2015 Academy Awards Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I've not seen Milk. Did it mention his links to the People's Temple or was it entirely sanitised?

I did say it was pure Oscar bait. Pity.

That's a shame. Because there's a great film to be made about that bizarre episode in the history of California.

Only P.T. Anderson can direct it imo.

[King]

The lack of a good film about the Peoples Temple that isn't pure exploration schlock about Jonestown is indeed sad.

[checkers]

Yeah definitely re Jim Jones. I'd love to see something go into his links with the Carter campaign.

Four Weddings is definitely remembered here. I haven't seen it (don't really want to) but out of the 1994 films it's probably the best known bar maybe Forrest Gump. My grandparents wouldn't know of Pulp Fiction or The Shawshank Redemption but they know Four Weddings, you know.

(Does anyone remember Four Weddings and a Funeral or Quiz Show any more?)

I like both of them.

This reminds me of when your sig's roommate reminisced about the 90s as the "glory years. Brit-Pop was just kicking off, Four Weddings had just come out, it was mental."

[Eraserhead]

The lack of a good film about the Peoples Temple that isn't pure exploration schlock about Jonestown is indeed sad.

So true.

[Eraserhead]

When was the last time a Best Picture race was this competitive this late in the game?

[King]

When was the last time a Best Picture race was this competitive this late in the game?

Kings Speech/Social Network went down to the wire. Fincher was still favorite to win Best Director the night of IIRC.

[Lief 🗽]

Last year's race was closer, from what I remember. I think this race is lean Birdman at this point, while last year was closer to toss-up/tilt 12 Years a Slave.

[Mr. Smith]

The lack of a good film about the Peoples Temple that isn't pure exploration schlock about Jonestown is indeed sad.

And yet there's a perfectly good adaptable book on the matter, came out 15+ years ago actually.

And believe me, it would definitely be Oscar material.

[King]

I heard an interesting theory on a podcast that makes sense: Birdman has more "first choice" supporters, which is why it is sweeping the guilds (which all do simple one member, one vote counts because of the size of their memberships). Meanwhile, Boyhood is winning the Globes, BAFTAs, and critic associations which use various preferential voting methods, which also explains how Grand Budapest Hotel--a movie which everybody likes but nobody loves--won comedy over Birdman at the Globes.

This was also how Ang Lee won Best Director (straight vote) but somehow Crash won Best Picture (preferential). We could see that again with Inarritu/Boyhood.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That's good news, considering that I was far more impressed by Boyhood than I was by Birdman.

[King]

Very interesting theory, but it would surprise me. Boyhood voters seems to be the type to go BH 1, BM 2 or 3, whereas Birdman voters are more likely to keep BH low, like 6 or lower. It's hard not to enjoy Birdman, but if you enjoy both, I'd imagine Boyhood is more likely to get the nod. If not, you probably disliked it pretty strongly.

It's highly likely everyone knows the politics involved and all the BH and BM voters are intentionally putting the other at 7th. Whiplash and Grand Budapest Hotel voters are likely going to second place Boyhood in support of independent filmmaking. Meanwhile, Harvey Weinstein is apparently on a tour to white guilt people to vote for Selma as their 2nd choice, which could change things.

[Lief 🗽]

Very interesting theory, but it would surprise me. Boyhood voters seems to be the type to go BH 1, BM 2 or 3, whereas Birdman voters are more likely to keep BH low, like 6 or lower. It's hard not to enjoy Birdman, but if you enjoy both, I'd imagine Boyhood is more likely to get the nod. If not, you probably disliked it pretty strongly.

It's highly likely everyone knows the politics involved and all the BH and BM voters are intentionally putting the other at 7th. Whiplash and Grand Budapest Hotel voters are likely going to second place Boyhood in support of independent filmmaking. Meanwhile, Harvey Weinstein is apparently on a tour to white guilt people to vote for Selma as their 2nd choice, which could change things.

Damn, I wish there were an Atlas forum equivalent for Oscar politics!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Very interesting theory, but it would surprise me. Boyhood voters seems to be the type to go BH 1, BM 2 or 3, whereas Birdman voters are more likely to keep BH low, like 6 or lower. It's hard not to enjoy Birdman, but if you enjoy both, I'd imagine Boyhood is more likely to get the nod. If not, you probably disliked it pretty strongly.

It's highly likely everyone knows the politics involved and all the BH and BM voters are intentionally putting the other at 7th. Whiplash and Grand Budapest Hotel voters are likely going to second place Boyhood in support of independent filmmaking. Meanwhile, Harvey Weinstein is apparently on a tour to white guilt people to vote for Selma as their 2nd choice, which could change things.

Selma isn't even a Weinstein film

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When was the last time a Best Picture race was this competitive this late in the game?

Kings Speech/Social Network went down to the wire. Fincher was still favorite to win Best Director the night of IIRC.

Yes, but DGA went to Hooper, which was a massive warning sign.

I've been reading some very interesting anecdotal stuff that none of the films in the 8 have an extremely solid base of support. This is probably the most open for an upset that it has been for a long time.

Consider, regardless of whether Boyhood or Birdman wins BP, it's quite possible that Budapest wins the most. Yes, it happened with Gravity last year, but Gravity won Director and was pretty obviously in second place in the end.

I don't think we've seen so many categories up in the air at this point in the race.

- Visual effects (Interstellar v Dawn-Apes v Guardians)
- Make up (Budapest v Guardians)
- Sound mixing (Sniper v Birdman v Whiplash)
- Sound editing (Sniper v Birdman v Unbroken)
- Score (Theory of E v Imitation Game v Budapest (note that both TIG and TGBH are Alexandre Desplat)
- Film editing (Boyhood v Budapest v Whiplash)
- Original Screenplay (Budapest v Birdman)
- Adapted (Imitation Game v Whiplash v maybe even Sniper)
- Actor (Redmayne v Keaton)
- Director (Iñárritu v Linklater (and I know people predicting Anderson))
- Picture ... with preferential ballots and no one film as favourite (obvs Birdman v Boyhood) anything could happen.

[Eraserhead]

Eh, I don't know guys, I seem to recall The King's Speech and 12 Years a Slave being heavy favorites by this point.

That said, I agree that the race is leaning toward Birdman.

I wish we still had an Oscar pool at my job. I used to make bank off of that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eh, I don't know guys, I seem to recall The King's Speech and 12 Years a Slave being heavy favorites by this point.

That said, I agree that the race is leaning toward Birdman.

I wish we still had an Oscar pool at my job. I used to make bank off of that.

I think only people who don't understand how things work thought Social Network would win. DGA tends to have a stronger correlation to Picture than Director (oddly). So a combination of an upset DGA win for Hooper (Hooper lost the BAFTA to Fincher) and the fact that AMPAS were not the right audience for TSN...

So I think in that year,  Director went down to the wire, but Picture was pretty settled. 

The guild performance of Birdman is pretty extraordinary - it's won every guild award it was eligible for, except editing (it lost to TGBH) ...

[Eraserhead]

Here are my final predictions (because I know you've all been waiting for these):

Best Picture: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Cinematography: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Best Documentary Feature: CitizenFour
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song: "Glory" by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Animated Short Film: Feast
Best Live Action Short Film: The Phone Call
Best Sound Editing: Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel

[The Other Castro]

My guesses for the things I care about:

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Animated Feature Film: Big Hero 6
Best Original Score: Interstellar
Best Original Song: Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Documentary Feature: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Film Editing: Whiplash
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "Glory", Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Animated Short Film: Feast
Best Live Action Short Film: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

[Eraserhead]

I honestly have to say that this looks like a really good crop of movies, and it's been a while since I've been able to say that. Looks like they've assembled a lot of good, absorbing contemporary dramas here, and I'll probably get around to watching most of them at some point this year.

Birdman, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game look at this point like the most interesting to me. My choice never wins, ever, so I'll guess Sniper wins best picture or one of the others.

There's no way in hell that American Sniper will win Best Picture. It'll be lucky to win anything (if it does it'll be in one of the technical categories). Best Picture is gonna go to either Birdman or Boyhood but if there is a dark horse to watch in that race, it's probably The Grand Budapest Hotel IMO.

[checkers]

My predictions (only the ones I know anything about):

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Best Cinematography: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "Glory" (from Selma)
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

[Mr. Morden]

Razzies have been announced:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/22/us-awards-razzies-idUSKBN0LQ02W20150222

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I honestly have to say that this looks like a really good crop of movies, and it's been a while since I've been able to say that. Looks like they've assembled a lot of good, absorbing contemporary dramas here, and I'll probably get around to watching most of them at some point this year.

Birdman, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game look at this point like the most interesting to me. My choice never wins, ever, so I'll guess Sniper wins best picture or one of the others.

There's no way in hell that American Sniper will win Best Picture. It'll be lucky to win anything (if it does it'll be in one of the technical categories). Best Picture is gonna go to either Birdman or Boyhood but if there is a dark horse to watch in that race, it's probably The Grand Budapest Hotel IMO.

Agreed, the preferential voting and a tight race, it could realistically happen.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, time to put in my predictions before the ceremony starts:

Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Iñárritu for Birdman
Best Actor: Keaton
Best Actress: Moore
Best Supporting Actor: Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Arquette
Best Original Screenplay: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: Imitation Game (Ugh...)
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Production Design: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: Foxcatcher
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Original Score: Theory of Everything (again, ugh; Desplat should win for GBH but I think his vote will be split)
Best Original Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

No idea on the shorts.

[RI]

As long as Boyhood doesn't win Best Picture, I'll be happy, though a win or two by Interstellar would be nice, too.