Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Former President tack50]

Why not simply keep the coalition with the FPÖ?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FPÖ voters will go en masse to the ÖVP, they could just abstain or even go to the SPÖ!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SPÖ led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SPÖ-Greens-NEOS?

[Former President tack50]

With the Greens sure, but an ÖVP-NEOS coalition I think wouldn't hurt the ÖVP that much, just like CDU-FDP didn't hurt the CDU that much while the endless CDU-SPD coalitions did

[Former President tack50]

Even though the FPÖ is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SPÖ and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SPÖ and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SPÖ/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.

Do no-confidence votes require an "alternative candidate" like in Spain or Germany? Or is it just a new election happening anyways?

[Former President tack50]

Wait, so no alternative Chancellor is needed like in Germany?

Honestly I'm surprised Austria hasn't had a succesful no confidence vote with how easy it is. Destructive no confidence votes I thought led to extreme instability like in the Weimar Republic or the 4th French Republic

[Former President tack50]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I believe NEOS is more openly pro-EU (not that FDP is anti-EU in the slightest, but iirc NEOS openly wants the "united states of Europe") and more left wing overall? (both economically and socially)

[Former President tack50]

Kurz+ÖVP will already launch a poster campaign this week and some say it looks like Leni Riefenstahl made it:



Source: free ÖVP poster.

"SPÖ+FPÖ have forced new elections. The people will decide. Our way forward has just begun."

Looking at that campaign poster, I would interpret Rot-Blau as SPÖ-ÖVP? (which obviously doesn't make any sense)

What is ÖVP's official colour? I know they used to use black but now they are also using blue? Or do they call it cyan/turquoise?

[Former President tack50]

Wow, this is sickening:

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.

I would have thought the ultra-Christians would be FPÖ voters and not ÖVP ones? I guess christian democrats still do get the devout christian vote.

[Former President tack50]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?

[Former President tack50]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the ÖVP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

[Former President tack50]

The Kurz-ÖVP has decided that FPÖ's Kickl will "not be part of a future ÖVP-FPÖ coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FPÖ, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The ÖVP's strategy to divide and split the FPÖ into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FPÖ will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the ÖVP ("the FPÖ will not be put down by the ÖVP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the ÖVP is already secretly "preparing for ÖVP-Green or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership under Sebastian Kurz or a coalition of chaos led by Pamela Rendi Wagner

[Former President tack50]

Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

[Former President tack50]

Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the ÖVP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

Tbh wouldn't the BPÖ have a chance in a regional election if they are at 5% in Vienna?

[Former President tack50]

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

ÖVP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

ÖVP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SPÖ totally collapses even behind the FPÖ.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for ÖVP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SPÖ under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FPÖ (but that is more unlikely).

Why would SPÖ agree to that? Do they want to end like the SPD in Germany?

[Former President tack50]

No percentages this time but I got Jetzt>SPÖ=Grüne>Neos>FPÖ>ÖVP

[Former President tack50]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?