liberals slip through in.  The Liberals will not be winning any two-way PC/OLP races in the 905 - they're just too weak.  

I would love to see Cho defeated, but I don't see it happening.

[King of Kensington]

Hatman, I really like the "footnotes" and thought put into the ridings that goes beyond "the data says so."

But whoa...outer TO is going to be brutal.

[King of Kensington]

Etobicoke-Lakeshore - the riding poll by Mainstreet (much as i am sceptical of their riding polling) suggested the NDP was very close toi the PCs here and this area actually has an NDP history pre-1995

Willowdale - again, Ford did badly here and this area has changed dramatically and is now largely high rise apartment buildings and is very multi-cultural. This is North York City Centre and is increasingly becoming almost a northern version of Spadina-Fort York  

I made an "unorthodox" call for Lakeshore, though wearing a "sober political analysis" hat would probably say PC.  

I agree about Willowdale being a surpriser - it's very "urban" and very different from the Mel Lastman days of the "city" of North York.  It's the kind of seat I think that could surprise if the NDP were polling past 40% and into majority territory.  In addition to being a weak spot for Ford and a pretty strong area for Olivia Chow in 2014, I would also add that it's represented right now by the left-liberal John Filion on council.  In fact, if Zimmer had retired and Filion had run for the Liberals his chances would probably be a good deal better than Shelley Carroll's.

[King of Kensington]

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell/Orleans - Not much attention has been given to the Francophone vote. I don<t see any reason why they would be Ford-inclined. Furthermore in 2011, the NDP did not even come in second in GPR, despite being next to Vaudreuil and Argenteuil ; in short, I cannot think of anything that would the ONDP do well with Franco-Ontarians in this region. Remember, GPR is 59% Francophone!

Yeah, hopefully GPR and Orleans are leaks in the PC boat.

[King of Kensington]

St. Paul's = Vancouver-Point Grey?

[King of Kensington]

Whitby and Burlington seem like mirror images of each other on the eastern and western edges of the GTA.

[King of Kensington]

Well, let's hope it's a leak in the PC boat.

[King of Kensington]

My most-off predictions were Kenora (forgot that Greg Rickford was running and the NDP candidate was an idiot) and I guess Brampton South.  Don't feel bad about my "unorthodox" calls for Etobicoke Lakeshore and Ottawa West-Nepean.  Was overly optimistic about the NDP's chances in Scarborough but Rouge Park was actually very close (and I figured that Cho would win easily and the PCs would get a big win in Agincourt, while correctly calling Guildwood).