Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[lilTommy]

Some reasons why there is no NPDQ... yet

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Democrats+consider+resurrecting+provincial+party+Quebec/7090600/story.html

The main problem is than a large part of NDP voters are independantists.

Well Soft-sovereigntist i suppost; any NDP MP would still have to support the Sherbrooke Declaration but, yes there are some QS members/supporters in the caucus.

I get the impression that most left wingers in Quebec are nationalists, so is there a market for left-wing federalists?

Hmmm i don't think its that simple... i think its varying shades of grey more then anything.  Yes i think their is a market but right now you have the PLQ who owns anything federalist, and has been getting away with attracting the "progressive" federalist vote

[Hatman 🍁]

Some reasons why there is no NPDQ... yet

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Democrats+consider+resurrecting+provincial+party+Quebec/7090600/story.html

The main problem is than a large part of NDP voters are independantists.

Well Soft-sovereigntist i suppost; any NDP MP would still have to support the Sherbrooke Declaration but, yes there are some QS members/supporters in the caucus.

I get the impression that most left wingers in Quebec are nationalists, so is there a market for left-wing federalists?

Yes, but there has to be federalists in Quebec that hate Jean Charest. There is definitely a market for that. There's probably a good 25% of voters that are federalist and will not/wish they had other choices other than to vote for the PLQ.

[lilTommy]

Agreed Hatman... but with the first-past-the-post system; can you pin-point a riding a Left-wing Federalist party would/could win? my top choice would be Mercier (QS already)... anywhere else?

[Hatman 🍁]

NDG seems to me as the most left wing federalist riding in Quebec. (consequently it is the best riding for the PVQ- the de facto party of left wing federalists, even though they aren't federalist per se)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just heard that on radio.
CROP poll

PQ 34, PLQ 27, CAQ 25.

PLQ reduced to a West Island rump with those figures?

[lilTommy]

NDG seems to me as the most left wing federalist riding in Quebec. (consequently it is the best riding for the PVQ- the de facto party of left wing federalists, even though they aren't federalist per se)

You know, i always forget the greens
true, ya i'd agree... AND Project Montreal councillor for NDG is Peter McQueen who was the PVQ candidate in 2008

[MaxQue]

Yes i think their is a market but right now you have the PLQ who owns anything federalist, and has been getting away with attracting the "progressive" federalist vote

No. I know a number of NDP members planning to vote PQ (and QS) to get Charest out.

[lilTommy]

Yes i think their is a market but right now you have the PLQ who owns anything federalist, and has been getting away with attracting the "progressive" federalist vote

No. I know a number of NDP members planning to vote PQ (and QS) to get Charest out.

So their IS a market; its just as i thought though, that left-federalist-ish (NPD types) are voting for the more established/more able to win non-liberal parties... and that makes total sense. I've said it before, i'd vote QS if i lived in Quebec.

[lilTommy]

Just heard that on radio.
CROP poll

PQ 34, PLQ 27, CAQ 25.

PLQ reduced to a West Island rump with those figures?

IF their lucky they will be able to keep the west island seats...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/liberals-scramble-to-save-non-francophone-support-as-caq-rises-in-polls/article4483960/

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

[MaxQue]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

No, no, no. The NDP voting area in federal Outremont is the Mile End and the west of the Plateau. Which are in provincial Gouin and Mercier. The provincial Outremont only contains the wealthy and Jew Outremont and the immigrant Côte-des-Neiges.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh. How does QS do in Mile End then? That area is at least somewhat federalist, no?

[RogueBeaver]

Charest pleads for Caquistes to vote Grit.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356957/jean-charest-appelle-les-caquistes-a-se-rallier-au-plq-pour-bloquer-le-pq

Lisee: Notwithstanding clause to override the Supremes on language. Looks like Curzi has found his successor.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/16/01-4565767-charte-sur-la-laicite-le-pq-pourrait-defier-la-cour-supreme-dit-lisee.php?

Marois' ID shtick: even the best Anglo commentators, McPherson and Macdonald, are missing a key part of that puzzle. Marois said a few years ago that she believed one of the reasons Boisclair got pushed into third was because he ceded the ID issue to Dumont and therefore a chunk of those voters. "Come hell or high water, no one's outbidding me there" essentially.


While I strongly disagree with Josee Legault's view here, her take on Legault's now-infamous comments on academic performance is still worth reading. On a related tangent, the problems with both English and French K-11 public schools should be the educational discussion this campaign. But it never will be.

http://www2.lactualite.com/josee-legault/2012/08/14/francois-legault-des-risques-du-populisme/

[MaxQue]

Ahh. How does QS do in Mile End then? That area is at least somewhat federalist, no?

That's the best area of Mercier for QS, Liberals are second (while they are 3rd in the rest of the riding).



Mile End is the Western area (North-West for a Montrealer, given the rotation of the cardinal points on Montreal everyday life).

[MaxQue]

Riding polls since the beginning.

Sherbrooke (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/actualites/201208/10/01-4564008-cardin-mene-par-15-points-dans-sherbrooke.php), Segma-La Tribune-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 46, PLQ (Charest himself) 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, Green 2, ON 2

Granby (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/10/01-4564211-francois-bonnardel-largement-en-avance.php), Segma-La Voix de l'Est:
CAQ 49 (incumbent), PQ 24, PLQ 16,

Dubuc (http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/001-dubuc-sondage-segma.shtml), Segma-Le Quotidien-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 44, PLQ(incumbent) 32, CAQ 18, QS 4

[MaxQue]

Léger-QMI poll, reported on radio.
PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27.

[You kip if you want to...]

Seems that CAQ has (traditional) LibDem syndrome: polling like crap until the writs are dropped.

[lilTommy]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

So potential trargets would be NDG, Gouin, Hull, Chapleau... i'd also include Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques, Laurier-Dorion (current QS targets; both left one very urban, very Trinity-Spadina; the other more ethnically mixed, poorer). I'd also say it might be worth to look at some Northern ridings like the Abitibi's, Ungava... they could be worth an effort. The only time the CCf won was when they won Royn-Noranda (correct me if i'm wrong)

[Hatman 🍁]

yes, the CCF won one of the Abitbi seats with less than 30% of the vote in a 4-way race.

Anyways, looks like that strip of Mercier along its south-west border is probably very left - federalist.

Riding polls since the beginning.

Sherbrooke (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/actualites/201208/10/01-4564008-cardin-mene-par-15-points-dans-sherbrooke.php), Segma-La Tribune-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 46, PLQ (Charest himself) 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, Green 2, ON 2

Granby (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/10/01-4564211-francois-bonnardel-largement-en-avance.php), Segma-La Voix de l'Est:
CAQ 49 (incumbent), PQ 24, PLQ 16,

Dubuc (http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/001-dubuc-sondage-segma.shtml), Segma-Le Quotidien-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 44, PLQ(incumbent) 32, CAQ 18, QS 4

Numbers are similar to mine for Dubuc, but I have Sherbrooke as a tie right now. Maybe I should be less generous to Charest. In Granby I have the CAQ winning by a lot, but not that much.

[StateBoiler]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TncdhLGjFTE

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TncdhLGjFTE

My hackish view of separatism (Quebecois and Scottish), summed up.

[RogueBeaver]

Bellemare endorses Cardin in Sherbrooke.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/002-marc-bellemare-annonce-candidature-vendredi-sherbrooke.shtml

Oh FFS. There are plenty of people trying to politicize hockey as is, this crap will make it much worse if she's serious.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-quebecoises/201208/17/01-4565837-pq-la-souverainete-passe-aussi-par-le-hockey.php?

Charest: Still on track for balanced budget next FY.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/17/01-4565956-les-promesses-nempecheront-pas-lequilibre-budgetaire-dit-charest.php

Legault: No cooperation in a minority situation. He might not have a choice.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357059/legault-refuserait-de-collaborer-avec-un-gouvernement-minoritaire

[DL]

Here is what i predict - the CAQ party will soon overtake the Liberals and that will cause even more Liberal voters to start to vote "strategically" for CAQ just to stop the PQ (like the way last year there was a flood of federal Liberal voters going NDP the moment the NDP started to overtake the Liberals)...I think we will end up in a minority situation where the PQ has the largest number of seats followed by the CAQ and the Liberals are reduced to being an anglophone rump. The PLQ will then make a deal with Legault to block Marois and we will have a CAQ minority government.

[You kip if you want to...]

Here is what i predict - the CAQ party will soon overtake the Liberals and that will cause even more Liberal voters to start to vote "strategically" for CAQ just to stop the PQ (like the way last year there was a flood of federal Liberal voters going NDP the moment the NDP started to overtake the Liberals)...I think we will end up in a minority situation where the PQ has the largest number of seats followed by the CAQ and the Liberals are reduced to being an anglophone rump. The PLQ will then make a deal with Legault to block Marois and we will have a CAQ minority government.

Premier Legault. *sn*

[RogueBeaver]

We're not even halfway through the campaign. Plus the debates starting Sunday. That's Charest's best and probably last chance to go on offense.