Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Oryxslayer]

Did Bronco seriously advocate cutting off someone's hand if they're caught stealing?

If it worked for the Byzantines...

[Oryxslayer]

Goldman Sachs report says that AMLO holds a 90% chance of winning the election, followed by Anaya with 10%

Why I have no doubt AMLO will probably win, I have to remind people that the investor-types gave BN 85% chance of victory in Malaysia. They only have the polling data we do, and are trying to get the markets to bake in a result rather then track ground movements. Treat this with a grain of salt.

[Oryxslayer]

Prez vote, with 57% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    55.12%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.26%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.06%
El Bronco                           5.57%


Senate vote, with 56% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               46.13%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.03%        28            10             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              22.72%        13              7             20
IND                                   2.12%


House vote with 55% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.99%       218           93            311
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.14%         68           59            127
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.86%         14           48             62
IND                                   1.01%

As the vote continues AMLO/MORENA is losing vote share.  I think MORENA-PT-PES Senate majority is safe.  What is more at  risk is constitutional majority in the House (300.)

What would this look like if PES and PANAL miss the 3% line, as you assume they will?