Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

My hope is for Democratic turnout to be at 80 percent of the last presidential election, while Republican turnout is at 66 percent of 2016.

That would put Stacey at around 1.501 million voters and Kemp at 1.378 million. It is a herculean task, but the state party is diving deep into its treasure trove of 3 million left-leaning voters, while Abrams has paid staff knocking on 1 million doors of a whole different universe of voters. Her path to victory is clear and the ground work by the DPG and independent activists groups is what will lead us to victory on November 6.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

One way for Abrams to get 80% of 2016 is to have literally any presence whatsoever on the uGA campus. I've seeen farrrr more kemp stuff in just today alone

Why does john barrow have more outreach on campus than abram

I'm going to keep making these annoying posts until I see any signs of life for the abrams campaign on campus

[GeorgiaModerate]

One way for Abrams to get 80% of 2016 is to have literally any presence whatsoever on the uGA campus. I've seeen farrrr more kemp stuff in just today alone

Why does john barrow have more outreach on campus than abram

I'm going to keep making these annoying posts until I see any signs of life for the abrams campaign on campus

I'm still waiting for any kind of outreach too.  Maybe after Labor Day we'll see something.

[Rookie Yinzer]

One way for Abrams to get 80% of 2016 is to have literally any presence whatsoever on the uGA campus. I've seeen farrrr more kemp stuff in just today alone

Why does john barrow have more outreach on campus than abram

I'm going to keep making these annoying posts until I see any signs of life for the abrams campaign on campus

I'm still waiting for any kind of outreach too.  Maybe after Labor Day we'll see something.

The final round of organizers hit the ground Tuesday.

[Adam Griffin]

When Abrams loses the majority by 1 vote after DTC votes for Kemp

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/us/politics/kemp-georgia-abrams.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kemp’s new ad is actually pretty good. I think it’s probablt too late for him to attempt to pivot to the center. Abrams has a two month head start in that area on him

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/us/politics/kemp-georgia-abrams.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kemp’s new ad is actually pretty good. I think it’s probablt too late for him to attempt to pivot to the center. Abrams has a two month head start in that area on him

Yeah, it's not a bad ad at all.  What bothers me is that I've now seen it a bunch of times, generally during sports broadcasts, and I haven't seen a single Abrams ad since the primary.  Nor have I gotten a mailer, or a phone call, or an email, or a knock on the door.  Nothing.  

We keep hearing about what a great campaign Abrams is running.  But where is it?  They're clearly not reaching the north suburban voters like me, and according to DTC they're not reaching the UGA campus either.  Yeah, Abrams has my vote regardless, so the outreach isn't really needed in my case.  But what about the other people in my (increasingly diverse and gentrifying) neighborhood?  I'm sure there are potential votes for Abrams there, but they're not going to turn into actual votes without some effort by the campaign.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sure I sound like an Abrams spin doctor at this point but I’ve seen plenty of her ads since the primary. Particularly the one where she explains her debt and the one where she has a big, burly white guy talking about her jobs plan. Television ads do not equal votes.

She does have a massive field operation. There are millions and I mean millions of people in the canvass universe and there are only so many hours in the day. There are 9 whole week’s until the election and I can say Faron experience that me and the volunteers I have are making thousands of calls and knocking hundreds of doors a day. No candidate has ever invested this much money in field. Stacey Evans had plenty of tv spots and lost by 50 points.

I’m also sure PACS and interest groups will be bombarding voters with mailers, post cards, and robo calls soon enough.

[QAnonKelly]

Lol y’all, go to briankemp.com

[Adam Griffin]

Lol y’all, go to briankemp.com

Lolololol

[Use Your Illusion]

Hahahaha!! Thtraight Thavage!

[Rookie Yinzer]

While I did say I am not paying attention to polls I would not be upset if whatever comes out tomorrow is favorable to my candidate.

https://twitter.com/SPotterGA/status/1037367977073692672

[Adam Griffin]

Remember that Channel 2 and AJC have unfortunately moved to using university polling (UGA specifically) and that their poll of the Democratic primary in late April was something like 32-15 Abrams. Probably still better than that garbage InsiderAdvantage polling, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SPotterGA/status/1037767974030073857

[QAnonKelly]

They also have Deal at 63% approval

[LimoLiberal]

They also have Deal at 63% approval

Abrams is going to be leading... book it.

[KingSweden]

My prediction: Abrams +3

I’ll say Abrams +2

[Zaybay]

With that kind of Trump approval, I would say Abrams +5

[ON Progressive]

[windjammer]

Too many undecided. Irrelevant

[LimoLiberal]

-9 Trump approval sample and Abrams can't muster a lead...

[henster]

45 is about where nearly every Dem in GA has ended up on ED in the past decade.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This race is a Toss-Up. It will come down to who has the better field operation and GOTV apparatus, and by a mile that will be Stacey Abrams.

It's getting to the point where I can't spill everything I know, but they definitely have a strategic effort planned that will be rolled out over the next few weeks.

[ON Progressive]

Crosstabs of the poll here: https://s3.amazonaws.com/ajc-isabetai/polls/AJC+Election+Poll+Results.pdf

I am rounding with all the numbers, as this poll uses >DECIMALS.

Gender: Kemp leads men 53/39, Abrams leads women 50/39.

Race: Kemp leads whites 65/27, Abrams leads African-Americans 86/4, "Others" (Asians/Latinos/etc) go Abrams 45/34.

Age: Abrams leads <30 voters 45/35, and 30-44 year olds 61/29 (!). 65+ go Kemp 54/39

Party ID: Abrams leads Dems 90/2, Kemp leads Rs 91/4, Indies go Abrams 46/31.

Favourables: Kemp 40/32, Abrams 34/21.

Seems like there's a trend throughout the poll of Abrams leaning groups having more undecideds than Kemp's groups. That is pretty good news I would say.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Harry Enten thinks Abrams could win in a run-off. This seems to make sense abstractly (drop-off from a Presidential election to a runoff is not the same as drop-off from a midterm to a runoff). But does it make sense in practice, my dear Gawgans?

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1037832535286456320

You must be logged in to read this quote.