Cardy is a competent leader, but according to the polls he is still relatively unknown and does not run ahead of the party in popularity. This was actually the first time in his life that he had run for public office. He is not (at least not yet) the Jack Layton of New Brunswick...he is more comparable to Alexa MacDonough in the early 1980s - competent, still unknown to 95% of the population etc...Let's also keep in mind that this byelection was called very very fast - literally within a week of the seat becoming vacant. The number of NDP members in Rothesay could literally be counted on one hand and a campaign had to be built from scratch - the PC and Libs on the other hand have long, long histories of being competitive there and have organizational machines that totally dwarf anything the NDP can put in place on such short notice.
Oh wow, I didn't know all that, but now that I do, it really seems as if he would have done a lot better if he had had more time. I'm not sure if there's a statistic out there about how often elections are won by first time candidates, but it can't be too high a number. His name is out there now, and whatever the next provincial election or by-election brings, he'll probably be the first NDP MLA elected in quite a few years.
On a side note, I'd like to point out what an awesome post that was by Hatman on his blog. That's my boyfriend, everybody, and he makes me so proud!
