Hypothetical: McCain enters race

[© tweed]

Probably 60% of McCain's votes would come from Bush, 25% from  Kerry, and 15% from people who wouldn't have voted.

McCain wouldn't win any states outside of AZ.

PV:

Kerry 40%
Bush 35%
McCain 25%

[© tweed]

I would assume that Nader would be forced out of the race. McCain's support would come heaviest in the states where Perot did well.

Nader would still run but wouldn't get many votes.

[© tweed]

Probably 60% of McCain's votes would come from Bush, 25% from  Kerry, and 15% from people who wouldn't have voted.

McCain wouldn't win any states outside of AZ.

PV:

Kerry 40%
Bush 35%
McCain 25%

A couple of Summer 2001 polls showed that a Bush-Gore-McCain 2004 race would be terrific news for Bush.

Most of those had it a Bush 45-Gore 40-McCain 20

[© tweed]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Has anyone seen how many states Nader is likely to appear on the ballot? He has got to spend a ton of money and coordinate his petitioners extremely well to appear on enough states to be meaningful. Perhaps Richard Winger at Ballot Access News has some insights and data. Without a party to support him, I think he is going to find it very tough to mount a truly national campaign. In short, I don't think he is going to matter much anyway.

If he only polls .25% in a superclose state it could make the difference.  If Bush wins Ohio by 300 votes (which is NOT an exaggeration after what happened last time), he could be the difference.