2018 Ontario election

[mileslunn]

While still 300 days, it should be an interesting year ahead.  I think the PC's have a strong edge and lots going for them, but Patrick Brown is still an unknown and it remains to be seen how he will perform on the campaign trail while Wynne is a fighter.  If an election were held today I think you would probably have the PC's get around 70 seats, Liberals 30 seats, and NDP around 20 seats but in terms of ranges I see anything from as low as 40 seats if the mess up for the PCs to as high as 90 seats if they outperform and have strong splits.  For Liberals I cannot see them holding the 70 seats they would have won, but a strong campaign and major PC screwup could allow them to get around 60 seats while if things go badly they could fall into the single digits.  NDP have fewer opportunities than the PCs for pickups, but fewer seats vulnerable than the Liberals nonetheless I could see them falling to the low teens if is a right vs. left and the Liberals take the left wing votes while as high as 50 seats if they manage to win.  Probably the best way to predict if the polls don't change is use the 2011 federal election in Ontario as I suspect the voting pattern would fall somewhere along that line.

[mileslunn]

To keep this active, I thought I would give general thoughts by region and then after that give what I think each riding leans while updating them periodically when polling averages change.

416 - Toronto

This is a Liberal stronghold yet their lock on this seems to be weakening and although they may very well win the majority of seats here, they need a big lead over the PCs if they realistically want to win provincially.  That may happen, but they have work to do.  The PCs just being competitive in 416 is great news for them and interestingly enough in 2011 Harper only got 31% in the 416 while most polls put the Ontario PCs a bit above that so in places like Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough there is definitely the potential for a major PC breakthrough if they maintain their numbers.  The NDP doesn't seem to so far be capitalizing much on the Liberals' misfortune and with Wynne also running on an NDP like platform that may hurt them.  It seems the only real separating policy is the sale of Hydro One where the OLP are taking a more PC like approach than NDP or Liberal.  While high electricity prices are a big reason for low Liberal numbers, much of that started long before the sale of Hydro One shares so not sure how much blame they will get on this even if the sale was very unpopular.  Still the NDP if they play their cards right have potential for gains but so far hasn't materialized.

905 belt

The PCs in pretty much every poll are leading here which is good news for them.  The real question assuming the poll numbers hold (which we shouldn't assume) is do they sweep it or just win the majority of 905 ridings.  Outer 905 ones like Milton, Burlington, and Newmarket-Aurora are low hanging fruits so if the PCs cannot win those they are in big trouble and I suspect unless they shoot themselves in the foot again (which they may very well) they will take those.  The inner 905 ones like Markham, Mississauga, and Brampton is more where things get interesting as even though the PCs have a slight edge here I still think the Liberals with a slight uptick in the polls could hold those.  The NDP asides from Oshawa and Brampton East don't seem to be much of a factor and no guarantee they will even hold these.  If Singh as opposed to Howarth was NDP leader I could easily see many Brampton or Mississauga ridings falling into play.

Hamilton-Niagara

Liberals have less concentrated support than the other parties so in a good election they dominate these areas, but in a bad election they get wiped out.  PCs should hold the rural portions, while Niagara Falls, St. Catherines, Suburban Hamilton, and maybe even along the Welland Canal are areas to watch.  For the NDP it is the opposite, Central Hamilton will definitely go for them, other urban areas are strong potentials while rural portions are probably off limits

Central Ontario

This should be a PC sweep and if the Liberals are even close in a few ridings forget about winning any, they will win provincewide.  NDP has never been a factor here.

Southwestern Ontario

PCs should sweep the rural ridings so it's really the urban one needs to focus on.  Brantford-Brant certainly could flip their way, in the Kitchener area the suburban ones probably but not certainly will while the central ones are more competitive.  London will depend heavily on vote splits as PCs are strong enough there they can win on strong vote splits, but not enough to win if they aren't there.  Windsor and Guelph likely are off limits and in the riding of Essex the local NDP candidate is popular enough to prevent a PC win even if they could win with a generic candidate.  Liberals are very unpopular here so suspect the focus will be on a few individual ridings.  Guelph they have a decent chance and perhaps Kitchener Centre and maybe London North Centre but beyond those three unless they have a serious uptick in the polls don't see them winning elsewhere.  NDP should easily hold their Windsor area ones and has potential in the London area ones and even a few in the Kitchener area as well as Brantford-Brant and the rural Southwestern ones between London and Windsor (Sarnia-Lambton and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are winneable, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and Elgin-Middlesex-London are not).  Still despite the potential for an NDP breakthrough here it doesn't seem to be happening and the types of policies that would help them in Southwestern Ontario would greatly turn off their base in the 416 and many blame Howarth's populist platform to appeal to this region for costing them their 416 ridings.  In the 416 most of their potential supporters are NDP-Liberal swing ones whereas in this region unlike others you do have a fair number of NDP-Tory swing voters sort of akin to your Sanders-Trump switchers in the Midwest or UKIP-Labour voters in the Industrial north of England and I don't think the party is particularly interested in appealing to these types.  So smart money is the PCs will win the majority here, but still potential for the NDP to do well while Liberals will fight to hold what they can.

Northern Ontario

This is the NDP's strength and should hold what they have and maybe pick up a few.  The Liberals are pretty disliked here but may hold a few seats, but if they do it will be due to the local candidate not support of the party.  The PCs are strong on the southern edges but weak beyond that so asides from the ridings they already hold doubt they will make big gains.  Basically how well Harper did in 2011 is probably their ceiling and he only made it as far due to the unpopularity of the gun registry which the Ontario PCs don't have.

Eastern Ontario

Outside Ottawa and Kingston should go mostly PC.  True the Liberals did well in the areas west of Kingston last time but usually they need to be well ahead in the polls to beat the PCs here even being tied of a few points ahead won't work.  Suburban Ottawa as usual should be a close battle with the outer suburbs likely going PC but inner suburbs may stay Liberal.  NDP is largely a non-factor here, Ottawa Centre is probably their best bet, but Ottawa-Vanier, Kingston & the Islands, and Peterborough-Kawartha are long shot possibilities but I could only see them flipping those if they win over 40 seats provincially which doesn't seem in the cards at the moment.

[mileslunn]

Below are my riding analysis.  Note these are based on both polls, past voting patterns, and general trends.  I will update them as things change, which they almost certainly will.  I generally ignore riding polls as I find unlike provincewide polls their track record is pretty bad (see Surrey-Fleetwood one in BC by Mainstreet which showed Peter Fassbender winning by 10 points when he lost by 15).  Solid means barring something totally unexpected I expect the party listed to win.  Likely means the party listed has a strong edge but could change if there is a strong shift in polls.  Lean means the party listed has a slight edge but still far from certain.  Toss up means I think it could go either way

National Capital Region

Carleton - Solid PC
Kanata-Carleton - Likely PC (Big risk is does Jack MacLaren get enough votes to split the right, my thoughts is he won't get over 10%)
Nepean - Likely PC
Ottawa West-Nepean - Toss- up Liberal/PC
Ottawa Centre - Lean Liberal
Ottawa South - Likely Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Solid Liberal
Orleans - Toss-up (Liberal/PC)

Eastern Ontario

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - Lean PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - Solid PC
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes - Solid PC
Kingston & the Islands - Likely Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - Solid PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Solid PC
Hastings-Lennox & Addington - Solid PC
Bay of Quinte - Likely PC

Central Ontario

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Likely PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - Lean PC
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Barrie-Oro-Springwater - Solid PC
Barrie-Innisfil - Solid PC
York-Simcoe - Solid PC
Simcoe-Grey - Solid PC
Dufferin-Caledon - Solid PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - Solid PC

Durham and York

Durham - Likely PC
Oshawa - Toss up (NDP/PC battle)
Whitby - Solid PC
Ajax - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Pickering-Uxrbridge - Lean PC
Markham-Thornhill - Lean Liberal
Markham-Unionville - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Thornhill - Solid PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Richmond Hill - Toss up
Markham-Stouffville - Lean PC
Vaughan-King - Lean PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Likely PC
Newmarket-Aurora - Likely PC

Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville

Brampton East - Toss up (NDP, Liberal, and PC all have shots)
Brampton South - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Brampton Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Brampton West - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Brampton North - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Mississauga-Malton - Lean Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Mississauga Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Mississauga-Lakeshore - Lean Liberal
Mississauga-Erin Mills - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Mississauga-Streetsville - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Oakville - Lean PC
Oakville North-Burlington - Likely PC

Scarborough

Scarborough-Agincourt - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Scarborough Centre - Likely Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood - Likely Liberal
Scarborough North - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Scarborough Southwest - Likely Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge Park - Toss up (three way toss up)

North York and North Toronto

Don Valley East - Likely Liberal
Don Valley West - Solid Liberal
Don Valley North - Lean Liberal
Willowdale - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Eglinton-Lawrence - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
York Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC)

Toronto and East York

Davenport - Lean NDP
Fort York-Spadina - Lean Liberal
Toronto Centre - Likely Liberal
University-Rosedale - Toss up (Liberal/NDP)
Toronto-Danforth - Likely NDP
Beaches-East York - Lean NDP
Toronto-St. Paul's - Solid Liberal

Etobicoke and York

Parkdale-High Park - Likely NDP
York South-Weston - Toss up (NDP/Liberal)
Humber River-Black Creek - Toss up (NDP/Liberal)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Lean Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - Toss up (PC/Liberal)
Etobicoke North - Likely Liberal

Hamilton, Burlington, and Niagara

Burlington - Likely PC
Milton - Likely PC
Flamborough-Glanbrook - Likely PC
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - Likely Liberal
Hamilton Centre - Solid NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - Solid NDP
Hamilton Mountain - Solid NDP
Niagara West - Solid PC
St. Catherines - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Niagara Centre - Likely NDP
Niagara Falls - Toss up - (PC/NDP)

Midwestern Ontario

Brant-Brantford - Lean PC
Guelph - Likely Liberal
Wellington-Halton Hills - Solid PC
Haldimand-Norfolk - Solid PC
Kitchener-Conestoga - Likely PC
Cambridge - Likely PC
Kitchener South-Hespeler - Likely PC
Kitchener Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC)
Waterloo - Toss up (three way race)
Perth-Wellington - Solid PC
Huron-Bruce - Solid PC
Oxford - Solid PC

Southwestern Ontario

London-Fanshawe - Solid NDP
London North Centre - Toss up (Three way race)
London West - Toss up (PC/NDP)
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - Solid PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - Solid PC
Sarnia-Lambton - Likely PC
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - Likely PC
Essex - Solid NDP
Windsor West - Solid NDP
Windsor-Tecumseh - Solid NDP

Northern Ontario

Kiiwetinong - Likely NDP
Mushkegowuk - Likely NDP
Timmins - Solid NDP
Kenora-Rainy River - Likely NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Likely Liberal
Thunder Bay-Rainy River - Lean Liberal
Sudbury - Likely NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - Solid NDP
Algoma-Manitoulin - Solid NDP
Sault Ste. Marie - Toss up (NDP/PC)
Nipissing - Solid PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - Solid PC

Totals

Solid PC - 26 seats
Solid + Likely PC - 42 seats
Solid + Likely + Lean PC - 49 seats
If PCs win all toss ups - 79 seats (so PC's need to win 14 of the 30 marked toss up to clinch majority)
Potential PCs (this includes leans of others I think they have a shot in) - 84 seats
PC Ceiling - 94 seats

Solid Liberal - 3 seats
Solid + Likely Liberal - 14 seats
Solid + Likely + Lean Liberal - 22 seats
If Liberals win all toss ups - 50 seats (so enough for a minority but shy of a majority)
Potential Liberals - 59 seats - so still a bit short
Liberal Ceiling - 78 seats

Solid NDP - 10 seats
Solid + Likely NDP - 17 seats
Solid + Likely + Lean NDP - 19 seats
If NDP wins all toss ups - 29 seats - so possible opposition but not government
Potential NDP - 32 seats
NDP Ceiling - 44 seats - so even that would be tough but not impossible to form government

So in sum PC's have a strong advantage but majority far from certain and still possible to not win most seats.  Liberals are definitely the underdog and if things go badly could fall to third place and even lose official party status.  But if things go right a minority is still quite realistic, while a majority is a long-shot.  For the NDP forming official opposition is definitely possible and unlike the Liberals no risk of losing official party status.  But a majority is out of reach and even winning a plurality is a very long shot.

[mileslunn]

Sort of similar to mine with a few differences.  Notice you show Kathleen Wynne being in potentially a bit of trouble.  While not unprecedented do you actually think she could lose her seat?  I believe the last sitting premier to lose their seat was David Peterson.

[mileslunn]

Is there a blank map available for Ontario as I was thinking of using that for predictions?  If not I will post one once it is available as I am not sure if they have produced one for the revised ridings.  I could at least for now do Southern Ontario as the boundaries are the same as the federal, but in Northern Ontario they are different.

[mileslunn]

Using Hatman's predictions, here is the map I produced.  Likely are a shade lighter than solid.  For Liberal/PC toss up it is purple, green for NDP/PC toss up, Yellow for NDP/Liberal toss up and white for three way race



PCs only win likely and solid lose everything else - This would be a weak Liberal minority



PCs win all the swings so landslide PC majority of 87 seats.



Ontario Liberals lose all the swings, so PC majority, NDP opposition and Liberals barely retaining official party status of 8 seats.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa Centre should be orange in that last map

Fixed, good catch.

[mileslunn]

Brad Duguid isn't running again so at least for my predictions I would move Scarborough Centre from likely Liberal to Liberal/PC toss up.  Normally it is a fairly safe Liberal riding, but with their lousy poll numbers could be vulnerable never mind Duguid was quite popular personally so that will probably hurt the party somewhat.

[mileslunn]

Using a simulator from too close to call http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html I plugged in the averages of the polls since January 1, 2017 and got the following map.  The numbers would be PC 40.5%, OLP 29.2% NDP 23.1% GRN 5.2%.  Note these are using the federal results so just a rough estimate not exact as I realize some local ones will swing differently and the North off courses uses different boundaries so I just made a best guess from there.  Note some due to local circumstances are clearly wrong like I am pretty close to certain Vic Fidelli will hold Nipissing and I expect Brampton East to stay NDP if Jagmeet Singh runs, although if he doesn't it's hard to say.  In the case of Nipissing because the boundaries are slightly different and only a two point spread I kept that one PC as the north is more judgement calls unlike the South.  With Jagmeet Singh though I think he will win the federal NDP thus not run again, but will change to NDP if he doesn't win it.

Seat wise it is PC 76 seats NDP 25 seats, and Libs 22 seats

[mileslunn]

Here is a September map averaging all the polls for the month and I also included the one Forum from August as it was the only poll in August.  Averages are PC 40.2%, OLP 29.4%, NDP 23.6% GRN 4.6%.  PC 76 seats, NDP 25 seats, Libs 23 seats so close race for opposition despite Liberal lead in numbers.  Note this is using the following swingometer off federal results so just a rough estimate not exact while for the North I made my own judgement calls since the boundaries are different than federal. 

[mileslunn]

I don't see any possible scenario in which the Liberals win another mandate. Kathleen Wynne has destroyed all credibility the party once had in Ontario.

Generally concur, but you never know although if she did win it would be one of the biggest upsets ever.  I think though a PC win is by far the most likely.  Had the Liberals got a new leader they would have had a better chance although still probably would have lost but Wynne seems to have a low approval rating.  Heck even the federal Liberals privately might be hoping for her to lose as I suspect her unpopularity is hurting them in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

As we get closer, on a monthly basis, I thought I would add some maps of various projections.  

The first one is from too close to call http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html (Note this is a simulator so a few individual ridings seem a bit weird but general picture still reasonable)



Here is from Calculated Politics http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ so more individualized although some of the projections like PCs winning Ottawa Centre and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek while Liberals winning Oakville seem truly bizarre, but overall numbers are reasonable even if some projections are questionable.



This is from Barry Kay's projections from Wilfred Laurier University and those too close to call are blank http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/ which has a map,

This is from http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php which is individualized, but lots of blanks as right now 37 are still listed as too close to call, but will get filled in as we get closer and some called may even be changed as polls change.



This is QC125 which seems to be using a simulator on a uniform swing with some minor adjustments.  Actually asides from the Lispop it seems the most realistic of them all as asides from maybe Timmins going PC all of them wins seem high probable no weird ones like some of the others.  Only caveat is they have Etobicoke North going Liberal and I think if Doug Ford weren't leader that would be correct but with him as leader I think the PCs will win it. http://ontario.qc125.com/