2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NBC/Survey Monkey

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 39%

I couldn't find a previous NBC/Survey Monkey poll, but according to 538 the last NBC poll was with Wall Street and it was

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/Survey Monkey

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 39%

I couldn't find a previous NBC/Survey Monkey poll, but according to 538 the last NBC poll was with Wall Street and it was

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

Those aren't really comparable (other than in the sense that all generic ballot polls are comparable).  They're different polling organizations, and the SurveyMonkey poll is of all adults while the NBC/WSJ one is of registered voters.

[KingSweden]

D+6 in both models, hmm?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's 270 to win Forcast(They still have the GOP winning the House):


https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

[The Other Castro]

Here's 270 to win Forcast(They still have the GOP winning the House):


https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

It's just a map version of the Sabato ratings.

[KingSweden]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

[junior chįmp]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

Told you guys. Stick to da fundamentals

[Hindsight was 2020]

ABC has dems up 14 but more importantly have a massive enthusiasm gap as 51% of dems are "highly motivated to vote" vs only 34% rep http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/strength-party-strongholds-key-midterm-outcomes-poll/story?id=52795264&__twitter_impression=true

[Gass3268]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

[junior chįmp]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That actually looks like a depolarization effect.

[Holmes]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

This is actually what I'm doing with my extra $12 per paycheck. I already have a Costco membership.

[YE]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

[junior chįmp]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC has dems up 14 but more importantly have a massive enthusiasm gap as 51% of dems are "highly motivated to vote" vs only 34% rep http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/strength-party-strongholds-key-midterm-outcomes-poll/story?id=52795264&__twitter_impression=true

FWIW, this poll was conducted Jan. 15-18 and the topline of D+14 was released on Jan. 22.  (Source) The additional details on the enthusiasm gap were embargoed until today.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

[Landslide Lyndon]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

That's like saying that plague is more popular than Ebola.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

No, they're not.  Don't confuse their result in the generic ballot with their popularity.

CNN Nov 2017: 30% approval

CNN/SSRS Sep 2017: 29%

Gallup Sep 2017: 36%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

The GOP had a 43% favorable rating vs Trump 49% approval in Alabama. Trump is more popular than the gop in basically every poll I've seen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

"Maybe it's just noise!"

-Nate Silver

[KingSweden]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

[kph14]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

According to Kyle Kondik, Clinton won the Democratic districts by 34 (now 38), while Trump won the Republican districts by 21 (now 6). That actually makes a lot of sense, as Democrats can't really outperform in the big cities and it also fits perfectly to the special election results in KS-4, MT-AL, SC-05 and various state legislative elections that happened over the last year.

[KingSweden]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

According to Kyle Kondik, Clinton won the Democratic districts by 34 (now 38), while Trump won the Republican districts by 21 (now 6). That actually makes a lot of sense, as Democrats can't really outperform in the big cities and it also fits perfectly to the special election results in KS-4, MT-AL, SC-05 and various state legislative elections that happened over the last year.

That actually comports with the swings we’ve seen, almost exactly

[junior chįmp]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

[Devout Centrist]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

Wow, it's even larger than it was for Republicans in 2010...