Political future of North Carolina

[Person Man]

Probably Florida 2.0

With New Hanover as the Jacksonville area, The Triangle as Orlando/Tampa, Buncombe as Gainesville, Charlotte as Miami-Dade, Western NC as the Panhandle, and Eastern NC as the I-4 Corridor.

I agree with this. NC will probably end up as a much close, swingy state that tilts ever so slightly more Republican than the nation.

Could any other state join this "Tilt R" column of states and voters that usually vote Republican but can be persuaded under unique circumstances. Basically the reason why every election in the last 30 years has either been a heartbreaker or a non-quite-a-landslide for Democrats.

I imagine these people are your typical 45 year old suburban white people who did well in college but have their degree in something somewhat easy from a school that is somewhat easy to get in. Most of them have boring jobs  in low rise office parks with good but not great pay. Maybe 75000 a year. They probably have someone at home who probably takes care of the place but probably brings in like 30000 or the side.  You know. The type of people who claim not to have serious problems with women's rights or gay rights but probably felt "taken advantage of" by Obamacare but eventually got used to it. They probably are open to some of Trump's ideas on immigration, but not trade. Most of them will say they "disapprove" of Trump but unless the Democrats are winning, basically all of them will hold their nose for him.

In states like Colorado or Virginia, they probably kept voting for Hillary and will never vote for Trump but many of them still identify as Republicans and Independents.

They are the reason that if an election is decided by less than 3%, the Republicans will win.

[Person Man]

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

I guess that why Texas might be a bit of stretch. Then again, its a really big state with really big cities and several mid-sized ones. California would be any example of that. Arizona is a place where Democrats should already be doing better in but there could have been why they were struggling but doing better now. Indianapolis is a state that HATES democrats, too but then again, I've been through Indianapolis and its much smaller than the census appears to apply.

My guess that besides the urban/liberal composition would be how much of the areas are suburban and how liberal/conservative the rural and urban areas really are.

In Oklahoma, for example, the rural areas are really Republican and the cities are just sorta Republican. In Florida, the cities are just sorta Democratic and the rural areas are really Republican. In the biggest western states and the northeastern ones, it appears to be the other way around.

[Person Man]

Georgia is more likely to be a new Virginia than North Carolina. North Carolina Republicans benefit from multiple mid sized cities (similar to Ohio, Florida), instead of a singular metropolis (Georgia). States with a giant metropolis seem more inclined to democrats. See: Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, Virginia

Uh, Virginia does not fit this definition whatsoever.

There’s something to be said about the demographic trends and similarities between Virginia and Georgia, but the way you framed this is not accurate.

Washington.

[Person Man]

“There must be SOME explanation for cosmopolitan professionals who aren’t like me!”

Sounds like a question you’d also ask as a cosmopolitan Republican voter.

Boooooom !

So uh... what's actually going on here? You have a better way of describing swing voters that almost almost vote Republican in close elections and Democrat is less close elections? They usually are your typical slightly above average middle aged white people in  places like Sanford,FL,  Loveland,CO, and Scranton, PA.   

I think of Michael Scott from the Office or Jerry Smith for Rick and Morty.