NM: Tom Udall reconsiders run for New Mexico senate

[minionofmidas]

Hopefully, with Richardson not interested, it will be Udall vs Pearce. BTW, how does someone as economically psycho as Pearce represent NM-02 in the first place? Hispanics aren't their own throat-cutters, surely, or is NM-02 not very Hispanic?

Dave

The three districts are about similarly hispanic, actually, the difference being that NM-03's Hispanics are typically US citizens of many generations standing, while NM-02's are typically first-generation immigrants who don't vote much - many aren't entitled to.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Udall wouldn't be a bad candidate, far from it, but he wouldn't be as good a one as seems to be commonly assumed.

He was up by like 20 points in the last poll.

Not especially relevant to my point (other than as proof that he's certainly not a bad candidate).

Basically, he's known, but not really well-known. There's a lot that could be used to damage him as a candidate, though whether it'd be enough to prevent him from winning is a different question.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hopefully, with Richardson not interested, it will be Udall vs Pearce. BTW, how does someone as economically psycho as Pearce represent NM-02 in the first place? Hispanics aren't their own throat-cutters, surely, or is NM-02 not very Hispanic?

Dave

The three districts are about similarly hispanic, actually, the difference being that NM-03's Hispanics are typically US citizens of many generations standing, while NM-02's are typically first-generation immigrants who don't vote much - many aren't entitled to.

Good explanation of why NM is "upside down" politically (following other states' patterns it'd get more conservative the further north you went, not south)

[minionofmidas]

Hopefully, with Richardson not interested, it will be Udall vs Pearce. BTW, how does someone as economically psycho as Pearce represent NM-02 in the first place? Hispanics aren't their own throat-cutters, surely, or is NM-02 not very Hispanic?

Dave

The three districts are about similarly hispanic, actually, the difference being that NM-03's Hispanics are typically US citizens of many generations standing, while NM-02's are typically first-generation immigrants who don't vote much - many aren't entitled to.

Good explanation of why NM is "upside down" politically (following other states' patterns it'd get more conservative the further north you went, not south)

I think I'm somewhat overstating the case in the above post, though. While Little Texas' and Las Cruces' Hispanics are "Mexicans" rather than "Spaniards" (as in the North of the state), a majority of them were born in the US. Of course, they probably still have lower turnout than the Northerners... but they probably have a larger Republican minority amongst them as well. Maybe something to do with the basis of Little Texas' economy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Little Texas is a very interesting area, politically at least.

[Person Man]

Is little Texas the Cimmaron valley? I always thought of Northern NM being more liberal, with Taos and Santa Fe and Southern NM being conservative with towns such as Roswell and Columbus.

[minionofmidas]

Little Texas is the country along the border with Texas.

[Sam Spade]

Little Texas is the country along the border with Texas.

Yep. 

Anyway, Udall's entry is still at 50-50 or less, so I read (from the NM politicos) because he wants solid assurances Richardson will not enter (some of which I hear is solid, others which say not so solid) and wants a cleared primary, i.e., forcing Marty Chavez from the race. 

Marty Chavez's rhetoric is such right now that it may take "making him an offer he can't refuse" to get him out, primarily because I suspect Chavez knows that this may be his last chance for higher office and because Chavez probably knows that he can beat Udall (although he would be an underdog)

What I believe is Udall's biggest weakness (unlike what Al pointed out) is on display through what I've pointed out above.  In the past and in the present, he has shown a real knack for wanting to avoid major battles in his elections.  I suspect that's the reason why he backed out of running so quickly in the first place.  Right now, he wants the Democratic nomination to be handed to him on a silver platter, and in New Mexico, non-incumbent elections are rarely handed out on silver platters, unless your name is Bill Richardson.

Although electorally I suspect he is superior to Chavez, I have to wonder whether he has the stomach for the bare-knuckled brawl that any race against either Pearce or Wilson will be.  Pearce won a highly contested primary against Ed Tinsley in 2000, where he was considered an underdog and where the outgoing Congressman Joe Skeen endorsed Tinsley.  Wilson's fighting abilities are pretty much legendary.

Just a thought.

Btw, I was going to comment on the other thread, but here is a good place as any.  If a poll is showing Chavez leading by 4 against Wilson, after his own internal poll showed him up by only 1, you should know what to do with that poll.  Not that this applies to the other polls, however. 

[MarkWarner08]

Little Texas is the country along the border with Texas.

Yep. 

Anyway, Udall's entry is still at 50-50 or less, so I read (from the NM politicos) because he wants solid assurances Richardson will not enter (some of which I hear is solid, others which say not so solid) and wants a cleared primary, i.e., forcing Marty Chavez from the race. 

Marty Chavez's rhetoric is such right now that it may take "making him an offer he can't refuse" to get him out, primarily because I suspect Chavez knows that this may be his last chance for higher office and because Chavez probably knows that he can beat Udall (although he would be an underdog)

What I believe is Udall's biggest weakness (unlike what Al pointed out) is on display through what I've pointed out above.  In the past and in the present, he has shown a real knack for wanting to avoid major battles in his elections.  I suspect that's the reason why he backed out of running so quickly in the first place.  Right now, he wants the Democratic nomination to be handed to him on a silver platter, and in New Mexico, non-incumbent elections are rarely handed out on silver platters, unless your name is Bill Richardson.

Although electorally I suspect he is superior to Chavez, I have to wonder whether he has the stomach for the bare-knuckled brawl that any race against either Pearce or Wilson will be.  Pearce won a highly contested primary against Ed Tinsley in 2000, where he was considered an underdog and where the outgoing Congressman Joe Skeen endorsed Tinsley.  Wilson's fighting abilities are pretty much legendary.

Just a thought.

Btw, I was going to comment on the other thread, but here is a good place as any.  If a poll is showing Chavez leading by 4 against Wilson, after his own internal poll showed him up by only 1, you should know what to do with that poll.  Not that this applies to the other polls, however. 

Interesting point about Udall's history of risk-adverse politcal behavior. In 1997 Udall bowed out of the NM-03 special election, much to the dismay of Democrats who expected him to romp the Republican sacrificial lamb. Shockingly, the feckless Republican actually beat the Democratic nominee. Memo to Democrats: Don't nominate corrupt a Democrat who angers latte liberals. When Udall ran in '98, he quickly marginalized the Green and routed Bill Redmond, the Republicans' 1/2 term wonder.

Chavez is exactly as you've described him -- an ambitious, agressive politician who is loath to reliquinsh his last chance at higher office. There's nothing Schumer or Udall can promise him that would dissuade the Mayor from running for the Senate. The governorsip is nearly a fait accompli for Denish, the CD01 Democratic primary is already quite crowded, and Bingaman is unlikerly to step down in the near future. 


Does Udall have the cojones to take on Chavez? I'm guessing no. After years of toiling in the minority, Udall is finally a House Appropriations cardinal. Udall is practically invincible in his home district. Will he give up a safe seat for a chance at the Senate? Sherrod Brown did, but only after the DSCC muscled Hackett out of the way.

One last electoral note. Didn't Skeen retire in 2002?

[Aizen]

I'll be more blunt - Tom Udall seems to be a pansy. He has a great chance of winning the senate. What's wrong with engaging in some epic battles? It's not as if he'd lose miserably.

[minionofmidas]

Shockingly, the feckless Republican actually beat the Democratic nominee. Memo to Democrats: Don't nominate corrupt a Democrat who angers latte liberals.

See also, Max Burns vs Champ Walker, GA-12, 2002.