German Elections & Politics

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Andrea Nahles will become chairwoman of the SPD.

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Head of the chancellery: Peter Altmaier

Peter Altmeier was the Governor of Rhineland-Palatinate from 1947 to 1969.

You’re right of course 😂

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Andrea Nahles will become chairwoman of the SPD.

Scholz will become vice chancellor

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Economy: Thomas de Maizière Peter Altmaier

Apparently I was a bit too quick posting that cabinet list 😅

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So who will be the Foreign Minister now? Gabriel again? Or perhaps ... JENS SPAHN

(I know that won't happen. One can dream tho)

The SPD in Lower Saxony is pushing hard for Gabriel.

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I expected to have numbers by now but party leadership seems to be able to keep a lid on any info. But apparently there are a lot of relaxed people at the Willy-Brandt-Haus so the result is most likely for another grand coalition.

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Apparently it is a clear majority for GroKo. Almost as much as last time.

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The SPD ministers are apparently:

Foreign: Heiko Maas
Finances: Olaf Scholz
Environment: Svenja Schulze
Justice: Matthias Miersch
Labour: Katharina Barley
Family: Franziska Giffey

Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.

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Die Linke could become the strongest party in any state election for the first time:
In Berlin, they would receive 20% right now

So better than they achieved in 2016 and despite being in government? Their support dropped like a stone the last time, I wonder what the difference is now.

Their leader Klaus Lederer is quite popular and Michael Mueller is extremely boring

[RedPrometheus]

The SPD ministers are apparently:

Foreign: Heiko Maas
Finances: Olaf Scholz
Environment: Svenja Schulze
Justice: Matthias Miersch
Labour: Katharina Barley
Family: Franziska Giffey

Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.

I was absolutely flabbergasted when I heard the news. In what extent is Maas qualified for the Foreign Office? Why don't Barley and Giffey switch offices? Why did Hendricks get kicked out?

I am quite amazed too. I have no idea so far why Maas was choosen for foreign minister. Giffey is to inexperienced to become labour minister which is one of the most important ministries. And I know for a fact that Hendricks wanted to stay on but I believe she doesn't have enough of a power base in NRW. And she is from the rightwing of the party which is seen as having recieved enough posts already.

[RedPrometheus]

The SPD ministers are apparently:

Foreign: Heiko Maas
Finances: Olaf Scholz
Environment: Svenja Schulze
Justice: Matthias Miersch
Labour: Katharina Barley
Family: Franziska Giffey

Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.

Hubertus Heil is to become Labor Minister.

And Barley Justice.

That makes more sense imo. Heil is vital for Stephan Weil's political support in Lower Saxony which Miersch isn't. And Heil needed Sigmar out of the way because both are from the SPD district of Brunswick.

Still can't understand why Maas became foreign minister though.

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Seehofer will apparently hand in his resignation.

It hasn't been confirmed yet

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New poll from Bavaria, CSU headed for electoral disaster (for their standards):

CSU: 38%
SPD: 13%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 5%
Left: 4%
Free Voters: 9%
AfD: 12%
Others: 3%

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayerntrend-103.html

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The consulting group pollytix did a poll for the SPD Bremen:

CDU: 24%
SPD: 28%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 10%
Linke: 14%
AfD: 8%
Others: 2%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bremen.htm

I know that they did some good work in Lower Saxony but I'm not all that impressed with their work on the federal level so I would take this poll with a significant grain of salt.

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I think the polls are underestimating the Greens. There is clear momentum on their side and I think that the SPD will land below 10% for sure in the end and the CSU might land below 30%.

If both members of Berlin's "grand" coalition lose more than 30% combined it would be quite amazing. And the Greens could overtake the SPD in Hessia too.

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I had to have a very stiff drink earlier when I saw the numbers

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Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

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@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

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Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?
[/quote]

It's apparently bad. But I expected that

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Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

[RedPrometheus]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

Do you really think this?
A) None of the pollsters expicitly ask for them
B) According to pollsters, "Other" parties obtain 5-6 %Points
C) These numbers of the "others" factored(according to the experience" to the real result are about 8 %
D) For a proud bavarian patriot, the CSU disqualified themselves completely despite Mr Seehofers attempts of appeasing them
E) There is no real alternative as the so-called pseudo "Alternative for Germany" does not Appeal to bavarian patriots, neither the "Freie Waehler" who are already displayed they are anyting else but a CSU Version 2.5

A) I'm not sure about the methodology so I can't answer that
B) But that's also other parties
C) I'm not sure where you get that from
D) That might be true
E) That also might be true

But nevertheless: I have no indication that the Bayernpartei will be over the threshold. But if you're right I will always read what you have to write about Bavarian politics

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The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

That's right which does not contradict post. This preliminary prognosis is made of the data collected at 12 pm. Yet these numbers usually are skewed towards the CSU as These are the voters which have just left the catholic mass with a priest not shy of eluding what chaos(the magical word) will come above all those sinners who even think of voting for another Party then the CSU :-)

That's true of course but I hope that the pollsters accord for that factor But what I see so far doesn't really show that.

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Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

Almost as if entering that grand coalition was a bad idea. Who would've thunk.

I was among the third of the SPD members who voted against. Don't blame me.

I voted in favor in 2013, though.

I voted against it both times

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So when do the exit polls come out again?

The public ones in 50 minutes.

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I hope and pray Merkel pulls a Schröder and announces fresh elections. With a new CDU leader though.

That will never happen.