Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'll concede my point since you have heard it straight from the source via the candidate and campaign manager. The field work is definitely centered on turning out Democratic voters. I'm excited to see what their GOTV roll-out is like. I'm not privy to all that information yet. So we all shall see!

[Rookie Yinzer]

New Abrams video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzIgulrOuio

Her campaign is doing a faith outreach summits this week throughout South and Central Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams campaign launched a radio spot in the Valdosta media market narrated by attorney Benjamin Crump (he represented Trayvon Martin’s family dieing the Zimmerman trial). The ad highlights Kemp’s voter suppression tactics and how he tried to charge the Quitman 10 with felonies for registering black citizens to vote (they were exonerated).

Read about the Quitman 10 here:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/av4nzb/the-quitman-10-2-and-voter-suppression-in-modern-georgia-715

Also absentee ballots dropped today! Voting is going on now. Abrams sent out 1 million absentee applications that were filled out already. All the voter has to do is sign and put their birth date. VBM is being pushed heavily in South Georgia.

ETA: What is the easiest way to make a county map that I can post here? I want to post my prediction for an Abrams victory.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nevermind. I got it. This is non-Atlas colors btw.

ETA: Seminole was supposed to be for Kemp



Abrams has been practically living in rural Georgia these past few weeks. I think she will attempt to flip Wilkes, Screven, Meriwether, Peach, Taylor, Marion, Webster, Early, Baker, Mitchell, Decatur, and Brooks counties. Some of these should be easy flips because they were Obama counties that may revert back with increased black participation. Ben Hill, Telfair, and McIntosh will be the suprises of the night where she ekes out wins with less than 50 votes. Turner will be close and could flip Abrams. I left it in Kemp's column.

Of course she will ratchet up turnout in the Metro ATL area. Distancing herself from Kemp as much as she can in Rockdale, Henry, Newton, and Douglas. Holding Kemp under 15 in Clayton, under 20 in DeKalb, and under 35 in Fulton.

Using her huge canvass operation to win Cobb by 4-5 points and Gwinnett by 8-10 points. Both of these counties each have a substantial number of paid canvassers who spend 10 hours a day knocking doors for Stacey.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

Cool! And the VBM applications were specifically sent to low propensity voters who skip midterms, so I don't think a significant increase in vote by mail in Abrams-friendly territory would be cannibalizing the early in person voting or Election Day voting at all.

ETA: DGA added Georgia to their #UnrigtheMap program, meaning GA will join 8 other states that the DGA plans on investing $40 million in to elect Democratic governors who will block gerrymandering in their respective states.

https://democraticgovernors.org/news/dga-adds-georgia-to-unrig-the-map-program-announces-major-redistricting-investment/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Joe Biden will be stumping with our next Governor next Thursday.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/biden-campaign-with-abrams-georgia-next-week/UVfgdDcA4axUApqrb66J7I/

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

How come? It totally makes sense why it would happen. In 2016, the Clinton campaign had us pushing people to do early voting hard (at least in my area), so I know for sure I got a lot of first-time early voters to go, or at least so they said. It stands to reason that people who may have voted on election day vote early once or twice, and then they start to build a habit of it. This becomes compounded when a campaign's strategy is built around pushing early voting.

I don't buy that it's a thing that has an impact on election results because pretty much all early voters are/were either:
a) going to vote on election day anyway if it weren't for early voting, which means they're not harming the candidate because they would've voted for said candidate
b) unable to vote on election day, but if they could, they would've vote for the candidate. This means they're actually helping the candidate by voting early
c) wouldn't be voting at all if it weren't for early voting, which means the candidate is being helped.

The point of my initial statement is that a lot of the people doing mail-ins will be voters who don't participate in midterms so if we end up hearing of sharp increases in absentees it is more likely they were not going to vote in the first place and it's not regular voters shifting away from early in person or election day...

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did Deal ever release any internals in 2014? Hoping that if we never get any from Kemp that’s a sign he’s in deep sh-t.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There will be more third party voting in Florida. Gillum will win by more but get less of the vote.

Florida:
Gillum 50
DeSantis 44
3rd Party 6

Georgia:
Abrams 51
Kemp 47
3rd Party 2

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp just announced a $600 million plan to raise all teacher's pay by $5,000 if he's elected.



Stacey must be up big in his internals. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1045860386598264832



This excites me because I know Abrams planned from the very beginning to launch the biggest VBM and in-person early voting initiative in the state's history. Let's keep it going!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

I just voted for our next Governor and the entire Democratic slate today. Felt damn good!

You voted for Brian Kemp? I'm kind of surprised.

I’d rather run barefoot through a field of rusty nails.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1046260657585295360

So what I do know is the absentee push was micro-targeted to people who sit out midterms, so at this moment I believe this surge in AA participation are from those who probably wouldn't have voted if not prompted by the absentee app being sent to their home followed by the canvass attempts by the state party to make sure these apps and ballots are turned in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How does the absentee push work? Do you mail/deliver absentee request forms to voters who tend to be unreliable in midterms, and they fill it out and send it to the state, who then sends them a ballot when its time? If so, do you guys provide free postage and stuff too?

Yes. Her campaign sent out over 1 million absentee applications with the postage prepaid. They are working in conjunction with the state party to canvass voters and ask if they have received it and if they intend on voting by mail. Once the applicant turns it in and receives their ballot, the Abrams campaign can track them and continue to canvass them until they mail their ballot in or they go vote early in person. If they still haven’t gotten their ballot in by November 2 and didn’t early vote, they will be canvassed during the GOTV period (Saturday-Election Day).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

But it's not sticking. The only people that care are hardcore conservative partisans who would chew glass before voting for Abrams. She's leading Kemp by 33 points among independents after Deal won them by 23 just four years ago.

Instead of worrying about Stacey's donations has he finally told Georgians what he will do for the rural hospitals that have closed under Republican one-party rule?

[Rookie Yinzer]

So it's continuing to get less white and more female.

If you had to guess what the margin is among these votes, what do you think it is now?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

Pitiful that people look at their own fellow citizens in outside states like they're foreign agents. Keep it up, people like you are my motivation to vote when otherwise I wouldn't care enough to take the time out of my day.

It’s disgusting how people think they can vilify states like California and New York but then cry foul when they’re called dumb Southerners (unless it’s their God Fuhrer Trump saying it).

*snip*

Here is something very interesting that I can report at the granular level, however. Looking at my county's voter file, I can see who all has voted (along with a plethora of details about them).

Of the 75 people who had voted by mail in Whitfield County (70-26 Trump) as of yesterday, the most recent scoring models suggest that it's a 53/47 electorate. That's a bit of a simplification (the scoring model rates likely 2018 DNC support in terms of percentage likelihood; technically, 53% of the voters have a greater than 50% chance of supporting Democrats), but still unprecedented.

Furthermore, half of the people to vote by mail did not vote in any of the last 3 primaries. Only 1 in 7 of these voters pulled ballots in all of the most 3 recent primaries. Forty percent of them voted in no more than 1 of the past 3 general elections (2012, 2014, 2016).

It's obviously a small sample size, so salt shakers and all, but still very out of the norm for my county.

Intriguing info. It’s still pretty early but I’m loving what I’m seeing so far. 34 more days of hard work!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1047309260215005184

Everyone check this site out:

http://georgiavotes.com/

Honestly pretty incredible (especially the Latino percentage; hopefully they return their ballots!). But if the combined returned/received mail voting electorate in Whitfield County is 61% Democratic, then we can surely and safely assume that the mail electorate statewide is much higher than my initial minimum estimates.

GOP won't see the massive Latino surge coming. Organizers have been on the ground for months. I'm excited to see the dents she makes in Whitfield, Gwinnett, Hall, Cobb, and across South Georgia off the strength of Latinos. I have never seen a statewide campaign so engaged with the community and anxious to get them out to vote.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Going to canvass for Abrams Saturday

YES!! I'm doing door knocking every day of the GOTV period.

ETA: Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Pressley will be stumping for Stacey Abrams at Clayton State University next Tuesday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

2014 non-voters continue to grow!

Meeting AG Eric Holder at a Henry County canvass launch this Sunday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp raised $12 million, Abrams $10.2 million July 1-September 30.

For the final stretch, Kemp has $6.6 million COH, Abrams has $4.9 million

Link

[Rookie Yinzer]

How many of these voters are new voters or non-2014 voters

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http://georgiavotes.com/