Ontario 2018 election

[Linus Van Pelt]

Haha, this is wild.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age.

It's gotten debunked for the States where one's party is more or less set after three elections, but I'm not sure that's the case in Canada. Our riding trends seem to indicate that it's not set in stone. E.g. The Tories pulling 40% in heavily Jewish and Italian ridings in a bad year that Chretien used to win with 60-70%.

Even for the States, this is complicated. There's a piece about it in the NY Times here; it's true that the effect is overrated, and events during adolescence and young adulthood are formative, but still a lot of cohorts have become a bit more right wing as they age.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Here are the regions used by Mainstreet.  The ridings are listed on 'Ridings and Regions' section of their poll report.  I emailed Mainstreet about the Huron-Bruce and Simcoe-Grey oddities, and they confirmed that they are correct.

LOL, what

I always think people are exaggerating with their "Torontonians think Barrie is in Northern Ontario" schtick, but here we literally have Grey County in the north for no area code or postal code reason.

[Linus Van Pelt]

My guess is that the Liberals will not be reduced to 2-3, but will win a few random ethnic ridings in the GTA.

Could be wrong, though, we'll see.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Most "structural advantages" are pretty dubious, outside of cases in which you have a concentrated ethnic minority like black Americans or non-Francophone Montrealers.

[Linus Van Pelt]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

[Linus Van Pelt]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/articles/TheStar22Jan2006a.pdf

https://www.gettyimages.ca/event/stephen-harper-rallies-voters-in-ontario-56627831#/conservative-party-leader-stephen-harper-shakes-hands-with-supporters-picture-id56641425

Oh I see what you mean, like a place national politicians visit on the campaign trail.

Have you been to the Gardenia? Is it any good? I wouldn't mind knowing of a good place to eat along the 402.

[Linus Van Pelt]

According to this article: https://globalnews.ca/news/4228557/david-akin-20-closest-ridings-ontario/ the NDP is also targeting Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and Ottawa South. I've started seeing the NDP numbers go up in the first two ridings, so that's believable (although hard to fathom from a historical perspective), but Ottawa South... I just can't see it. I'm not active on the local campaign this time, so I can't tell if there really is momentum, but they do claim an impressive number of volunteers and have apparently run out of signs. Anecdotally I do know I haven't been canvassed or seen any literature in my mailbox (yet). I haven't seen many signs either, though I live on the edge of the riding, so haven't ventured much into the nieghbourhoods (which I plan to do at some point before e-Day).

For all our talk of the differences between eastern and southwestern Ontario, a lot of the non-GTA areas between, say, roughly Kingston and London are honestly pretty similar. Some of the "eastern" and "southwestern" stereotypes really apply more to the geographical extremes, the automotive rust belt between London and Windsor and the traditional Loyalist + French areas in the Ottawa & St. Lawrence valleys.

So if (big "if", of course) the NDP is really getting a 1990-style rural working class vote again, and breaking out of just Chatham and Essex, I don't think Hastings or Haliburton are that much more surprising than similar ridings west of Toronto.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Presumably most countries don't have pollster CEO's who sh*tpost on Twitter like Quito Maggi or Darrell Bricker, at least.