CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA

[dspNY]

Why is Nevada not moving hard to Clinton like Colorado did? Nevada should be more demographically favorable

[dspNY]

No Spanish option...

Is there really no Spanish option? How can you poll NV and AZ without a Spanish interviewer or questionnaire

[dspNY]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html#polls
In the end the margin was 4 points higher.

Yes, but Democrats also outperformed the polls in most other states that year (especially in NH, IA and CO).

May happen in NV this year once again. Romney better fits for NV than Drumpf. If this pattern remains to same, Hillary will win NV in November by at least eight points.

Also factor in Reid machine working like hell to get Cortez-Masto elected. Reid is still the most powerful man in the state

[dspNY]

Demographics look OK on Arizona. In 2012 the electorate was 73% white, 19% Hispanic, 8% African-American/other. This poll has it at 74% white, 18% Hispanic, 3% African-American and 5% Asian. Since the Hispanic voter population is growing substantially in Arizona that gives Clinton a lot of room to grow from this poll. I think Trump +2 is right or close to right.

Demographics actually look favorable to Trump compared to the actual Nevada electorate. In 2012 the electorate was 64% white, 19% Hispanic, 9% African-American and 5% Asian. The Nevada poll has 67% white voters when most of the registration increases going on in the state are Democratic and non-white in Clark County (indicating an electorate that will be more diverse than 2012). Jon Ralston has repeatedly said that the voter registration numbers are leading towards a durable Democratic advantage in the state. I think Clinton +2 understates her advantage by 3 or 4 points due to these factors. That would explain why Reid said not to be overconfident (implying that Dems are ahead but not decisively so).