Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I doubt a public university would allow her to hold an event on campus as a candidate unless she was paying for it like Trump did when he went to Valdosta State.

She has had multiple events in Athens either way.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1030533467262648320



Brian Kemp is a steaming pile of sh-t. Why anyone thinks he will be good for all Georgians is beyond me. He can’t keep up with Stacey in terms of policies or intellect so he just shuts down polling precincts where she will get damn near 100% of the vote.

To the DPG’s credit they have a voter protection group assembled should anything occur at polling places once voting starts. I just hope the pieces haven’t already been put in place to steal this election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1030533467262648320



Brian Kemp is a steaming pile of sh-t. Why anyone thinks he will be good for all Georgians is beyond me. He can’t keep up with Stacey in terms of policies or intellect so he just shuts down polling precincts where she will get damn near 100% of the vote.

To the DPG’s credit they have a voter protection group assembled should anything occur at polling places once voting starts. I just hope the pieces haven’t already been put in place to steal this election.

Sweet Jesus.... What was the source of that bit of literature?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/08/georgia-voter-suppression-brian-kemps-bid-for-governor-depends-on-erasing-the-black-vote-its-working.html

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is Stacey being single an issue for her? I know some black voters can be pretty traditional.

Did you miss when she won 76 percent of the vote in a primary electorate that was 60 percent black?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I just had a beautiful dream that a new AJC poll had Abrams up 48-44 and she was winning 12% of self-identified Conservatives. Ugh.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I just had a beautiful dream that a new AJC poll had Abrams up 48-44 and she was winning 12% of self-identified Conservatives. Ugh.

Dreaming about polls is perhaps a sign that you need a break from politics.

I’m literally doing politics for a living for the next 2.5 months. LOL. I don’t know how or why anyone can do this year after year. Once I get Stacey elected this is it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams drew huge crowds down in Ben Hill, Echols, and Lowndes counties today. When I hear her speak she is really hitting her stride her focus is squarely on that Governor’s mansion.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can Stacey Abrams get over 70% of the vote in Athens-Clarke County, GA?

I don't see her getting more than 68%. Kemp is from Athens so I don't think he's going to do any worse than Trump did.

Can Stacey Abrams get over 70% of the vote in Athens-Clarke County, GA?

Honestly, she needs to break 70% in Athens-Clarke, DeKalb, and Fulton to avoid a runoff.

She's probably going to hit 67-69% in Fulton. She will be closer to 80% in DeKalb. That is the heart of her field operation. She has been hitting those low propensity black voters in South DeKalb and naturalized/ESL voters in North DeKalb HARD.

[Rookie Yinzer]

[Rookie Yinzer]

When I just read the headline, I knew this was a Bronz post.

Maybe because she has better policies to benefit everyone?

Are you sure about that? She's Atlanta-centric. What will she do for rural voters? What will Kemp or Abrams do for Georgia?

Atlanta-centric? That is a blatant lie and honestly a bunch of horse sh**t.

[Rookie Yinzer]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

White Christian hipsters who brag about how diverse their living situations are?

There’s probably plenty of those types in Atlanta.

Correct. I deal with them daily.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Had so much fun at the DPG State Convention today!

The highlight was the crowd chanting "Lock Him Up!" when Hank Johnson gave his speech and talked about Cohen naming Trump as a co-conspirator. He said "Something big is about to go down and his name is Donald Trump".

Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux gave good speeches. So did Josh McCall, but my favorite was Francys Johnson. He is a natural with the mic and an audience to rile up.

Charlie Bailey is much more personable than I thought he was.

Of course Stacey Abrams brought down the house, but so did Sarah Riggs Amico. God I hope Abrams's potential coattails can carry Amico over the finish line. I have already designated Amico to be elected Governor after Abrams serves her two terms.

Abrams debuted this clip at the convention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6O8fMzlHMK8&feature=youtu.be

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more polls on Kemp vs. Abrams.

There should be polls daily from now on til Nov. 6

I wonder if Abrams' appeal to Atlanta suburban voters could cause Barry Loudermilk to lose. (Vinings area)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Loudermilk

Abrams' suburban appeal could cost: Loudermilk, Handel, Woodall, and Austin Scott their jobs this election day.

That would be a boom to GA Democrats.

Anyway, none of the House incumbents are going to lose.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Where do you see Bourdeaux's chances of an upset?  (i.e. what percentage chance)

Like 15 percent. It will be a 7-9 point loss for her but the Forsyth County part of the district is what will save Woodall at the end of the day. Hopefully we get a fair Gwinnett County based district after Stacey Abrams wins.

In 2016, Woodall won the Gwinnett County portion of the district 55-45, and the Forsyth portion 78-22. I think Bourdeaux will outright win the Gwinnett part by <2 points, but will still lose Forsyth by 30.

If the vote share between the two counties is Gwinnett 76/Forsyth 24 and Bourdeaux gets 51 percent in Gwinnett and 35 in Forsyth it gets her to 46 percent. I'm being generous with the Forsyth number so she either needs Gwinnett to make up more of the electorate or she's going to have to run FAR ahead of Generic D in Forsyth County.

ETA: Or maybe she'll do better in Gwinnett than I think. Those Sugarloaf Republicans might find her message palatable and Abrams should help bringing more AAPI and Spanish-speaking voters to the polls.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams’s advantage will never be shown in the polls. I’m ignoring them myself.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams’s advantage will never be shown in the polls. I’m ignoring them myself.

This strikes me as unsound

The voters she is going after are not the kind that are polled or that respond to polls. Obsessing over every little movement in the polls does me no good.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Democratic Party is doing mass canvassing this Labor Day weekend among ESL (English as Second Language) voters this weekend.

Democrats in the past would have just written them off as useless.

[Rookie Yinzer]

My hope is for Democratic turnout to be at 80 percent of the last presidential election, while Republican turnout is at 66 percent of 2016.

That would put Stacey at around 1.501 million voters and Kemp at 1.378 million. It is a herculean task, but the state party is diving deep into its treasure trove of 3 million left-leaning voters, while Abrams has paid staff knocking on 1 million doors of a whole different universe of voters. Her path to victory is clear and the ground work by the DPG and independent activists groups is what will lead us to victory on November 6.

[Rookie Yinzer]

One way for Abrams to get 80% of 2016 is to have literally any presence whatsoever on the uGA campus. I've seeen farrrr more kemp stuff in just today alone

Why does john barrow have more outreach on campus than abram

I'm going to keep making these annoying posts until I see any signs of life for the abrams campaign on campus

I'm still waiting for any kind of outreach too.  Maybe after Labor Day we'll see something.

The final round of organizers hit the ground Tuesday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sure I sound like an Abrams spin doctor at this point but I’ve seen plenty of her ads since the primary. Particularly the one where she explains her debt and the one where she has a big, burly white guy talking about her jobs plan. Television ads do not equal votes.

She does have a massive field operation. There are millions and I mean millions of people in the canvass universe and there are only so many hours in the day. There are 9 whole week’s until the election and I can say Faron experience that me and the volunteers I have are making thousands of calls and knocking hundreds of doors a day. No candidate has ever invested this much money in field. Stacey Evans had plenty of tv spots and lost by 50 points.

I’m also sure PACS and interest groups will be bombarding voters with mailers, post cards, and robo calls soon enough.

[Rookie Yinzer]

While I did say I am not paying attention to polls I would not be upset if whatever comes out tomorrow is favorable to my candidate.

https://twitter.com/SPotterGA/status/1037367977073692672

[Rookie Yinzer]

This race is a Toss-Up. It will come down to who has the better field operation and GOTV apparatus, and by a mile that will be Stacey Abrams.

It's getting to the point where I can't spill everything I know, but they definitely have a strategic effort planned that will be rolled out over the next few weeks.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Harry Enten thinks Abrams could win in a run-off. This seems to make sense abstractly (drop-off from a Presidential election to a runoff is not the same as drop-off from a midterm to a runoff). But does it make sense in practice, my dear Gawgans?

I agree. First of all, black civic participation in Georgia was abhorrent up until the past decade. Second, in 2008 Obama won a commanding victory and had an enormous amount of seats in the House and the Senate. There was absolutely nothing consequential about electing Jim Martin (who probably would have obstructed Obama anyway) in the minds of voters.

The marquee race will be on the ballot, Democratic and progressive activist groups from all across the country will be squarely focused on Georgia, and she (Abrams) has a strategic field and political team.

Abrams needs to crack 30% with white voters in order to have a shot at winning, which she isn’t doing so far.

No she doesn't.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She is not investing her money in yard signs. She is investing in field. People have been calling voters and knocking doors for months. Things will be ramping up soon. The only thing Kemp yard signs show is that he has money to spend on them.

Cagle had a lot of signs leading up to the run off too. So there's that.

ETA: Gente 4 Abrams have launched their General Election operation. They will be pushing out the vote in the Latinx communities in DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb, Fulton, and Hall counties. Excited to see all these grassroots organizations investing in communities both sides have written off and getting them to the polls themselves.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’ve been on my way to Dahlonega today and have yet to see an Abram’s sign.

You're not going to see many (if any) signs in Deliverance Country because people are literally terrified that their homes, properties and selves will be targeted. When I was putting out signs for Clinton in 2016, I had multiple instances of people yelling "F[INKS] THAT B[INKS]H" out of car windows passing by - and I'm in one of the more friendly and civilized parts of the state. I was pretty much expecting to be hit in the head with a bottle or ran over by some bubba truck driver. I know organizers who insist on carrying guns whenever canvassing or doing visible Democratic work in public in North Georgia. The fact that it's a black woman running will only heighten these fears by the minority and these aggressive behaviors by the majority.

Besides, the Abrams campaign has put the least amount of effort into signs of any campaign - presumably because they understand it's a waste of money. There have been periods where people couldn't even buy their own overpriced signs for $10 through the website. Signs are good for identifying potential hardcore supporters, volunteers and donors (and may be good at giving people reassurance/knowledge of like-minded people at a granular level), but if you're already accomplishing the former via field work, it's pretty unnecessary. I hate the sign game and I hate being nagged about keeping them in supply, but I do admit that for county parties and the like, they provide more benefit than for statewide campaigns with massive resources.

And for those wondering, past precedent/studies suggest that having a 2:1 sign advantage in a particular area can affect the margin by around 1 point in urban areas, 2 points in suburban areas and 3 points in rural areas. It's tangible, but not the most efficient way to achieve those gains.

This! The main reason I am ready for this election to be over is so I can stop being nagged about yard signs.

I don't think yard signs do a whole lot (or we'd have Congressman Ossoff), but I agree that they may at least get the candidate's name out there.  Something I've complained about recently is that Abrams seemed to have gone quiet -- no TV or radio ads, signs, or other outreach that was visible to me.   Kemp has been mostly unopposed with TV ads during the times/stations I watch, although last night I did finally see an Abrams ad on channel 11.

Pretty much from the beginning, Abrams herself has said that this campaign wouldn't be one won or ran based on TV ads, radio spots and so forth. The reason so many areas are getting field organizers and energy pumped into them is because that money isn't being pumped into expensive ATL media market ad buys. There will come a day where both can happen, but a win statewide will be needed before that happens. Much like with the sign stats I posted above, TV and radio spots are essentially a never-ending black hole of resource entrapment for campaigns; as long as you can keep the disadvantage to 2:1 or less, there's arguably no negative impact (or positive impact if you're on the winning side of those odds). Even if you're outside those odds, effective field and abundant enthusiasm can easily overcome deficits created by it.

Furthermore, it seems pretty obvious that the campaign is also pursuing (or at least benefiting from) a stealth approach alongside this; they don't want the extent of their investment to be immediately known or visible to every GOP operative and voter. Based on the universe of voters being targeted, it's not difficult for that to be the case. While I still disagree with the strategy of effectively abandoning persuasion efforts, they are reaching out to large numbers of registered voters.

This! And we have to understand she is going after low propensity Democratic voters. A single mother with two jobs in Colquitt County is not going to take time out of her day to stand in line to vote for someone because she saw a sign or saw her on television.

I do disagree that she is abandoning persuasion efforts. She is banking on issues like Medicaid Expansion, public education, and jobs being things that people of different ideologies can line up behind while also not abandoning progressive views on guns, women's right to choose, and immigration.