MS Special NBC/SurveyMonkey: Espy +1, Rs at 43

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyMississippiPollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

Espy 25
Hyde Smith 24
McDaniel 19
Undecided 27

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, didn't expect McDaniel to be that high. This could be a shocker.

[TarHeelDem]

I see an exhilaratingly stressful scenario in which Dems win NV and AZ but lose ND on election night, with an Espy/McDaniel run-off down the road determining Senate control. Trump and Obama both hold rallies and the national media descends on the state for a circus of utter madness as the country holds its breath...

[😥]

This race can become a false expectation. Espy can win. It's Tossup. Maybe Mississippi may have the first Democratic senator since 1989

[Skye]

Wow, didn't expect McDaniel to be that high. This could be a shocker.

It's a SurveyMonkey poll, though.

[libertpaulian]

Wow, didn't expect McDaniel to be that high. This could be a shocker.

It's a SurveyMonkey poll, though.

SurveyMonkey was the only poll to show Eric Holcomb pulling ahead of John Gregg in the last two weeks of the IN-GOV campaign.  We all know who won that one.

[Skye]

Wow, didn't expect McDaniel to be that high. This could be a shocker.

It's a SurveyMonkey poll, though.

SurveyMonkey was the only poll to show Eric Holcomb pulling ahead of John Gregg in the last two weeks of the IN-GOV campaign.  We all know who won that one.

They can be right once in a while, like Gravis. But still, they're definitely a terrible pollster.

[Use Your Illusion]

Lean R until proven otherwise

[ON Progressive]

LeanSafe R until proven otherwise

[MT Treasurer]

LeanSafe R Toss-up until proven otherwise

[OneJ]

Way too many undecideds and I expect Hyde-Smith to have a bigger advantage over McDaniel than this to make the runoff.

EDIT: Another thing to note, only 25% of respondents are black.

[Xing]

LeanSafe RToss-up Likely R until proven otherwise

[TheSaint250]

LeanSafe RToss-up Likely R until proven otherwise

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's become very clear the first round is impossible to poll. They should just focus on polling runoff scenarios.

[Tender Branson]

Why is NBC using Marist and SurveyMonkey ?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This will stay at Likely R in my ratings until we see what the results of the first round are. Reminder that the last time we had a special here in a D wave year (2008), the Republican won by 10 points against an A-list Democratic Candidate.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

[Politician]

Jim Hood and Brandon Presley are pretty much the only Dems who can win in MS (barring a major scandal). Let's be honest.

[MT Treasurer]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

That’s what they said about Doug Jones. Espy can definitely win this, especially since turnout in the runoff is likely to favor Democrats.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

That’s what they said about Doug Jones. Espy can definitely win this, especially since turnout in the runoff is likely to favor Democrats.

LOL, I knew that someone would bring up Doug Jones. Doug Jones's victory was an anomaly.

If Roy Moore wasn't a pedophile, he would have coasted to victory.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

That’s what they said about Doug Jones. Espy can definitely win this, especially since turnout in the runoff is likely to favor Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008

[Use Your Illusion]

Dammit... Yes I mean likely R until proven otherwise. Thanks for the correction. MS is titanium Republican territory and any unlikely upset is going to be difficult to predict and poll. You can't get your hopes up until the last vote is counted. It is what it is, MS is just conservative and always has been

[MT Treasurer]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

That’s what they said about Doug Jones. Espy can definitely win this, especially since turnout in the runoff is likely to favor Democrats.

LOL, I knew that someone would bring up Doug Jones. Doug Jones's victory was an anomaly.

If Roy Moore wasn't a pedophile, he would have coasted to victory.

Yeah, and I disagree with your assumption, which is why I brought up Jones' victory. Either way, Democrats have won special elections in many solidly Republican districts so far, so saying that this race is Safe R in a massive Democratic wave year (presumably?) because "it’s Mississippi after all" makes little sense, especially since the decisive election will be held on Nov. 27, not Nov. 6.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I just do not think that Espy has a chance of winning. It's Mississippi after all.

That’s what they said about Doug Jones. Espy can definitely win this, especially since turnout in the runoff is likely to favor Democrats.

LOL, I knew that someone would bring up Doug Jones. Doug Jones's victory was an anomaly.

If Roy Moore wasn't a pedophile, he would have coasted to victory.

Yeah, and I disagree with your assumption, which is why I brought up Jones' victory. Either way, Democrats have won special elections in many solidly Republican districts so far, so saying that this race is Safe R in a massive Democratic wave year (presumably?) because "it’s Mississippi after all" makes little sense, especially since the decisive election will be held on Nov. 27, not Nov. 6.

Nah, I just don't see it happening. If Espy does win then I would be absolutely shocked but also very happy.

[MT Treasurer]

Nah, I just don't see it happening. If Espy does win then I would be absolutely shocked but also very happy.

Fair enough, it’s always good to lower expectations.