National Tracking Poll Thread

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Not bad, considering many in that list were supposed to be more favourable for Obama.

Knowing Rasmussen, they probably polled 70% North-Carolinians and 30% everyone else or something.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

On 7 days

"nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night"

Don't panic, democrats

Y'know, I think they can figure that out for themselves, which accounts for the distinct lack of panic.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.

It's Bandit.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

Not yesterday, although the increments are pretty small so it's hard to tell.
If you mouse-over the graph, you'll see.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Thank you, krazen, for once again demonstrating your complete lack of an understanding of politics.

More will not be necessary; we all get it by now.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.

Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

It comes down to OHIO. 

Oh, good.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 

How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.

Okay, well where are these posts? 

Do I need an ophthalmologist or do you and Polnut need to visit a polygrapher? 

Registered Democrat 96% 3% 1% 235
Registered Undeclared 80% 11% 9% 295
Registered Republican 90% 4% 6% 207



Lol, junk. This poll does not reflect the war on whites.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

He could just be up big in 2 or 3 states, NC and FL. 

Math doesn't work that way. The 11 states tracked are CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.
If the average is Romney +6, and the average of all the states except NC and FL are a tossup (optimistic for Romney), then Romney would have to be leading by double digits in NC and FL.

Truth of the matter is: either Scotty is pulling numbers out of his ass on this poll, or on the North Carolina one. (or both)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Yeah I have never really been able to understand why PPP's state numbers don't agree with their national numbers, if Romney is +1 nationally he certainly isn't tied in NC or -5 in VA. Rasmussen seems to be closer to what I'd expect.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just an observation. It should be interesting to see what happens when PPP expands their polling to more states this week, I think they said they were going to do 20 different states.

Nah, Rasmussen's swing states tracker is at the same level as its last North Carolina poll. Exactly the same thing.