Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing.

[StatesPoll]

Final Poll: Rasmussen(Nov 2-4, 2012)  Obama 48%, Romney 49%
Margin of Error(MOE): +-3%
Final Results (Nov 6, 2012)  Obama 51.1%(+3.1%), Romney 47.2%(-1.8%)

1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
2. Romney's turnout was worse tha Obama (especially, as exit Poll: Black voter-66%, White voter-64%)


Missread 1.8%~3.1% wasn't that horrible as Red Avatars are bashing Rasmussen everyday.
(unless they did Poll-Plus forecast.)

Especially, TRUMP's turnouts would be much better than Romney for sure.
So in my opinion in 2016, I don't think Rasmussen is overvaluing TRUMP's numbers that much.

It's so weird Red Avatars are always looking down Rasmussen Polls.
(But they never complain of  Ipsos/Reuters Poll, Even when they weight Women 60% - Men 39%
Dem 45% - Rep 31% - Ind 12% in this summer.)

[StatesPoll]

You're citing the national poll alone; what about state polls?

1. Ohio : Not that bad (Margin of Error)
2. Virginia: Obama- a little bit outlier. Romney: Margin of error
3. Wisconsin: horrible. I admit.
4. New Hampshire: outlier, but still inside of MOE.
5. North Carolina: Not that bad(Margin of Error) especailly poll was conducted 12 days before election day
6. Iowa: Obama- a little bit outlier, Romney - Margin of error.
7. Colorado:horrible. I admit. But Poll was conducted 8 days before Election Day.
8. Nevada: Not that bad(Margin of Error) and Poll was conducted 15 days before Election Day.

Ohio:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Tie Obama 49% Romney 49% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 3.0+   Obama 50.7%(+1.7%)  Romney 47.7% (-1.3%)

Virginia:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Romney 2.0+  Obama 48% Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 3.9+  Obama 51.6%(+3.6%)  Romney 47.7% (-2.3%)

Wisconsin:
Rasmussen(10/29) -- Tie   Tie Obama 49% Romney 49% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 6.7+  Obama 52.8%(+3.8%) Romney 45.9%(-3.1%)
Yes about wisconsin they were wrong a lots.


New Hampshire:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Obama 2.0+  Obama 48% Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 5.6+   Obama 52%((+4%) Romney 46.4%(-3.6%)


North Carolina:
Rasmussen(10/25) -- Romney 6.0+   Obama 46% Romney 52%
Actual -- Romney 2.0+  Obama 48.4%(+2.4%) Romney 50.4%(+1.6%)
Especially this poll was conducted at 10/25. 12 days gap with Election day.



Iowa:
Rasmussen(10/30) --- Romney 1+  Obama 48% Romney 49%
Actual --- Obama 5+   Obama 52%(+4%) Romney 46.3%(-2.7%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/29. 8 days before Election Day.


Colorado:
Rasmussen(10/29) -- Romney 3.0+ Obama 47  Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual --- Obama 5+      Obama 51.5%(+4.5%) Romney (-3.9%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/29. 8 days before Election Day.
(ARG 10/25-28, it was Obama 47% Romney 48%)


Nevada:
Rasmussen(10/23) -- Obama 2.0+   Obama 50% Romney 48% (Margin of Error 3.5%)
Actual -- Obama 6.7+   Obama 52.4%(+2.4%) Romney 45.7%(-2.3%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/23. 145 days before Election Day.
(NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll(10/23-10/24) It was similar with Rasmussen
(Obama 50% Romney 47%)

[StatesPoll]

And Rasmussen wasn't that bad about PA/FL/MI/MN, Esp Poll was conducted 2weeks before election day.
(Michigan 5 days before election day)

1. Pennsylvania
Rasmussen 10/24 500LV  Obama 51% Romney 46%  (MOE 4.5%)
Final Results      Obama 52%(+1%) Romney 46.6%(+0.6%)

2. Florida
Rasmussen 10/25  750 LV  Obama 48% Romney 50% (MOE 4%)
Final Results  Obama 50%(+2%) Romney 46.6%(-0.9%)

3. Michigan
Rasmussen 11/1  750 LV  Obama 52% Romney 47%  (MOE 4%)
Final Results  Obama 54.2%(+2.2%) Romney 44.7%(-2.3%)

4. Minnesota
Rasmussen 10/21  500 LV  Obama 51% Romney 46%  (MOE 4.5%)
Final Results  Obama 52.7%(+1.7%) Romney 45.0%(-1.0%)